Desert Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 31 May 2024

The Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio invests in 3 asset classes and is allocated for 30% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - May 2024, the portfolio granted a 6.09% annualized return, with a -34.39% maximum drawdown.

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.565% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 90.76% of cases, and for 50 years in the 41.79% of cases .

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio

The Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio contains 30% Stocks, 60% Bonds, 10% Commodities.

Weight Asset Class Category
30.00 % Total US Stock Market Stocks
60.00 % US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries Fixed Income
10.00 % Gold Commodities

Over the last 30 years (last update: May 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.66% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -14.7%.

6.492% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at May 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at May 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Jun 2014
31 May 2024 2.181 11.500 5.00
[ 2.12 ]
-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
20 Years 1 Jun 2004
31 May 2024 3.486 7.292 5.96
[ 3.30 ]
-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
30 Years 1 Jun 1994
31 May 2024 4.494 6.492 6.66
[ 4.01 ]
-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
40 Years 1 Jun 1984
31 May 2024 6.229 7.301 7.87
[ 4.91 ]
-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
50 Years 1 Jun 1974
31 May 2024 4.260 4.846 8.28
[ 4.32 ]
-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
60 Years 1 Jun 1964
31 May 2024 3.147 3.537 7.83
[ 3.74 ]
-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
70 Years 1 Jun 1954
31 May 2024 3.482 3.753 7.54
[ 3.83 ]
-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
80 Years 1 Jun 1944
31 May 2024 2.813 3.003 7.31
[ 3.51 ]
-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at May 2024)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio?

Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1974 - May 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jan 1908
0.000
Feb 1910
1.865
Jul 1911
4.988
Jul 1911
7.646
Dec 1915
9.066 9.895 10.537 12.044
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Aug 1898
0.259
Jul 1901
1.826
Jul 1901
3.392
Jul 1901
4.557
Apr 1911
5.065 5.243 5.599 7.121
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.674
Jul 1890
1.780
Jul 1890
2.588
May 1901
3.076
May 1901
3.565
May 1901
3.889 4.013 4.278 5.229
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.392
Apr 1940
1.840
Apr 1940
2.287
Apr 1940
2.728
Mar 1937
3.126
Feb 1937
3.306 3.424 3.630 4.255
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.910
Feb 1899
2.152
Feb 1899
2.353
Feb 1937
2.544
Feb 1937
2.736
Feb 1937
2.951 3.069 3.270 3.854
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.091
Feb 1899
2.234
Jan 1899
2.353
Feb 1937
2.462
Feb 1937
2.570
Feb 1937
2.766 2.858 3.031 3.616
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.102
Jul 1901
2.211
Jul 1901
2.319
Jul 1901
2.418
Feb 1937
2.485
Feb 1937
2.644 2.715 2.872 3.380
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.043
Jul 1901
2.142
Jul 1901
2.240
May 1901
2.337
May 1901
2.431
Feb 1937
2.556 2.616 2.758 3.180
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Nov 1936
1.442
Jun 1939
4.142
Jul 1972
6.664
Feb 1946
8.611
Feb 1946
9.605 10.041 10.777 12.036
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.759
Oct 1961
2.003
Mar 1937
3.002
Mar 1937
4.000
Mar 1937
4.997
Feb 1937
5.300 5.513 5.868 7.121
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.379
May 1940
2.001
May 1940
2.622
May 1940
3.231
Jan 1940
3.757
Feb 1937
3.983 4.288 4.486 5.247
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.392
Apr 1940
1.840
Apr 1940
2.287
Apr 1940
2.728
Mar 1937
3.126
Feb 1937
3.284 3.431 3.857 4.350
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.966
Dec 1936
2.162
Feb 1937
2.353
Feb 1937
2.544
Feb 1937
2.736
Feb 1937
2.897 3.004 3.329 3.914
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.135
Mar 1937
2.244
Feb 1937
2.353
Feb 1937
2.462
Feb 1937
2.570
Feb 1937
2.705 2.793 3.043 3.693
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.219
Feb 1937
2.285
Feb 1937
2.352
Feb 1937
2.418
Feb 1937
2.485
Feb 1937
2.610 2.658 2.824 3.566
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.252
Feb 1937
2.297
Feb 1937
2.341
Feb 1937
2.386
Feb 1937
2.431
Feb 1937
2.534 2.565 2.648 3.065
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.378
Oct 2012
3.911
Nov 2013
6.246
Jun 1974
8.431
Jun 1974
10.615
Jun 1974
11.247 11.443 11.743 12.464
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
3.079
Nov 2003
4.095
Jan 1999
4.946
Feb 1999
5.792
Feb 1999
6.639
Feb 1999
6.952 7.043 7.287 7.923
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
3.930
Nov 1993
4.462
Nov 1993
4.994
Nov 1993
5.390
Jun 1974
5.722
Jun 1974
6.050 6.113 6.240 6.682
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1974 - May 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.485%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.431%
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.736%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.570%
99.70
95% Succ.
2.644%
98.07
95% Succ.
2.556%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.126%
93.00
90% Succ.
3.069%
82.80
80% Succ.
3.031%
67.27
50% Succ.
3.380%
58.05
50% Succ.
3.180%
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.565%
87.15
80% Succ.
3.630%
66.10
50% Succ.
3.854%
56.68
50% Succ.
3.616%
46.51
40.70
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
90.76
90% Succ.
4.013%
62.70
50% Succ.
4.255%
41.79
30.66
28.64
27.89
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.557%
69.57
41.70
23.59
19.52
18.66
18.48
5.00 %
100.00
96.50
95% Succ.
5.065%
54.59
50% Succ.
5.229%
31.06
15.46
12.48
10.98
11.11
5.50 %
100.00
82.83
80% Succ.
5.599%
42.58
23.27
10.14
7.75
7.29
6.58
6.00 %
100.00
70.91
35.70
15.93
6.60
4.46
2.79
1.36
6.50 %
100.00
60.36
25.37
10.43
3.78
0.71
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
100.00
53.00
50% Succ.
7.121%
15.59
6.53
0.64
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.646%
38.45
9.78
3.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
99.19
28.15
6.34
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.485%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.431%
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.736%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.570%
99.17
95% Succ.
2.610%
97.51
95% Succ.
2.534%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.126%
90.02
90% Succ.
3.004%
82.12
80% Succ.
3.043%
70.08
57.26
50% Succ.
3.065%
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.757%
88.90
80% Succ.
3.857%
74.38
50% Succ.
3.914%
65.70
50% Succ.
3.693%
52.08
50% Succ.
3.566%
40.25
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
94.53
90% Succ.
4.288%
70.87
50% Succ.
4.350%
42.10
19.13
16.07
18.26
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.997%
78.60
42.58
11.65
7.28
7.48
4.15
5.00 %
100.00
99.79
95% Succ.
5.300%
56.12
50% Succ.
5.247%
25.94
5.16
0.21
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
100.00
90.32
90% Succ.
5.513%
41.85
19.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
100.00
75.34
34.01
10.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
100.00
62.75
21.76
5.69
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
100.00
53.28
50% Succ.
7.121%
10.23
2.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
100.00
36.42
4.88
1.66
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
100.00
23.93
2.26
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
5.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
5.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
5.722%
6.00 %
100.00
100.00
96.68
95% Succ.
6.050%
6.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
6.639%
61.00
50% Succ.
6.682%
7.00 %
100.00
91.69
90% Succ.
7.043%
32.78
7.50 %
100.00
68.98
50% Succ.
7.923%
17.01
8.00 %
100.00
47.09
7.88
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Related Pages

For the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com