Warren Buffett Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 30 April 2024

The Warren Buffett Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and is allocated for 90% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - Apr 2024, the portfolio granted a 8.76% annualized return, with a -79.59% maximum drawdown.

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.237% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 97.3% of cases, and for 50 years in the 89.36% of cases .

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Warren Buffett Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The Warren Buffett Portfolio

The Warren Buffett Portfolio contains 90% Stocks, 10% Bonds.

Weight Asset Class Category
90.00 % US Large Cap Stocks
10.00 % US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Fixed Income

Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2024), the portfolio has returned 9.72% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.52%.

8.51% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Apr 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 May 2014
30 Apr 2024 7.940 14.606 11.23
[ 8.16 ]
-22.06
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
20 Years 1 May 2004
30 Apr 2024 5.325 7.474 9.19
[ 6.43 ]
-46.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
30 Years 1 May 1994
30 Apr 2024 7.389 8.510 9.72
[ 6.99 ]
-46.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
40 Years 1 May 1984
30 Apr 2024 9.230 9.721 10.79
[ 7.75 ]
-46.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
50 Years 1 May 1974
30 Apr 2024 5.418 5.637 10.79
[ 6.71 ]
-46.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
60 Years 1 May 1964
30 Apr 2024 3.582 3.728 9.70
[ 5.54 ]
-46.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
70 Years 1 May 1954
30 Apr 2024 7.127 7.217 10.27
[ 6.46 ]
-46.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
80 Years 1 May 1944
30 Apr 2024 7.661 7.701 10.73
[ 6.81 ]
-46.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2024

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2024)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?

Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1924 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1974 - Apr 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jun 1908
0.000
Jun 1910
1.554
Mar 1999
4.501
Sep 1929
6.411
Sep 1929
8.417 9.067 10.407 13.682
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
May 1901
0.968
Jul 1901
2.053
Sep 1929
2.920
Sep 1929
3.787
Sep 1929
4.963 5.370 6.060 8.664
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.785
Jun 1902
2.526
Jun 1902
2.906
Sep 1929
3.071
Sep 1929
3.237
Sep 1929
4.248 4.630 5.134 7.131
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.687
Dec 1968
2.803
Sep 1929
2.897
Sep 1929
2.990
Sep 1929
3.084
Sep 1929
3.923 4.211 4.599 6.209
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.534
Sep 1929
2.640
Sep 1929
2.746
Sep 1929
2.852
Sep 1929
2.958
Sep 1929
3.720 3.984 4.318 5.688
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.717
Sep 1929
2.755
Sep 1929
2.793
Sep 1929
2.831
Sep 1929
2.869
Sep 1929
3.910 4.105 4.585 5.744
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.792
Sep 1929
2.804
Sep 1929
2.815
Sep 1929
2.827
Sep 1929
2.838
Sep 1929
3.873 4.075 4.608 5.844
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.763
Sep 1929
2.778
Sep 1929
2.793
Sep 1929
2.808
Sep 1929
2.823
Sep 1929
3.803 4.008 4.464 5.590
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Apr 1928
0.000
Oct 1964
1.554
Mar 1999
4.501
Sep 1929
6.411
Sep 1929
8.203 8.966 10.241 13.624
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.319
Sep 1929
1.186
Sep 1929
2.053
Sep 1929
2.920
Sep 1929
3.787
Sep 1929
4.799 5.021 5.853 8.588
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.575
Sep 1929
2.741
Sep 1929
2.906
Sep 1929
3.071
Sep 1929
3.237
Sep 1929
4.019 4.354 4.962 7.620
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.687
Dec 1968
2.803
Sep 1929
2.897
Sep 1929
2.990
Sep 1929
3.084
Sep 1929
3.733 3.975 4.475 6.447
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.534
Sep 1929
2.640
Sep 1929
2.746
Sep 1929
2.852
Sep 1929
2.958
Sep 1929
3.544 3.727 4.144 5.654
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.717
Sep 1929
2.755
Sep 1929
2.793
Sep 1929
2.831
Sep 1929
2.869
Sep 1929
3.910 4.158 4.655 6.223
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.792
Sep 1929
2.804
Sep 1929
2.815
Sep 1929
2.827
Sep 1929
2.838
Sep 1929
3.829 4.354 5.263 7.002
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.763
Sep 1929
2.778
Sep 1929
2.793
Sep 1929
2.808
Sep 1929
2.823
Sep 1929
3.538 4.018 4.618 6.145
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Nov 1998
0.000
Jan 1999
1.554
Mar 1999
4.900
Sep 2000
7.584
Sep 2000
9.020 10.107 10.798 14.580
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.814
Apr 2000
2.522
Apr 2000
3.230
Apr 2000
3.937
Apr 2000
4.645
Apr 2000
5.098 5.853 7.404 9.672
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
5.425
May 1974
5.637
May 1974
5.849
May 1974
6.061
May 1974
6.273
May 1974
6.820 7.257 7.822 8.544
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1924 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1974 - Apr 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.958%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.869%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.838%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.823%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.237%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.084%
99.92
99.82
99.80
99.77
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.787%
99.86
99.63
95% Succ.
3.923%
98.71
95% Succ.
3.720%
99.02
95% Succ.
3.910%
98.80
95% Succ.
3.873%
98.64
95% Succ.
3.803%
4.00 %
100.00
99.88
97.30
95% Succ.
4.248%
93.53
90% Succ.
4.211%
89.36
80% Succ.
4.318%
93.40
90% Succ.
4.105%
92.41
90% Succ.
4.075%
90.35
90% Succ.
4.008%
4.50 %
100.00
99.25
95% Succ.
4.963%
91.76
90% Succ.
4.630%
82.37
80% Succ.
4.599%
76.71
81.27
80% Succ.
4.585%
82.12
80% Succ.
4.608%
79.34
5.00 %
100.00
94.38
90% Succ.
5.370%
81.97
80% Succ.
5.134%
72.96
65.75
68.87
71.33
66.74
5.50 %
100.00
88.26
74.14
63.56
53.75
50% Succ.
5.688%
55.49
50% Succ.
5.744%
58.44
50% Succ.
5.844%
51.99
50% Succ.
5.590%
6.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
6.411%
80.95
80% Succ.
6.060%
67.79
54.22
50% Succ.
6.209%
43.11
44.34
47.65
40.64
6.50 %
99.94
74.45
61.04
44.53
36.26
38.18
40.46
32.80
7.00 %
99.83
70.52
52.06
50% Succ.
7.131%
38.43
30.86
32.56
35.26
27.92
7.50 %
99.48
64.52
45.10
33.06
26.35
27.48
28.67
21.34
8.00 %
97.91
58.78
39.03
27.99
19.90
16.77
16.88
10.90
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.958%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.869%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.838%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.823%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.237%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.084%
99.83
99.58
99.45
99.17
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.787%
99.76
99.31
95% Succ.
3.733%
97.34
95% Succ.
3.544%
97.71
95% Succ.
3.910%
96.68
95% Succ.
3.829%
95.02
95% Succ.
3.538%
4.00 %
100.00
99.79
95.24
95% Succ.
4.019%
89.60
80% Succ.
4.475%
84.03
80% Succ.
4.144%
93.97
90% Succ.
4.158%
93.91
90% Succ.
4.354%
90.46
90% Succ.
4.018%
4.50 %
100.00
98.75
95% Succ.
4.799%
87.87
80% Succ.
4.962%
79.33
71.21
82.74
80% Succ.
4.655%
87.53
81.33
80% Succ.
4.618%
5.00 %
100.00
90.63
90% Succ.
5.021%
79.67
71.29
60.40
71.31
82.27
80% Succ.
5.263%
73.44
5.50 %
100.00
83.25
80% Succ.
5.853%
73.72
62.69
52.08
50% Succ.
5.654%
62.79
77.01
64.32
6.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
6.411%
78.56
68.13
58.11
50% Succ.
6.447%
45.09
53.01
50% Succ.
6.223%
67.87
53.53
50% Succ.
6.145%
6.50 %
99.91
73.36
63.50
49.51
38.77
46.78
59.28
41.91
7.00 %
99.72
69.41
57.19
43.41
33.44
39.50
50.14
50% Succ.
7.002%
30.71
7.50 %
99.17
62.54
51.25
50% Succ.
7.620%
37.86
26.96
31.60
39.34
20.75
8.00 %
96.67
57.34
44.59
30.79
20.63
21.83
27.15
12.03
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.645%
100.00
5.00 %
100.00
96.12
95% Succ.
5.098%
100.00
5.50 %
100.00
92.80
90% Succ.
5.853%
100.00
6.00 %
100.00
89.20
100.00
100% Succ.
6.273%
6.50 %
100.00
85.87
99.17
95% Succ.
6.820%
7.00 %
100.00
83.10
80% Succ.
7.404%
92.53
90% Succ.
7.257%
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.584%
77.56
85.48
80% Succ.
7.822%
8.00 %
98.54
71.19
73.03
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2024

Related Pages

For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com