Have you ever thought of how much you can withdraw monthly/yearly from your portfolio, during your retirement?

At first, figure out how long your retirement might be. Now choose:
  • Do you want to preserve your initial capital, adjusted for inflation?
  • You don't care about eating away all your invested capital at the end of your retirement?

In the first case, look at the Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

In the second case, look at the Safe Withdrawal Rate
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Each N-years timeframe has been considered to calculate withdrawal rates.
For instance, with a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm is covering each 20 year timeframe starting from the beginning, and continuing month after month.

Each N-years timeframe has been considered to calculate withdrawal rates.
For instance, with a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm is covering each 20 year timeframe starting from the beginning, and continuing month after month.

Each N-years timeframe has been considered to calculate withdrawal rates.
For instance, with a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm is covering each 20 year timeframe starting from the beginning, and continuing month after month.

PWRs and SWRs are calculated over timeframes ending at October 2024.
For instance, with the 20 years timeframe, the algorithm is calculating withdrawal rates from November 2004 to October 2024.

Swipe left to see all data
Weighting %
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)
Portfolio Stocks Bonds Comm 10
Years
20
Years
30
Years
40
Years
50
Years
60
Years
70
Years
80
Years
10
Years
20
Years
30
Years
40
Years
50
Years
60
Years
70
Years
80
Years
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 100 0 0
0.000
0.000
1.062
2.493
2.391
2.526
2.581
2.562
5.426
3.326
2.895
2.782
2.693
2.636
2.615
2.605
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 90 10 0
0.000
0.000
1.318
2.796
2.665
2.817
2.880
2.858
6.307
3.861
3.312
3.157
3.035
2.955
2.926
2.911
Warren Buffett Portfolio 90 10 0
0.000
0.000
1.785
2.688
2.534
2.717
2.792
2.763
6.411
3.787
3.237
3.084
2.958
2.869
2.838
2.823
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 80 20 0
0.000
0.000
1.509
2.873
2.901
3.072
3.144
3.118
7.252
4.422
3.731
3.519
3.354
3.245
3.205
3.184
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 70 30 0
0.000
0.000
1.644
2.871
2.954
3.176
3.188
3.140
7.642
4.674
3.961
3.692
3.453
3.352
3.306
3.264
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60 40 0
0.000
0.000
1.731
2.786
2.805
3.028
3.037
2.973
7.811
4.748
3.999
3.616
3.369
3.251
3.194
3.140
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 50 50 0
0.000
0.000
1.778
2.570
2.621
2.842
2.846
2.760
7.870
4.811
3.953
3.526
3.267
3.130
3.057
2.989
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 40 60 0
0.000
0.000
1.544
1.846
2.398
2.597
2.572
2.488
7.824
4.823
3.851
3.423
3.114
2.950
2.873
2.808
Golden Butterfly 40 40 20
0.000
0.000
0.905
1.848
2.158
2.340
2.357
2.409
7.667
4.543
3.589
3.153
2.897
2.742
2.653
2.593
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 30 70 0
0.000
0.000
1.128
1.046
1.937
2.154
2.172
2.142
7.771
4.719
3.733
3.155
2.763
2.589
2.505
2.446
Desert Portfolio 30 60 10
0.000
0.000
0.674
1.392
1.910
2.091
2.102
2.044
7.646
4.557
3.565
3.126
2.736
2.571
2.485
2.431
All Weather Portfolio 30 55 15
0.000
0.000
0.365
1.022
1.817
1.972
1.916
1.845
7.495
4.502
3.449
2.932
2.621
2.464
2.388
2.313
Permanent Portfolio 25 50 25
0.000
0.000
0.327
0.976
1.526
1.636
1.632
1.738
7.639
4.392
3.304
2.679
2.354
2.193
2.094
2.038
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 20 80 0
0.000
0.000
0.667
0.227
1.274
1.687
1.659
1.697
7.704
4.601
3.435
2.726
2.337
2.182
2.096
2.037
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 10 90 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.473
1.175
1.026
1.140
7.618
4.145
2.929
2.255
1.903
1.758
1.674
1.616
Short Term Treasury 0 100 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.444
0.345
0.588
7.569
3.462
2.339
1.793
1.486
1.347
1.250
1.180
