Last Update: 30 September 2024
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio invests in 4 asset classes and is allocated for 25% on Stocks.
In the period Jan 1871 - Sep 2024, the portfolio granted a 5.7% annualized return, with a -31.62% maximum drawdown.
Key Points
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.304% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 77.59% of cases, and for 50 years in the 32.1% of cases .
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio contains 25% Stocks, 50% Bonds, 25% Commodities.
Weight | Asset Class | Category |
---|---|---|
25.00 % | Total US Stock Market | Stocks |
25.00 % | US T-Bills (1-3mths) | Fixed Income |
25.00 % | US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries | Fixed Income |
25.00 % | Gold | Commodities |
Over the last 30 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.76% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.
6.023% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at September 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Sep 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
10 Years |
1 Oct 2014 |
30 Sep 2024 | 3.128 | 11.665 |
6.10 [ 3.17 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
20 Years |
1 Oct 2004 |
30 Sep 2024 | 4.456 | 7.931 |
6.88 [ 4.21 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
30 Years |
1 Oct 1994 |
30 Sep 2024 | 4.240 | 6.023 |
6.76 [ 4.14 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
40 Years |
1 Oct 1984 |
30 Sep 2024 | 4.786 | 5.828 |
7.30 [ 4.40 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
50 Years |
1 Oct 1974 |
30 Sep 2024 | 4.331 | 4.956 |
8.11 [ 4.23 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
60 Years |
1 Oct 1964 |
30 Sep 2024 | 3.225 | 3.631 |
7.80 [ 3.72 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
70 Years |
1 Oct 1954 |
30 Sep 2024 | 3.104 | 3.389 |
7.31 [ 3.60 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
80 Years |
1 Oct 1944 |
30 Sep 2024 | 2.354 | 2.562 |
6.97 [ 3.19 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Oct 1907 |
0.000 Dec 1908 |
1.801 Dec 1910 |
4.932 Jul 1911 |
7.639 Dec 1915 |
8.867 | 9.821 | 10.619 | 11.703 | |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1898 |
0.014 Jul 1900 |
1.728 Jul 1901 |
3.301 Jul 1901 |
4.392 Jun 1911 |
4.779 | 4.959 | 5.388 | 6.885 | ||
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.327 Jul 1890 |
1.184 May 1940 |
1.910 May 1940 |
2.637 May 1940 |
3.304 Feb 1937 |
3.546 | 3.706 | 3.929 | 5.025 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.976 Sep 1936 |
1.420 Nov 1936 |
1.845 Feb 1937 |
2.262 Feb 1937 |
2.679 Feb 1937 |
2.967 | 3.128 | 3.319 | 4.134 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.526 Feb 1936 |
1.737 Dec 1936 |
1.945 Dec 1936 |
2.152 Feb 1937 |
2.354 Feb 1937 |
2.617 | 2.764 | 2.919 | 3.677 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.635 Feb 1937 |
1.775 Feb 1937 |
1.914 Feb 1937 |
2.054 Feb 1937 |
2.193 Feb 1937 |
2.417 | 2.527 | 2.665 | 3.352 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.632 Jul 1901 |
1.793 Jul 1901 |
1.922 Feb 1937 |
2.008 Feb 1937 |
2.094 Feb 1937 |
2.272 | 2.370 | 2.481 | 3.053 | ||
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.738 Jan 1899 |
1.846 Jul 1901 |
1.924 Feb 1937 |
1.981 Feb 1937 |
2.038 Feb 1937 |
2.189 | 2.256 | 2.361 | 2.820 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 1936 |
0.864 Mar 1939 |
3.679 Jun 1939 |
6.258 Feb 1946 |
8.368 Feb 1946 |
9.475 | 10.036 | 10.760 | 11.625 | |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.042 Jul 1933 |
1.239 Mar 1937 |
2.367 Mar 1937 |
3.495 Mar 1937 |
4.590 Jan 1940 |
4.832 | 5.255 | 5.959 | 6.785 | ||
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.458 May 1940 |
1.184 May 1940 |
1.910 May 1940 |
2.637 May 1940 |
3.304 Feb 1937 |
3.482 | 3.713 | 4.291 | 5.032 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.976 Sep 1936 |
1.420 Nov 1936 |
1.845 Feb 1937 |
2.262 Feb 1937 |
2.679 Feb 1937 |
2.811 | 2.980 | 3.251 | 4.170 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.526 Feb 1936 |
1.737 Dec 1936 |
1.945 Dec 1936 |
2.152 Feb 1937 |
2.354 Feb 1937 |
2.474 | 2.604 | 2.848 | 3.746 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.635 Feb 1937 |
1.775 Feb 1937 |
1.914 Feb 1937 |
2.054 Feb 1937 |
2.193 Feb 1937 |
2.303 | 2.367 | 2.559 | 3.392 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.749 Feb 1937 |
