Gold Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 28 February 2023

The Gold Portfolio invests in 1 asset class and can be suitable for a retirement plan.

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Gold Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

Key Points

The Gold Portfolio is allocated for 0% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - Feb 2023, the portfolio granted a 2.87% annualized return, with a -61.78% maximum drawdown.

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.062% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 32.86% of cases, and for 50 years in the 7.42% of cases

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The Gold Portfolio

The Gold Portfolio contains 100% Commodities.

Weight Asset Class Category
100.00 % Gold Commodities

Over the last 30 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.62% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -42.91%.

4.401% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at February 2023: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 7.230 10.893 8.23
[ 5.60 ] 		-42.91
Sep 2011 - Dec 2015
30 Years 1 Mar 1993
 28 Feb 2023 2.616 4.401 5.62
[ 3.05 ] 		-42.91
Sep 2011 - Dec 2015
40 Years 1 Mar 1983
 28 Feb 2023 0.475 1.823 3.61
[ 0.76 ] 		-48.26
Dec 1987 - Aug 1999
50 Years 1 Mar 1973
 28 Feb 2023 2.032 3.131 6.16
[ 2.12 ] 		-61.78
Oct 1980 - Aug 1999
60 Years 1 Mar 1963
 28 Feb 2023 2.714 3.415 6.66
[ 2.67 ] 		-61.78
Oct 1980 - Aug 1999
70 Years 1 Mar 1953
 28 Feb 2023 1.714 2.247 5.67
[ 2.08 ] 		-61.78
Oct 1980 - Aug 1999
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?

▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Dec 1884 		0.000
May 1890 		0.000
Jun 1897 		0.000
Feb 1980 		1.726
Feb 1980 		3.107 3.254 3.455 4.938
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jun 1878 		0.000
May 1886 		0.000
Feb 1889 		0.539
Jul 1897 		1.062
Feb 1980 		1.900 2.033 2.132 3.145
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jun 1875 		0.000
Sep 1877 		0.000
Jan 1879 		0.579
Feb 1980 		0.912
Feb 1980 		1.421 1.497 1.688 2.381
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
Jun 1878 		0.630
Sep 1896 		1.107
Jul 1897 		1.238 1.327 1.377 1.799
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
May 1892 		0.306
Jul 1897 		0.887
Jul 1897 		0.992 1.058 1.137 1.408
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jul 1875 		0.000
Jun 1878 		0.000
Oct 1885 		0.162
Jul 1897 		0.710
Jul 1897 		0.781 0.851 0.942 1.149
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Apr 1932 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Feb 1934 		0.000
Feb 1980 		1.726
Feb 1980 		2.924 3.247 3.494 5.014
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1929 		0.000
Nov 1932 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.602
Aug 1940 		1.062
Feb 1980 		1.898 2.034 2.140 3.384
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Mar 1923 		0.000
Jul 1930 		0.247
Feb 1980 		0.579
Feb 1980 		0.912
Feb 1980 		1.464 1.498 1.778 2.966
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Dec 1947 		0.339
Sep 1949 		0.699
Mar 1935 		1.009
Mar 1935 		1.277
Feb 1934 		1.331 1.370 1.635 2.541
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Jan 1938 		0.175
Apr 1941 		0.683
Apr 1941 		1.149
Apr 1934 		1.183 1.200 1.242 2.074
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Mar 1933 		0.302
Apr 1933 		0.661
Apr 1933 		0.992
May 1934 		1.020 1.037 1.067 1.567
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jul 1973 		0.000
Apr 1974 		0.000
Nov 1978 		0.000
Feb 1980 		1.726
Feb 1980 		2.472 2.835 3.218 4.916
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Mar 1973 		0.000
Jul 1973 		0.146
Feb 1980 		0.604
Feb 1980 		1.062
Feb 1980 		1.439 1.913 2.274 2.845
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
99.43
91.27
90% Succ.
2.033%
57.83
50% Succ.
2.381%
43.28
26.83
13.58
2.50 %
98.80
66.67
46.47
26.98
9.12
0.00
3.00 %
96.22
95% Succ.
3.107%
52.90
50% Succ.
3.145%
34.52
15.08
3.25
0.00
3.50 %
78.13
42.94
16.41
10.84
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
61.37
32.86
10.84
7.42
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
55.83
50% Succ.
4.938%
23.45
6.83
4.24
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
48.58
10.77
3.86
2.53
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
38.94
8.59
2.30
2.12
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
32.64
6.34
1.93
0.41
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
26.02
5.04
1.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
19.79
3.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
16.19
2.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
12.10
1.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
99.06
90.73
90% Succ.
2.034%
71.57
69.22
52.18
50% Succ.
2.074%
29.36
2.50 %
98.02
95% Succ.
2.924%
69.44
59.36
50% Succ.
2.966%
51.41
50% Succ.
2.541%
20.37
0.00
3.00 %
94.28
90% Succ.
3.247%
57.67
50% Succ.
3.384%
49.93
30.78
7.48
0.00
3.50 %
79.71
49.23
28.29
22.13
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
63.27
39.83
20.25
15.14
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
57.54
32.82
12.76
8.65
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
50.47
50% Succ.
5.014%
17.24
7.21
5.16
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
43.18
14.74
4.30
4.33
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
39.13
11.06
3.61
0.83
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
36.32
8.80
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
31.43
5.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
26.53
3.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
19.98
3.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
97.51
95% Succ.
2.472%
87.55
80% Succ.
2.274%
2.50 %
94.74
90% Succ.
2.835%
67.22
50% Succ.
2.845%
3.00 %
84.76
80% Succ.
3.218%
41.91
3.50 %
75.90
22.41
4.00 %
63.71
7.88
4.50 %
56.79
50% Succ.
4.916%
0.41
5.00 %
47.65
0.00
5.50 %
34.35
0.00
6.00 %
30.75
0.00
6.50 %
26.59
0.00
7.00 %
21.88
0.00
7.50 %
19.39
0.00
8.00 %
16.62
0.00
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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