10-year Treasury 0 100 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.386
0.000
0.000
7.493
3.585
2.375
1.737
1.405
1.286
1.222
1.180
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 0 100 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.629
0.257
0.450
7.491
3.660
2.461
1.834
1.513
1.384
1.307
1.252
Gold 0 0 100
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
4.590
1.726
1.063
0.912
1.107
0.887
0.710
0.611
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Weighting %
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)
Portfolio Stocks Bonds Comm 10
Years
20
Years
30
Years
40
Years
50
Years
60
Years
70
Years
80
Years
10
Years
20
Years
30
Years
40
Years
50
Years
60
Years
70
Years
80
Years
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 100 0 0
0.000
0.205
2.343
2.493
2.391
2.526
2.581
2.562
5.426
3.326
2.895
2.782
2.693
2.636
2.615
2.605
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 90 10 0
0.000
0.622
2.649
2.796
2.665
2.817
2.880
2.858
6.307
3.861
3.312
3.157
3.035
2.955
2.926
2.911
Warren Buffett Portfolio 90 10 0
0.000
0.319
2.576
2.688
2.534
2.717
2.792
2.763
6.411
3.787
3.237
3.084
2.958
2.869
2.838
2.823
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 80 20 0
0.000
1.046
2.931
2.873
2.901
3.072
3.144
3.118
7.252
4.422
3.731
3.519
3.354
3.245
3.205
3.184
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 70 30 0
0.000
0.867
2.912
2.888
3.074
3.267
3.349
3.319
7.642
4.674
3.961
3.692
3.518
3.486
3.431
3.403
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60 40 0
0.000
0.646
2.793
2.882
3.161
3.364
3.396
3.404
7.811
4.748
3.999
3.707
3.521
3.590
3.531
3.488
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 50 50 0
0.000
0.368
2.654
2.570
2.866
3.004
3.047
3.060
7.968
4.811
4.022
3.702
3.438
3.287
3.219
3.170
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 40 60 0
0.000
0.000
2.116
1.846
2.424
2.597
2.655
2.674
8.111
4.845
3.962
3.539
3.114
2.950
2.873
2.819
Golden Butterfly 40 40 20
0.233
1.758
2.344
2.458
2.847
2.908
2.963
2.983
8.754
5.216
4.096
3.560
3.286
3.168
3.105
3.069
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 30 70 0
0.000
0.000
1.395
1.046
1.937
2.154
2.232
2.256
8.240
4.842
3.862
3.155
2.763
2.589
2.505
2.446
Desert Portfolio 30 60 10
0.000
0.759
1.379
1.392
1.966
2.135
2.219
2.252
8.611
4.997
3.757
3.126
2.736
2.571
2.485
2.431
All Weather Portfolio 30 55 15
0.000
0.000
1.000
1.022
1.823
2.052
2.154
2.191
8.501
4.932
3.630
2.932
2.621
2.464
2.388
2.343
Permanent Portfolio 25 50 25
0.000
0.042
0.458
0.976
1.526
1.636
1.749
1.811
8.368
4.590
3.304
2.679
2.354
2.193
2.094
2.038
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 20 80 0
0.000
0.000
0.667
0.227
1.274
1.687
1.737
1.799
8.351
4.646
3.435
2.726
2.337
2.182
2.096
2.037
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 10 90 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.473
1.175
1.250
1.306
8.103
4.145
2.929
2.255
1.903
1.758
1.674
1.616
Short Term Treasury 0 100 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.444
0.653
0.588
7.569
3.462
2.339
1.793
1.486
1.347
1.250
1.180
10-year Treasury 0 100 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.596
0.809
0.858
7.643
3.585
2.375
1.737
1.405
1.286
1.222
1.180
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 0 100 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.663
0.805
0.848
7.812
3.660
2.461
1.834
1.513
1.384
1.307
1.252
Gold 0 0 100
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.395
4.590
1.726
1.063
0.912
1.277
1.149
0.992
0.928
Swipe left to see all data
Weighting %
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)
Portfolio Stocks Bonds Comm 10
Years
20
Years
30
Years
10
Years
20
Years
30
Years
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 100 0 0
0.000
2.010
5.841
7.497
4.682
6.866
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 90 10 0
0.000
2.170
5.807
7.923
4.928
6.890
Warren Buffett Portfolio 90 10 0
0.000
1.815
5.735
7.584
4.645
6.627
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 80 20 0
0.000
2.318
5.740
8.357
5.170
6.891
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 70 30 0
0.000
2.451
5.639
8.797
5.407
6.705
