US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 31 January 2024

The US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and is allocated for 90% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - Jan 2024, the portfolio granted a 8.78% annualized return, with a -80.66% maximum drawdown.

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.312% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.26% of cases, and for 50 years in the 91.2% of cases .

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio

The US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio contains 90% Stocks, 10% Bonds.

Weight Asset Class Category
90.00 % Total US Stock Market Stocks
10.00 % Total US Bond Market Fixed Income

Over the last 30 years (last update: January 2024), the portfolio has returned 9.48% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.68%.

7.871% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at January 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Jan 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Feb 2004
31 Jan 2024 5.329 7.514 9.12
[ 6.37 ]
-46.68
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
30 Years 1 Feb 1994
31 Jan 2024 6.773 7.871 9.48
[ 6.79 ]
-46.68
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
40 Years 1 Feb 1984
31 Jan 2024 8.366 8.848 10.56
[ 7.54 ]
-46.68
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
50 Years 1 Feb 1974
31 Jan 2024 5.180 5.396 10.76
[ 6.65 ]
-46.68
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
60 Years 1 Feb 1964
31 Jan 2024 4.055 4.196 9.96
[ 5.82 ]
-46.68
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
70 Years 1 Feb 1954
31 Jan 2024 7.873 7.956 10.53
[ 6.74 ]
-46.68
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2024

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Jan 2024)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio?

Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
May 1901
0.859
Jul 1901
2.241
Sep 1929
3.051
Sep 1929
3.861
Sep 1929
5.211 5.531 6.151 8.757
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.318
Jun 1902
2.155
Jun 1902
2.981
Sep 1929
3.146
Sep 1929
3.312
Sep 1929
4.399 4.658 5.171 7.216
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.796
Sep 1929
2.886
Sep 1929
2.977
Sep 1929
3.067
Sep 1929
3.157
Sep 1929
4.035 4.229 4.699 6.244
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.665
Sep 1929
2.758
Sep 1929
2.850
Sep 1929
2.942
Sep 1929
3.034
Sep 1929
3.832 4.040 4.428 5.696
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.817
Sep 1929
2.852
Sep 1929
2.886
Sep 1929
2.921
Sep 1929
2.955
Sep 1929
3.863 4.136 4.608 5.761
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.880
Sep 1929
2.892
Sep 1929
2.903
Sep 1929
2.914
Sep 1929
2.926
Sep 1929
3.813 4.043 4.557 5.867
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: Feb 1924 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.622
Sep 1929
1.431
Sep 1929
2.241
Sep 1929
3.051
Sep 1929
3.861
Sep 1929
5.066 5.394 6.179 8.858
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.649
Sep 1929
2.815
Sep 1929
2.981
Sep 1929
3.146
Sep 1929
3.312
Sep 1929
4.285 4.595 5.269 7.732
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.796
Sep 1929
2.886
Sep 1929
2.977
Sep 1929
3.067
Sep 1929
3.157
Sep 1929
4.001 4.218 4.727 6.718
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.665
Sep 1929
2.758
Sep 1929
2.850
Sep 1929
2.942
Sep 1929
3.034
Sep 1929
3.759 3.997 4.372 5.944
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.817
Sep 1929
2.852
Sep 1929
2.886
Sep 1929
2.921
Sep 1929
2.955
Sep 1929
4.196 4.425 4.939 6.437
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.880
Sep 1929
2.892
Sep 1929
2.903
Sep 1929
2.914
Sep 1929
2.926
Sep 1929
4.070 4.503 5.494 7.032
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: Feb 1974 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.170
Apr 2000
2.860
Apr 2000
3.549
Apr 2000
4.239
Apr 2000
4.928
Apr 2000
5.607 6.341 7.830 9.619
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
5.160
Feb 1974
5.366
Feb 1974
5.572
Feb 1974
5.778
Feb 1974
5.983
Feb 1974
7.223 7.446 7.921 8.590
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.955%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.926%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.312%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.157%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.034%
99.91
99.90
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.861%
99.86
99.78
99.60
95% Succ.
3.832%
99.11
95% Succ.
3.863%
99.00
95% Succ.
3.813%
4.00 %
99.94
99.26
95% Succ.
4.399%
95.80
95% Succ.
4.035%
91.20
90% Succ.
4.040%
93.11
90% Succ.
4.136%
90.68
90% Succ.
4.043%
4.50 %
99.69
93.57
90% Succ.
4.658%
83.80
80% Succ.
4.699%
78.27
82.47
80% Succ.
4.608%
81.26
80% Succ.
4.557%
5.00 %
97.56
95% Succ.
5.211%
83.15
80% Succ.
5.171%
74.45
67.21
70.21
69.14
5.50 %
90.61
90% Succ.
5.531%
75.71
64.73
54.36
50% Succ.
5.696%
56.26
50% Succ.
5.761%
57.52
50% Succ.
5.867%
6.00 %
81.91
80% Succ.
6.151%
68.54
54.27
50% Succ.
6.244%
44.10
45.44
46.99
6.50 %
75.97
61.43
45.80
36.35
38.01
40.28
7.00 %
71.78
53.04
50% Succ.
7.216%
39.10
30.94
32.47
34.97
7.50 %
67.46
45.67
32.99
26.74
26.83
27.96
8.00 %
60.64
38.57
28.13
18.74
16.55
16.33
Period: Feb 1924 - Jan 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.955%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.926%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.312%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.157%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.034%
99.79
99.72
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.861%
99.76
99.58
99.17
95% Succ.
3.759%
98.34
97.78
4.00 %
99.90
98.69
95% Succ.
4.285%
95.01
95% Succ.
4.001%
89.85
80% Succ.
4.372%
96.47
95% Succ.
4.196%
95.29
95% Succ.
4.070%
4.50 %
99.48
91.80
90% Succ.
4.595%
84.60
80% Succ.
4.727%
76.71
88.36
80% Succ.
4.939%
90.03
90% Succ.
4.503%
5.00 %
96.05
95% Succ.
5.066%
83.95
80% Succ.
5.269%
75.31
66.56
78.59
84.21
80% Succ.
5.494%
5.50 %
87.72
77.41
66.99
57.24
50% Succ.
5.944%
68.81
79.78
6.00 %
81.27
80% Succ.
6.179%
71.11
60.33
49.42
58.21
50% Succ.
6.437%
69.53
6.50 %
76.48
66.59
53.54
50% Succ.
6.718%
40.93
49.27
61.50
7.00 %
72.01
60.64
46.05
34.61
40.54
50.42
50% Succ.
7.032%
7.50 %
68.16
53.39
50% Succ.
7.732%
38.83
28.45
33.68
42.38
8.00 %
61.71
45.18
32.32
21.96
23.91
28.53
Period: Feb 1974 - Jan 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.928%
100.00
5.00 %
99.72
100.00
5.50 %
95.84
95% Succ.
5.607%
100.00
100% Succ.
5.983%
6.00 %
91.97
90% Succ.
6.341%
99.59
6.50 %
89.20
98.76
7.00 %
84.76
97.51
95% Succ.
7.223%
7.50 %
81.99
80% Succ.
7.830%
88.38
80% Succ.
7.921%
8.00 %
78.39
75.52
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2024

Related Pages

For the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com