1.835 Feb 1937 |
1.922 Feb 1937 |
2.008 Feb 1937 |
2.094 Feb 1937 |
2.194 | 2.237 | 2.370 | 3.072 | ||
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.811 Feb 1937 |
1.868 Feb 1937 |
1.924 Feb 1937 |
1.981 Feb 1937 |
2.038 Feb 1937 |
2.119 | 2.145 | 2.208 | 2.573 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.720 Oct 2012 |
3.268 Oct 2012 |
5.817 Oct 2012 |
8.365 Oct 2012 |
10.788 Aug 1987 |
11.136 | 11.318 | 11.559 | 12.254 | |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.181 Aug 1987 |
3.986 Aug 1987 |
4.790 Aug 1987 |
5.595 Aug 1987 |
6.399 Aug 1987 |
6.761 | 6.874 | 7.078 | 7.430 | ||
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.455 Aug 1987 |
3.871 Aug 1987 |
4.286 Aug 1987 |
4.701 Aug 1987 |
5.117 Aug 1987 |
5.322 | 5.422 | 5.538 | 5.930 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.354% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.193% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.094% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.038% |
||||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.679% |
97.03
|
95% Succ. 2.617% |
91.30
|
90% Succ. 2.527% |
78.23
|
65.24
|
50% Succ. 2.820% |
||||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.304% |
94.22
|
90% Succ. 3.128% |
75.20
|
59.95
|
50% Succ. 3.352% |
51.69
|
50% Succ. 3.053% |
43.34
|
||||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.43
|
95% Succ. 3.546% |
69.69
|
59.31
|
50% Succ. 3.677% |
41.12
|
30.72
|
31.15
|
||||||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.392% |
77.59
|
58.20
|
50% Succ. 4.134% |
32.10
|
22.29
|
18.69
|
16.14
|
||||||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
99.75
|
95% Succ. 4.779% |
67.63
|
35.80
|
19.74
|
10.92
|
10.64
|
10.84
|
|||||||
5.00 % |
100.00
|
89.04
|
80% Succ. 5.388% |
50.74
|
50% Succ. 5.025% |
27.01
|
9.71
|
7.90
|
6.76
|
5.64
|
||||||
5.50 % |
100.00
|
78.70
|
37.42
|
13.25
|
6.74
|
4.09
|
2.29
|
0.68
|
||||||||
6.00 % |
100.00
|
71.98
|
25.50
|
8.35
|
3.37
|
0.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
6.50 % |
100.00
|
55.54
|
50% Succ. 6.885% |
13.73
|
5.27
|
0.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
7.00 % |
100.00
|
47.32
|
7.81
|
2.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.639% |
31.32
|
5.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
8.00 % |
98.96
|
19.74
|
2.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.354% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.193% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.094% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.038% |
||||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.679% |
93.84
|
90% Succ. 2.604% |
83.58
|
80% Succ. 2.559% |
69.53
|
56.85
|
50% Succ. 2.573% |
||||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.304% |
89.60
|
80% Succ. 3.251% |
74.71
|
65.49
|
50% Succ. 3.392% |
52.63
|
50% Succ. 3.072% |
36.51
|
||||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.29
|
90% Succ. 3.713% |
77.25
|
68.39
|
50% Succ. 3.746% |
39.09
|
15.24
|
12.86
|
||||||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
82.28
|
80% Succ. 4.291% |
67.27
|
50% Succ. 4.170% |
24.13
|
4.37
|
0.55
|
0.00
|
||||||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
76.81
|
32.32
|
8.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
5.00 % |
100.00
|
92.61
|
90% Succ. 5.255% |
51.49
|
50% Succ. 5.032% |
21.08
|
1.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
5.50 % |
100.00
|
85.74
|
80% Succ. 5.959% |
33.77
|
5.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
6.00 % |
100.00
|
78.88
|
16.41
|
1.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
6.50 % |
100.00
|
55.67
|
50% Succ. 6.785% |
3.57
|
0.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
7.00 % |
100.00
|
45.27
|
0.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
7.50 % |
100.00
|
25.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
8.00 % |
100.00
|
10.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.117% |
||
5.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
82.57
|
80% Succ. 5.538% |
||
6.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.399% |
38.59
|
||
6.50 % |
100.00
|
98.34
|
95% Succ. 6.761% |
11.20
|
||
7.00 % |
100.00
|
83.66
|
80% Succ. 7.078% |
2.07
|
||
7.50 % |
100.00
|
43.77
|
0.00
|
|||
8.00 % |
100.00
|
14.13
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com