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60 40 0
0.000
2.567
5.381
9.242
5.637
6.465
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 50 50 0
0.000
2.663
4.872
9.691
5.857
6.215
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 40 60 0
0.000
2.736
4.324
10.127
6.067
5.954
Golden Butterfly 40 40 20
2.208
4.552
4.789
11.495
7.357
6.088
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 30 70 0
0.713
2.390
3.734
9.890
6.244
5.685
Desert Portfolio 30 60 10
1.378
3.080
3.930
10.703
6.639
5.911
All Weather Portfolio 30 55 15
1.035
3.460
4.425
10.257
6.995
5.985
Permanent Portfolio 25 50 25
0.720
3.181
3.455
10.788
6.400
5.117
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 20 80 0
0.091
1.693
3.100
9.645
6.292
5.409
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 10 90 0
0.000
0.933
2.418
9.393
6.035
5.123
Short Term Treasury 0 100 0
0.000
0.000
0.488
9.320
4.879
4.248
10-year Treasury 0 100 0
0.000
0.494
2.194
8.494
5.643
4.719
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 0 100 0
0.000
0.110
1.685
9.085
5.761
4.809
Gold 0 0 100
0.000
0.000
0.000
4.590
1.726
1.063
Swipe left to see all data
Weighting %
PWR (%) - Ending at Oct 2024
SWR (%) - Ending at Oct 2024
Portfolio Stocks Bonds Comm 10
Years
20
Years
30
Years
40
Years
50
Years
60
Years
70
Years
80
Years
10
Years
20
Years
30
Years
40
Years
50
Years
60
Years
70
Years
80
Years
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 100 0 0
8.430
6.250
7.927
9.293
7.989
3.865
7.416
8.216
14.395
8.046
8.840
9.688
8.159
3.974
7.480
8.241
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 90 10 0
7.625
5.919
7.567
8.963
7.569
3.779
6.761
7.347
13.977
7.915
8.586
9.414
7.767
3.907
6.838
7.381
Warren Buffett Portfolio 90 10 0
7.941
5.601
7.412
9.298
6.955
3.421
6.483
7.353
14.069
7.559
8.448
9.755
7.156
3.554
6.566
7.389
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 80 20 0
6.782
5.540
7.166
8.592
7.130
3.673
6.124
6.496
13.548
7.761
8.306
9.111
7.364
3.825
6.218
6.541
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 70 30 0
5.899
5.110
6.722
8.181
6.674
3.544
5.506
5.669
13.111
7.584
8.004
8.781
6.952
3.726
5.621
5.729
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60 40 0
4.976
4.626
6.236
7.728
6.200
3.392
4.907
4.874
12.664
7.385
7.681
8.425
6.533
3.612
5.050
4.956
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 50 50 0
4.012
4.085
5.705
7.232
5.707
3.214
4.327
4.118
12.211
7.165
7.340
8.046
6.109
3.482
4.507
4.229
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 40 60 0
3.005
3.483
5.129
6.692
5.194
3.008
3.766
3.406
11.751
6.925
6.982
7.646
5.681
3.338
3.993
3.556
Golden Butterfly 40 40 20
3.616
5.013
5.642
6.521
6.445
4.513
4.732
3.941
11.980
8.191
7.168
7.310
6.841
4.744
4.874
4.030
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 30 70 0
1.955
2.818
4.503
6.103
4.657
2.771
3.219
2.740
11.286
6.665
6.612
7.227
5.251
3.180
3.509
2.944
Desert Portfolio 30 60 10
2.515
3.507
4.708
5.850
4.672
3.118
3.414
2.804
11.349
7.149
6.629
6.886
5.236
3.492
3.673
2.985
All Weather Portfolio 30 55 15
1.938
3.705
5.486
7.186
4.897
3.136
3.211
2.667
11.329
7.452
7.365
8.134
5.381
3.451
3.433
2.825
Permanent Portfolio 25 50 25
2.980
4.355
4.271
4.740
4.002
3.225
3.125
2.353
11.560
7.846
6.070
5.789
4.631
3.635
3.412
2.562
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 20 80 0
0.861
2.086
3.826
5.464
4.094
2.498
2.685
2.120
10.816
6.388
6.230
6.792
4.823
3.008
3.057
2.397
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 10 90 0
0.000
1.284
3.094
4.769
3.499
2.183
2.157
1.541
10.344
6.095
5.840
6.344
4.398
2.823
2.638
1.918
Short Term Treasury 0 100 0
0.000
0.000
0.729
2.128
2.072
1.546
1.534
0.803
9.320
4.944
4.391
4.529
3.629
2.697
2.415
1.518
10-year Treasury 0 100 0
0.000
0.623
3.233
5.303
3.085
1.901
1.625
0.968
9.838
6.141
6.268
6.993
4.031
2.591
2.161
1.412
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 0 100 0
0.000
0.409
2.302
4.014
2.867
1.819
1.627
0.994
9.870
5.788
5.443
5.885
3.978
2.627
2.252
1.506
Gold 0 0 100
4.638
7.495
2.765
1.470
1.147
3.137
1.964
0.946
11.316
10.392
4.073
2.434
1.940
3.655
2.350
1.271
Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits