US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio: FIRE and Retirement Simulations
Simulation Settings
Period: January 1871 - April 2025
Last update as of 30 April 2025
Withdrawal: Monthly
Rebalancing: at each withdrawal
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
Results
January 1871 - April 2025
30 Years Stats
3.961%
Safe Withdrawal Rate
99.93%
4% Rule - Success
50 Years Stats
3.453%
Safe Withdrawal Rate
88.03%
4% Rule - Success
The US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and is allocated for 70% on Stocks.
In the period Jan 1871 - Apr 2025, the portfolio granted a 8.03% annualized return, with a -70.1% maximum drawdown.
Key Points
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.961% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.93% of cases, and for 50 years in the 88.03% of cases .
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio
The US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio contains 70% Stocks, 30% Bonds.
| Weight | Asset Class | Category |
|---|---|---|
| 70.00 % | Total US Stock Market | Stocks |
| 30.00 % | Total US Bond Market | Fixed Income |
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2025), the portfolio has returned 8.65% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -37.47%.
7.763% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2025: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Apr 2025 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 May 2015 |
30 Apr 2025 | 5.365 | 13.054 |
8.70 [ 5.44 ] |
-21.69 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 20 Years |
1 May 2005 |
30 Apr 2025 | 5.102 | 7.698 |
8.26 [ 5.59 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 30 Years |
1 May 1995 |
30 Apr 2025 | 6.402 | 7.763 |
8.65 [ 5.98 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 40 Years |
1 May 1985 |
30 Apr 2025 | 7.774 | 8.417 |
9.61 [ 6.64 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 50 Years |
1 May 1975 |
30 Apr 2025 | 6.098 | 6.392 |
10.26 [ 6.35 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 60 Years |
1 May 1965 |
30 Apr 2025 | 3.427 | 3.616 |
9.19 [ 5.04 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 70 Years |
1 May 1955 |
30 Apr 2025 | 4.949 | 5.070 |
9.29 [ 5.48 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 80 Years |
1 May 1945 |
30 Apr 2025 | 5.118 | 5.182 |
9.52 [ 5.64 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2025)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio?
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation.
The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1908 |
0.000 Jun 1910 |
1.783 Jul 1911 |
4.975 Jul 1911 |
7.642 Jan 1973 |
8.821 | 9.642 | 10.825 | 13.260 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1901 |
0.815 Jul 1901 |
2.326 Jul 1901 |
3.838 Jul 1901 |
4.674 Dec 1968 |
5.290 | 5.601 | 6.080 | 8.232 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.644 Jun 1902 |
2.355 Jun 1902 |
3.066 Jun 1902 |
3.764 Dec 1968 |
3.961 Dec 1968 |
4.394 | 4.607 | 5.022 | 6.694 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.871 Jul 1901 |
3.077 Jul 1901 |
3.282 Jul 1901 |
3.487 Jul 1901 |
3.692 Dec 1968 |
3.996 | 4.171 | 4.527 | 5.643 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.954 Jul 1901 |
3.079 Jul 1901 |
3.204 Jul 1901 |
3.329 Jul 1901 |
3.453 Jul 1901 |
3.762 | 3.940 | 4.243 | 5.127 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.176 Jul 1901 |
3.220 Jul 1901 |
3.264 Jul 1901 |
3.308 Jul 1901 |
3.352 Jul 1901 |
3.736 | 3.927 | 4.280 | 5.084 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.188 Jul 1901 |
3.217 Jul 1901 |
3.247 Jul 1901 |
3.277 Jul 1901 |
3.306 Jul 1901 |
3.690 | 3.875 | 4.260 | 5.168 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.140 Jul 1901 |
3.171 Jul 1901 |
3.202 Jul 1901 |
3.233 Jul 1901 |
3.264 Jul 1901 |
3.613 | 3.793 | 4.131 | 4.932 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1964 |
0.000 Oct 1964 |
2.786 Jul 1972 |
5.407 Jun 1972 |
7.642 Jan 1973 |
9.101 | 9.738 | 10.753 | 13.143 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.867 Apr 1962 |
2.171 Apr 1962 |
3.232 Sep 1929 |
3.993 Dec 1968 |
4.674 Dec 1968 |
5.223 | 5.593 | 6.239 | 8.167 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.912 Feb 1965 |
3.244 Feb 1965 |
3.552 Nov 1965 |
3.764 Dec 1968 |
3.961 Dec 1968 |
4.347 | 4.656 | 5.200 | 7.100 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.888 Dec 1968 |
3.089 Dec 1968 |
3.290 Dec 1968 |
3.491 Dec 1968 |
3.692 Dec 1968 |
4.000 | 4.238 | 4.589 | 5.907 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.074 Sep 1929 |
3.213 Sep 1929 |
3.353 Sep 1929 |
3.440 Dec 1968 |
3.518 Dec 1968 |
3.790 | 3.967 | 4.238 | 5.216 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.267 Sep 1929 |
3.321 Sep 1929 |
3.376 Sep 1929 |
3.431 Sep 1929 |
3.486 Sep 1929 |
3.928 | 4.084 | 4.484 | 5.314 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.349 Sep 1929 |
3.369 Sep 1929 |
3.390 Sep 1929 |
3.410 Sep 1929 |
3.431 Sep 1929 |
