Last Update: 30 April 2023
The 10-year Treasury Portfolio invests in 1 asset class and can be suitable for a retirement plan.
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The 10-year Treasury Portfolio
The 10-year Treasury Portfolio contains 100% Bonds.
Weight | Asset Class | Category |
---|---|---|
100.00 % | US Treasuries (7-10y) | Fixed Income |
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 4.93% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.22%.
5.616% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2023: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.160 | 6.373 |
3.57 [ 1.01 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
30 Years |
1 May 1993 |
30 Apr 2023 | 2.825 | 5.616 |
4.93 [ 2.36 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.115 | 6.611 |
6.74 [ 3.78 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
50 Years |
1 May 1973 |
30 Apr 2023 | 2.533 | 3.402 |
6.83 [ 2.77 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
60 Years |
1 May 1963 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.932 | 2.573 |
6.34 [ 2.34 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.757 | 2.260 |
5.79 [ 2.17 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1897 |
0.000 Feb 1898 |
0.289 Jul 1900 |
2.260 Feb 1941 |
3.585 May 1941 |
4.021 | 4.269 | 4.555 | 5.970 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1889 |
0.000 Apr 1939 |
0.606 May 1940 |
1.523 Nov 1940 |
2.375 Feb 1941 |
2.691 | 2.950 | 3.164 | 3.889 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1933 |
0.000 May 1938 |
0.000 Apr 1940 |
0.748 Sep 1941 |
1.737 May 1941 |
1.926 | 2.198 | 2.560 | 3.106 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1930 |
0.000 May 1931 |
0.507 Oct 1931 |
1.094 Feb 1941 |
1.405 Feb 1941 |
1.612 | 1.678 | 2.178 | 2.720 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.386 Aug 1897 |
0.767 Aug 1897 |
0.963 Dec 1940 |
1.125 Feb 1941 |
1.286 Feb 1941 |
1.458 | 1.518 | 1.879 | 2.303 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Mar 1911 |
0.293 Oct 1911 |
0.768 May 1911 |
1.119 Feb 1941 |
1.222 Feb 1941 |
1.368 | 1.425 | 1.657 | 1.989 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Dec 1936 |
0.842 Aug 1939 |
2.260 Feb 1941 |
3.585 May 1941 |
3.909 | 4.211 | 4.577 | 5.481 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1932 |
0.000 Apr 1939 |
0.606 May 1940 |
1.523 Nov 1940 |
2.375 Feb 1941 |
2.590 | 2.708 | 3.119 | 3.628 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1933 |
0.000 May 1938 |
0.000 Apr 1940 |
0.748 Sep 1941 |
1.737 May 1941 |
1.859 | 1.931 | 2.212 | 2.970 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1930 |
0.000 May 1931 |
0.507 Oct 1931 |
1.094 Feb 1941 |
1.405 Feb 1941 |
1.499 | 1.610 | 1.677 | 2.508 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.596 Dec 1934 |
0.795 Aug 1939 |
0.963 Dec 1940 |
1.125 Feb 1941 |
1.286 Feb 1941 |
1.350 | 1.441 | 1.506 | 2.090 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.809 Apr 1941 |
0.914 Feb 1941 |
1.016 Feb 1941 |
1.119 Feb 1941 |
1.222 Feb 1941 |
1.268 | 1.323 | 1.402 | 1.733 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.927 Oct 2002 |
2.266 Oct 2002 |
3.606 Oct 2002 |
4.295 May 1973 |
4.929 May 1973 |
5.756 | 5.979 | 6.650 | 7.643 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.728 Mar 1993 |
3.122 May 1973 |
3.440 May 1973 |
3.758 May 1973 |
4.076 May 1973 |
4.620 | 4.913 | 5.079 | 6.451 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.375% |
93.11
|
90% Succ. 2.198% |
85.27
|
80% Succ. 2.178% |
70.06
|
50% Succ. 2.303% |
49.65
|
||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
98.71
|
95% Succ. 2.691% |
81.62
|
80% Succ. 2.560% |
57.53
|
50% Succ. 2.720% |
42.11
|
28.11
|
|||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
87.75
|
80% Succ. 3.164% |
54.86
|
50% Succ. 3.106% |
34.74
|
19.84
|
19.01
|
||||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.585% |
61.95
|
50% Succ. 3.889% |
38.70
|
19.45
|
15.96
|
15.47
|
||||
4.00 % |
95.72
|
95% Succ. 4.021% |
48.54
|
28.17
|
14.56
|
11.09
|
8.90
|
|||||
4.50 % |
82.88
|
80% Succ. 4.555% |
42.95
|
20.68
|
8.95
|
6.58
|
5.56
|
|||||
5.00 % |
65.07
|
34.92
|
17.05
|
5.78
|
3.88
|
3.24
|
||||||
5.50 % |
54.06
|
50% Succ. 5.970% |
29.61
|
11.49
|
3.58
|
1.71
|
0.30
|
|||||
6.00 % |
49.47
|
23.42
|
9.04
|
1.87
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
6.50 % |
45.88
|
19.13
|
6.23
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.00 % |
40.65
|
12.05
|
3.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.50 % |
31.91
|
8.51
|
1.78
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
8.00 % |
24.86
|
5.31
|
1.26
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.375% |
87.10
|
80% Succ. 2.212% |
69.88
|
54.68
|
50% Succ. 2.090% |
32.69
|
|||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
97.74
|
95% Succ. 2.590% |
70.04
|
50% Succ. 2.970% |
50.08
|
50% Succ. 2.508% |
25.16
|
3.05
|
|||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
83.47
|
80% Succ. 3.119% |
46.74
|
18.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.585% |
54.58
|
50% Succ. 3.628% |
32.18
|
3.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||
4.00 % |
93.03
|
90% Succ. 4.211% |
42.45
|
20.39
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
4.50 % |
84.18
|
80% Succ. 4.577% |
37.57
|
11.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
5.00 % |
65.56
|
50% Succ. 5.481% |
30.44
|
8.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
5.50 % |
49.74
|
24.85
|
6.66
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
6.00 % |
44.64
|
17.84
|
5.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
6.50 % |
40.69
|
13.79
|
5.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.00 % |
37.77
|
8.80
|
3.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.50 % |
29.14
|
7.13
|
3.19
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
8.00 % |
19.35
|
5.47
|
2.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.076% |
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.929% |
95.44
|
95% Succ. 4.620% |
5.00 % |
99.72
|
84.65
|
80% Succ. 5.079% |
|
5.50 % |
96.68
|
95% Succ. 5.756% |
74.69
|
|
6.00 % |
88.92
|
62.24
|
50% Succ. 6.451% |
|
6.50 % |
81.44
|
80% Succ. 6.650% |
48.13
|
|
7.00 % |
75.35
|
30.71
|
||
7.50 % |
54.85
|
50% Succ. 7.643% |
24.90
|
|
8.00 % |
38.78
|
19.09
|
Related Pages
For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com