Last Update: 30 April 2023
The Warren Buffett Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and can be suitable for a retirement plan.
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Warren Buffett Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The Warren Buffett Portfolio
The Warren Buffett Portfolio contains 90% Stocks, 10% Bonds.
Weight | Asset Class | Category |
---|---|---|
90.00 % | US Large Cap | Stocks |
10.00 % | US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries | Fixed Income |
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 9.21% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.52%.
8.126% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2023: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.920 | 8.275 |
9.19 [ 6.49 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
30 Years |
1 May 1993 |
30 Apr 2023 | 6.907 | 8.126 |
9.21 [ 6.53 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 8.173 | 8.699 |
10.32 [ 7.26 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
50 Years |
1 May 1973 |
30 Apr 2023 | 4.042 | 4.285 |
10.10 [ 5.91 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
60 Years |
1 May 1963 |
30 Apr 2023 | 3.938 | 4.102 |
9.63 [ 5.51 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 7.856 | 7.953 |
10.27 [ 6.50 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1901 |
0.968 Jul 1901 |
2.053 Sep 1929 |
2.920 Sep 1929 |
3.787 Sep 1929 |
4.958 | 5.357 | 6.057 | 8.678 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.785 Jun 1902 |
2.526 Jun 1902 |
2.906 Sep 1929 |
3.071 Sep 1929 |
3.237 Sep 1929 |
4.242 | 4.618 | 5.110 | 7.094 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.687 Dec 1968 |
2.803 Sep 1929 |
2.897 Sep 1929 |
2.990 Sep 1929 |
3.084 Sep 1929 |
3.923 | 4.208 | 4.587 | 6.191 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.534 Sep 1929 |
2.640 Sep 1929 |
2.746 Sep 1929 |
2.852 Sep 1929 |
2.958 Sep 1929 |
3.714 | 3.980 | 4.313 | 5.714 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.717 Sep 1929 |
2.755 Sep 1929 |
2.793 Sep 1929 |
2.831 Sep 1929 |
2.869 Sep 1929 |
3.936 | 4.126 | 4.622 | 5.753 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.792 Sep 1929 |
2.804 Sep 1929 |
2.815 Sep 1929 |
2.827 Sep 1929 |
2.838 Sep 1929 |
3.873 | 4.073 | 4.593 | 5.830 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.319 Sep 1929 |
1.186 Sep 1929 |
2.053 Sep 1929 |
2.920 Sep 1929 |
3.787 Sep 1929 |
4.799 | 5.021 | 5.853 | 8.691 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.575 Sep 1929 |
2.741 Sep 1929 |
2.906 Sep 1929 |
3.071 Sep 1929 |
3.237 Sep 1929 |
4.019 | 4.354 | 4.962 | 7.620 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.687 Dec 1968 |
2.803 Sep 1929 |
2.897 Sep 1929 |
2.990 Sep 1929 |
3.084 Sep 1929 |
3.733 | 3.975 | 4.475 | 6.447 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.534 Sep 1929 |
2.640 Sep 1929 |
2.746 Sep 1929 |
2.852 Sep 1929 |
2.958 Sep 1929 |
3.544 | 3.727 | 4.144 | 5.840 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.717 Sep 1929 |
2.755 Sep 1929 |
2.793 Sep 1929 |
2.831 Sep 1929 |
2.869 Sep 1929 |
4.021 | 4.279 | 4.737 | 6.427 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.792 Sep 1929 |
2.804 Sep 1929 |
2.815 Sep 1929 |
2.827 Sep 1929 |
2.838 Sep 1929 |
3.829 | 4.354 | 5.263 | 7.002 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.814 Apr 2000 |
2.522 Apr 2000 |
3.230 Apr 2000 |
3.937 Apr 2000 |
4.645 Apr 2000 |
5.098 | 5.674 | 6.990 | 9.672 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.822 May 1973 |
4.060 May 1973 |
4.297 May 1973 |
4.535 May 1973 |
4.773 May 1973 |
6.273 | 6.820 | 7.550 | 8.544 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.958% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.869% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.838% |
|||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.237% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.084% |
99.92
|
99.82
|
99.80
|
||||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.787% |
99.86
|
99.63
|
95% Succ. 3.923% |
98.70
|
95% Succ. 3.714% |
99.01
|
95% Succ. 3.936% |
98.79
|
95% Succ. 3.873% |
|
4.00 % |
99.87
|
97.28
|
95% Succ. 4.242% |
93.48
|
90% Succ. 4.208% |
89.26
|
80% Succ. 4.313% |
93.96
|
90% Succ. 4.126% |
92.32
|
90% Succ. 4.073% |
|
4.50 % |
99.24
|
95% Succ. 4.958% |
91.70
|
90% Succ. 4.618% |
82.21
|
80% Succ. 4.587% |
76.89
|
82.15
|
80% Succ. 4.622% |
81.90
|
80% Succ. 4.593% |
|
5.00 % |
94.34
|
90% Succ. 5.357% |
81.82
|
80% Succ. 5.110% |
72.72
|
66.07
|
69.61
|
70.98
|
||||
5.50 % |
88.17
|
73.93
|
63.23
|
54.19
|
50% Succ. 5.714% |
56.09
|
50% Succ. 5.753% |
57.94
|
50% Succ. 5.830% |
|||
6.00 % |
80.81
|
80% Succ. 6.057% |
67.53
|
53.82
|
50% Succ. 6.191% |
43.53
|
44.82
|
47.02
|
||||
6.50 % |
74.26
|
60.72
|
44.03
|
36.62
|
38.59
|
39.74
|
||||||
7.00 % |
70.30
|
51.67
|
50% Succ. 7.094% |
37.88
|
31.16
|
32.91
|
34.48
|
|||||
7.50 % |
64.63
|
44.66
|
32.47
|
26.61
|
27.77
|
28.01
|
||||||
8.00 % |
59.22
|
38.80
|
27.35
|
20.10
|
16.95
|
16.28
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.958% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.869% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.838% |
|||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.237% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.084% |
99.83
|
99.58
|
99.45
|
||||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.787% |
99.76
|
99.31
|
95% Succ. 3.733% |
97.34
|
95% Succ. 3.544% |
97.71
|
96.68
|
95% Succ. 3.829% |
||
4.00 % |
99.79
|
95.24
|
95% Succ. 4.019% |
89.60
|
80% Succ. 4.475% |
84.03
|
80% Succ. 4.144% |
95.43
|
95% Succ. 4.021% |
93.91
|
90% Succ. 4.354% |
|
4.50 % |
98.75
|
95% Succ. 4.799% |
87.87
|
80% Succ. 4.962% |
79.33
|
72.05
|
85.24
|
80% Succ. 4.737% |
87.53
|
|||
5.00 % |
90.63
|
90% Succ. 5.021% |
79.67
|
71.29
|
61.73
|
73.80
|
82.27
|
80% Succ. 5.263% |
||||
5.50 % |
83.25
|
80% Succ. 5.853% |
73.72
|
62.69
|
53.91
|
50% Succ. 5.840% |
65.28
|
77.01
|
||||
6.00 % |
78.56
|
68.13
|
58.11
|
50% Succ. 6.447% |
47.09
|
55.51
|
50% Succ. 6.427% |
67.87
|
||||
6.50 % |
73.36
|
63.50
|
49.51
|
40.77
|
49.27
|
59.28
|
||||||
7.00 % |
69.41
|
57.19
|
43.41
|
35.44
|
42.00
|
50.14
|
50% Succ. 7.002% |
|||||
7.50 % |
63.16
|
51.25
|
50% Succ. 7.620% |
37.86
|
28.95
|
34.10
|
39.89
|
|||||
8.00 % |
58.58
|
45.07
|
30.79
|
22.63
|
24.12
|
27.98
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.645% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.773% |
5.00 % |
96.12
|
95% Succ. 5.098% |
97.51
|
|
5.50 % |
91.41
|
90% Succ. 5.674% |
97.10
|
|
6.00 % |
87.26
|
95.02
|
95% Succ. 6.273% |
|
6.50 % |
82.83
|
80% Succ. 6.990% |
94.19
|
90% Succ. 6.820% |
7.00 % |
79.78
|
87.55
|
||
7.50 % |
75.90
|
80.50
|
80% Succ. 7.550% |
|
8.00 % |
71.19
|
69.71
|
Related Pages
For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com