Last Update: 30 April 2023
The Gold Portfolio invests in 1 asset class and can be suitable for a retirement plan.
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Gold Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The Gold Portfolio
The Gold Portfolio contains 100% Commodities.
Weight | Asset Class | Category |
---|---|---|
100.00 % | Gold | Commodities |
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.64% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -42.91%.
4.104% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2023: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 7.910 | 11.339 |
8.86 [ 6.16 ] |
-42.91 Sep 2011 - Dec 2015 |
30 Years |
1 May 1993 |
30 Apr 2023 | 2.437 | 4.104 |
5.64 [ 3.05 ] |
-42.91 Sep 2011 - Dec 2015 |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 0.495 | 1.760 |
3.70 [ 0.83 ] |
-48.26 Dec 1987 - Aug 1999 |
50 Years |
1 May 1973 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.959 | 2.984 |
6.20 [ 2.16 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
60 Years |
1 May 1963 |
30 Apr 2023 | 2.777 | 3.431 |
6.81 [ 2.80 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.764 | 2.262 |
5.80 [ 2.19 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1884 |
0.000 May 1890 |
0.000 Jun 1897 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
3.107 | 3.254 | 3.455 | 4.939 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.000 May 1886 |
0.000 Feb 1889 |
0.539 Jul 1897 |
1.062 Feb 1980 |
1.900 | 2.033 | 2.132 | 3.146 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1875 |
0.000 Sep 1877 |
0.000 Jan 1879 |
0.579 Feb 1980 |
0.912 Feb 1980 |
1.421 | 1.497 | 1.688 | 2.377 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.630 Sep 1896 |
1.107 Jul 1897 |
1.238 | 1.327 | 1.377 | 1.803 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 May 1892 |
0.306 Jul 1897 |
0.887 Jul 1897 |
0.992 | 1.058 | 1.137 | 1.409 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1875 |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.000 Oct 1885 |
0.162 Jul 1897 |
0.710 Jul 1897 |
0.781 | 0.851 | 0.942 | 1.149 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Feb 1934 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
2.924 | 3.247 | 3.494 | 5.014 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1929 |
0.000 Nov 1932 |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.602 Aug 1940 |
1.062 Feb 1980 |
1.898 | 2.034 | 2.140 | 3.384 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1923 |
0.000 Jul 1930 |
0.247 Feb 1980 |
0.579 Feb 1980 |
0.912 Feb 1980 |
1.464 | 1.498 | 1.766 | 2.951 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1947 |
0.339 Sep 1949 |
0.699 Mar 1935 |
1.009 Mar 1935 |
1.277 Feb 1934 |
1.331 | 1.370 | 1.635 | 2.544 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Jan 1938 |
0.175 Apr 1941 |
0.683 Apr 1941 |
1.149 Apr 1934 |
1.183 | 1.200 | 1.242 | 2.074 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Mar 1933 |
0.302 Apr 1933 |
0.661 Apr 1933 |
0.992 May 1934 |
1.020 | 1.037 | 1.067 | 1.567 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1973 |
0.000 Apr 1974 |
0.000 Nov 1978 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
2.472 | 2.835 | 3.218 | 4.916 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1973 |
0.000 Jul 1973 |
0.146 Feb 1980 |
0.604 Feb 1980 |
1.062 Feb 1980 |
1.439 | 1.913 | 2.274 | 2.845 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
99.43
|
91.29
|
90% Succ. 2.033% |
57.75
|
50% Succ. 2.377% |
43.37
|
26.96
|
13.75
|
||||
2.50 % |
98.80
|
66.71
|
46.40
|
27.10
|
9.29
|
0.00
|
||||||
3.00 % |
96.22
|
95% Succ. 3.107% |
52.96
|
50% Succ. 3.146% |
34.47
|
15.05
|
3.43
|
0.00
|
||||
3.50 % |
78.16
|
43.02
|
16.38
|
10.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
4.00 % |
61.42
|
32.95
|
10.82
|
7.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
4.50 % |
55.88
|
50% Succ. 4.939% |
23.42
|
6.82
|
4.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
5.00 % |
48.65
|
10.76
|
3.85
|
2.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
5.50 % |
39.02
|
8.58
|
2.30
|
2.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
6.00 % |
32.72
|
6.33
|
1.93
|
0.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
6.50 % |
26.12
|
5.04
|
1.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.00 % |
19.89
|
3.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.50 % |
16.30
|
2.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
8.00 % |
12.21
|
1.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
99.06
|
90.73
|
90% Succ. 2.034% |
71.29
|
69.22
|
52.18
|
50% Succ. 2.074% |
29.92
|
||||
2.50 % |
98.02
|
95% Succ. 2.924% |
69.44
|
59.08
|
50% Succ. 2.951% |
51.75
|
50% Succ. 2.544% |
20.79
|
0.00
|
|||
3.00 % |
94.28
|
90% Succ. 3.247% |
57.67
|
50% Succ. 3.384% |
49.65
|
30.78
|
7.90
|
0.00
|
||||
3.50 % |
79.71
|
49.23
|
28.29
|
22.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
4.00 % |
63.27
|
39.83
|
20.25
|
15.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
4.50 % |
57.54
|
32.58
|
12.76
|
8.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
5.00 % |
50.47
|
50% Succ. 5.014% |
17.24
|
7.21
|
5.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
5.50 % |
43.18
|
14.74
|
4.30
|
4.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
6.00 % |
39.13
|
11.06
|
3.61
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
6.50 % |
36.32
|
8.80
|
2.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.00 % |
31.63
|
5.95
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.50 % |
26.74
|
3.57
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
8.00 % |
20.19
|
3.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
97.51
|
95% Succ. 2.472% |
87.55
|
80% Succ. 2.274% |
2.50 % |
94.74
|
90% Succ. 2.835% |
67.22
|
50% Succ. 2.845% |
3.00 % |
84.76
|
80% Succ. 3.218% |
41.91
|
|
3.50 % |
75.90
|
22.41
|
||
4.00 % |
63.71
|
7.88
|
||
4.50 % |
56.79
|
50% Succ. 4.916% |
0.41
|
|
5.00 % |
47.65
|
0.00
|
||
5.50 % |
34.35
|
0.00
|
||
6.00 % |
30.75
|
0.00
|
||
6.50 % |
26.59
|
0.00
|
||
7.00 % |
21.88
|
0.00
|
||
7.50 % |
19.39
|
0.00
|
||
8.00 % |
16.90
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com