4.015 | 4.360 | 4.795 | 5.792 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.319 Sep 1929 |
3.340 Sep 1929 |
3.361 Sep 1929 |
3.382 Sep 1929 |
3.403 Sep 1929 |
3.860 | 4.104 | 4.577 | 5.353 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1998 |
0.457 Mar 1999 |
3.757 Mar 1999 |
6.383 Sep 2000 |
8.797 Sep 2000 |
10.137 | 10.861 | 11.368 | 14.058 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.451 Apr 2000 |
3.190 Apr 2000 |
3.929 Apr 2000 |
4.668 Apr 2000 |
5.407 Apr 2000 |
5.957 | 6.493 | 7.575 | 9.110 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
5.639 Sep 1987 |
5.946 Sep 1987 |
6.241 Jan 1977 |
6.473 Jan 1977 |
6.705 Jan 1977 |
6.961 | 7.245 | 7.478 | 8.026 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.453% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.352% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.306% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.264% |
||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.961% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.692% |
99.84
|
95% Succ. 3.762% |
99.29
|
95% Succ. 3.736% |
98.62
|
95% Succ. 3.690% |
97.65
|
95% Succ. 3.613% |
||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.93
|
95% Succ. 4.394% |
94.90
|
90% Succ. 4.171% |
88.03
|
80% Succ. 4.243% |
88.17
|
80% Succ. 4.280% |
86.87
|
80% Succ. 4.260% |
83.87
|
80% Succ. 4.131% |
||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.674% |
93.03
|
90% Succ. 4.607% |
80.63
|
80% Succ. 4.527% |
71.99
|
72.02
|
72.26
|
66.41
|
50% Succ. 4.932% |
||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
99.07
|
95% Succ. 5.290% |
80.51
|
80% Succ. 5.022% |
67.59
|
53.55
|
50% Succ. 5.127% |
52.07
|
50% Succ. 5.084% |
54.49
|
50% Succ. 5.168% |
47.70
|
|||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
91.88
|
90% Succ. 5.601% |
70.66
|
53.10
|
50% Succ. 5.643% |
40.86
|
41.48
|
44.52
|
37.74
|
||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
81.40
|
80% Succ. 6.080% |
61.89
|
44.87
|
33.44
|
32.48
|
33.56
|
27.21
|
|||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
75.20
|
52.31
|
50% Succ. 6.694% |
37.14
|
26.34
|
25.33
|
26.46
|
22.51
|
|||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
69.13
|
45.95
|
28.99
|
19.07
|
17.48
|
17.67
|
16.13
|
||||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.642% |
62.55
|
37.84
|
22.07
|
12.29
|
9.62
|
8.29
|
7.39
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
99.54
|
53.44
|
27.33
|
15.59
|
5.59
|
4.06
|
3.75
|
3.70
|
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.486% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.431% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.403% |
|||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.961% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.692% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.518% |
99.79
|
95% Succ. 3.928% |
99.72
|
99.59
|
95% Succ. 3.860% |
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.88
|
95% Succ. 4.347% |
94.87
|
90% Succ. 4.238% |
88.85
|
80% Succ. 4.238% |
93.35
|
90% Succ. 4.084% |
95.29
|
95% Succ. 4.015% |
91.70
|
90% Succ. 4.104% |
||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.674% |
92.75
|
90% Succ. 4.656% |
81.97
|
80% Succ. 4.589% |
72.38
|
79.00
|
87.81
|
80% Succ. 4.795% |
80.91
|
80% Succ. 4.577% |
|||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
98.54
|
95% Succ. 5.223% |
82.28
|
80% Succ. 5.200% |
70.60
|
55.24
|
50% Succ. 5.216% |
60.50
|
50% Succ. 5.314% |
75.07
|
64.32
|
50% Succ. 5.353% |
|||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
91.57
|
90% Succ. 5.593% |
74.20
|
58.39
|
50% Succ. 5.907% |
41.76
|
45.11
|
58.73
|
50% Succ. 5.792% |
43.98
|
|||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
83.04
|
80% Succ. 6.239% |
65.64
|
49.51
|
33.28
|
35.14
|
41.83
|
23.24
|
|||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
76.69
|
58.03
|
40.36
|
24.29
|
22.45
|
26.04
|
13.69
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
70.03
|
51.13
|
50% Succ. 7.100% |
30.24
|
11.98
|
9.77
|
11.08
|
6.64
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.642% |
61.60
|
41.14
|
19.14
|
4.99
|
4.57
|
3.60
|
2.90
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
99.44
|
52.45
|
27.59
|
12.76
|
1.50
|
1.04
|
1.11
|
1.66
|
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.407% |
100.00
|
||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
99.17
|
95% Succ. 5.957% |
100.00
|
||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
93.91
|
90% Succ. 6.493% |
100.00
|
||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
89.47
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.705% |
||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
85.60
|
93.36
|
90% Succ. 7.245% |
||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
80.61
|
80% Succ. 7.575% |
78.42
|
||
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
70.64
|
51.45
|
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025
Related Pages
For the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com