10-year Treasury Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 31 March 2024

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio invests in 1 asset class and is allocated for 0% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - Mar 2024, the portfolio granted a 4.52% annualized return, with a -23.18% maximum drawdown.

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.375% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 48.92% of cases, and for 50 years in the 14.44% of cases .

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio contains 100% Bonds.

Weight Asset Class Category
100.00 % US Treasuries (7-10y) Fixed Income

Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 4.85% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -23.18%.

5.878% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at March 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Apr 2014
31 Mar 2024 0.000 10.445 1.16
[ -1.62 ]
-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
20 Years 1 Apr 2004
31 Mar 2024 0.514 6.078 3.04
[ 0.44 ]
-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
30 Years 1 Apr 1994
31 Mar 2024 2.866 5.878 4.85
[ 2.25 ]
-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
40 Years 1 Apr 1984
31 Mar 2024 5.772 7.429 6.75
[ 3.82 ]
-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
50 Years 1 Apr 1974
31 Mar 2024 2.826 3.762 6.75
[ 2.82 ]
-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
60 Years 1 Apr 1964
31 Mar 2024 1.928 2.615 6.27
[ 2.25 ]
-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
70 Years 1 Apr 1954
31 Mar 2024 1.625 2.159 5.65
[ 2.01 ]
-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
80 Years 1 Apr 1944
31 Mar 2024 0.956 1.404 5.17
[ 1.44 ]
-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1974 - Mar 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jun 1897
0.000
May 1908
0.853
Oct 1971
4.621
Oct 1971
7.493
Sep 1915
8.069 8.560 9.455 11.206
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Feb 1897
0.000
Feb 1898
0.289
Jul 1900
2.260
Feb 1941
3.585
May 1941
4.023 4.271 4.557 5.985
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jun 1889
0.000
Apr 1939
0.606
May 1940
1.523
Nov 1940
2.375
Feb 1941
2.692 2.951 3.167 3.919
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jan 1933
0.000
May 1938
0.000
Apr 1940
0.748
Sep 1941
1.737
May 1941
1.928 2.203 2.562 3.125
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Feb 1930
0.000
May 1931
0.507
Oct 1931
1.094
Feb 1941
1.405
Feb 1941
1.614 1.680 2.178 2.725
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.386
Aug 1897
0.767
Aug 1897
0.963
Dec 1940
1.125
Feb 1941
1.286
Feb 1941
1.459 1.519 1.882 2.309
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Mar 1911
0.293
Oct 1911
0.768
May 1911
1.119
Feb 1941
1.222
Feb 1941
1.368 1.425 1.658 2.003
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jan 1901
0.179
Oct 1901
0.606
Oct 1901
1.019
May 1901
1.180
Feb 1941
1.297 1.366 1.477 1.891
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Aug 1936
0.000
Aug 1938
0.853
Oct 1971
4.621
Oct 1971
7.643
Feb 1946
8.227 8.646 9.381 10.880
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Apr 1932
0.000
Dec 1936
0.842
Aug 1939
2.260
Feb 1941
3.585
May 1941
3.909 4.211 4.577 5.481
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jul 1932
0.000
Apr 1939
0.606
May 1940
1.523
Nov 1940
2.375
Feb 1941
2.590 2.708 3.119 3.628
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jan 1933
0.000
May 1938
0.000
Apr 1940
0.748
Sep 1941
1.737
May 1941
1.859 1.931 2.212 2.970
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Feb 1930
0.000
May 1931
0.507
Oct 1931
1.094
Feb 1941
1.405
Feb 1941
1.499 1.610 1.677 2.508
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.596
Dec 1934
0.795
Aug 1939
0.963
Dec 1940
1.125
Feb 1941
1.286
Feb 1941
1.350 1.441 1.506 2.090
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.809
Apr 1941
0.914
Feb 1941
1.016
Feb 1941
1.119
Feb 1941
1.222
Feb 1941
1.268 1.323 1.402 1.733
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.858
May 1941
0.940
May 1941
1.022
May 1941
1.103
Feb 1941
1.180
Feb 1941
1.209 1.232 1.318 1.402
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Apr 1974
0.575
Nov 2013
3.630
Jun 1974
6.206
Jun 1974
8.494
Jan 1977
9.039 9.598 10.812 12.280
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.494
Nov 2003
1.905
Apr 2004
3.296
Apr 2004
4.687
Apr 2004
5.452
Apr 1974
5.940 6.059 6.650 7.643
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.194
Nov 1993
2.980
Nov 1993
3.765
Nov 1993
4.215
Apr 1974
4.522
Apr 1974
4.888 4.993 5.334 6.451
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1974 - Mar 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.375%
93.16
90% Succ.
2.203%
85.40
80% Succ.
2.178%
70.36
50% Succ.
2.309%
50.20
50% Succ.
2.003%
48.41
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
98.72
95% Succ.
2.692%
81.76
80% Succ.
2.562%
57.90
50% Succ.
2.725%
42.68
27.80
24.43
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
87.84
80% Succ.
3.167%
55.22
50% Succ.
3.125%
35.32
19.64
18.80
18.98
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.585%
62.23
50% Succ.
3.919%
39.19
19.84
15.80
15.30
11.02
4.00 %
100.00
95.75
95% Succ.
4.023%
48.92
28.75
14.44
10.98
8.80
7.27
4.50 %
100.00
83.00
80% Succ.
4.557%
43.38
21.32
8.87
6.52
5.50
4.55
5.00 %
100.00
65.31
35.41
17.72
5.73
3.84
3.20
1.59
5.50 %
100.00
54.38
50% Succ.
5.985%
29.66
12.21
3.55
1.70
0.30
0.00
6.00 %
100.00
49.81
23.24
9.78
1.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
100.00
45.69
18.99
6.99
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.493%
40.38
11.96
4.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
99.94
31.69
8.45
1.76
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
95.76
24.69
5.27
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.375%
87.10
80% Succ.
2.212%
69.88
54.68
50% Succ.
2.090%
32.69
28.22
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
97.74
95% Succ.
2.590%
70.04
50% Succ.
2.970%
50.08
50% Succ.
2.508%
25.16
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
83.47
80% Succ.
3.119%
46.74
18.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.585%
54.58
50% Succ.
3.628%
32.18
2.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
100.00
93.03
90% Succ.
4.211%
42.45
20.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
100.00
84.18
80% Succ.
4.577%
37.57
13.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
100.00
65.56
50% Succ.
5.481%
30.44
9.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
100.00
49.74
24.02
8.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
100.00
44.64
17.84
7.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
100.00
39.75
13.79
6.93
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
100.00
36.63
8.80
5.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.643%
27.99
7.13
3.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
97.78
18.21
5.47
2.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.522%
5.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
5.452%
89.21
80% Succ.
5.334%
5.50 %
100.00
99.72
95% Succ.
5.940%
76.35
6.00 %
100.00
91.97
90% Succ.
6.059%
62.24
50% Succ.
6.451%
6.50 %
100.00
81.99
80% Succ.
6.650%
48.13
7.00 %
100.00
75.35
30.71
7.50 %
100.00
54.85
50% Succ.
7.643%
24.90
8.00 %
100.00
38.78
19.09
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Related Pages

For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

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