Last Update: 30 April 2023
The Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio invests in 3 asset classes and can be suitable for a retirement plan.
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio
The Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio contains 30% Stocks, 60% Bonds, 10% Commodities.
Weight | Asset Class | Category |
---|---|---|
30.00 % | Total US Stock Market | Stocks |
60.00 % | US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries | Fixed Income |
10.00 % | Gold | Commodities |
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.45% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -14.7%.
6.24% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2023: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 3.600 | 7.467 |
5.97 [ 3.34 ] |
-14.70 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
30 Years |
1 May 1993 |
30 Apr 2023 | 4.223 | 6.240 |
6.45 [ 3.84 ] |
-14.70 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.240 | 6.311 |
7.51 [ 4.53 ] |
-14.70 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
50 Years |
1 May 1973 |
30 Apr 2023 | 3.683 | 4.277 |
8.14 [ 4.03 ] |
-14.70 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
60 Years |
1 May 1963 |
30 Apr 2023 | 3.193 | 3.591 |
7.78 [ 3.74 ] |
-14.70 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 3.749 | 4.025 |
7.58 [ 3.90 ] |
-14.70 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1898 |
0.259 Jul 1901 |
1.826 Jul 1901 |
3.392 Jul 1901 |
4.557 Apr 1911 |
5.062 | 5.242 | 5.592 | 7.119 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.674 Jul 1890 |
1.780 Jul 1890 |
2.588 May 1901 |
3.076 May 1901 |
3.565 May 1901 |
3.886 | 4.012 | 4.276 | 5.211 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.392 Apr 1940 |
1.840 Apr 1940 |
2.287 Apr 1940 |
2.728 Mar 1937 |
3.126 Feb 1937 |
3.301 | 3.417 | 3.627 | 4.248 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.910 Feb 1899 |
2.152 Feb 1899 |
2.353 Feb 1937 |
2.544 Feb 1937 |
2.736 Feb 1937 |
2.951 | 3.068 | 3.268 | 3.837 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.091 Feb 1899 |
2.234 Jan 1899 |
2.353 Feb 1937 |
2.462 Feb 1937 |
2.570 Feb 1937 |
2.764 | 2.856 | 3.026 | 3.621 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.102 Jul 1901 |
2.211 Jul 1901 |
2.319 Jul 1901 |
2.418 Feb 1937 |
2.485 Feb 1937 |
2.641 | 2.715 | 2.869 | 3.342 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.759 Oct 1961 |
2.003 Mar 1937 |
3.002 Mar 1937 |
4.000 Mar 1937 |
4.997 Feb 1937 |
5.300 | 5.513 | 5.868 | 7.154 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.379 May 1940 |
2.001 May 1940 |
2.622 May 1940 |
3.231 Jan 1940 |
3.757 Feb 1937 |
3.983 | 4.288 | 4.486 | 5.247 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.392 Apr 1940 |
1.840 Apr 1940 |
2.287 Apr 1940 |
2.728 Mar 1937 |
3.126 Feb 1937 |
3.284 | 3.431 | 3.857 | 4.350 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.966 Dec 1936 |
2.162 Feb 1937 |
2.353 Feb 1937 |
2.544 Feb 1937 |
2.736 Feb 1937 |
2.897 | 3.004 | 3.329 | 3.914 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.135 Mar 1937 |
2.244 Feb 1937 |
2.353 Feb 1937 |
2.462 Feb 1937 |
2.570 Feb 1937 |
2.705 | 2.793 | 3.043 | 3.720 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.219 Feb 1937 |
2.285 Feb 1937 |
2.352 Feb 1937 |
2.418 Feb 1937 |
2.485 Feb 1937 |
2.610 | 2.658 | 2.824 | 3.566 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.224 Jan 1999 |
4.049 Jun 1973 |
4.692 Jun 1973 |
5.334 Jun 1973 |
5.975 Jul 1973 |
6.818 | 6.983 | 7.267 | 7.923 | |
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.684 Jul 1973 |
4.010 Jul 1973 |
4.335 Jul 1973 |
4.661 Jul 1973 |
4.987 Jul 1973 |
5.587 | 6.051 | 6.223 | 6.682 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.485% |
|||||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.736% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.570% |
99.70
|
95% Succ. 2.641% |
|||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.126% |
92.92
|
90% Succ. 3.068% |
82.60
|
80% Succ. 3.026% |
66.84
|
50% Succ. 3.342% |
||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.565% |
87.03
|
80% Succ. 3.627% |
65.74
|
50% Succ. 3.837% |
56.18
|
50% Succ. 3.621% |
45.80
|
||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
90.67
|
90% Succ. 4.012% |
62.34
|
50% Succ. 4.248% |
41.17
|
31.02
|
28.51
|
||||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.557% |
69.30
|
41.14
|
23.43
|
19.75
|
18.91
|
|||||
5.00 % |
96.48
|
95% Succ. 5.062% |
54.19
|
50% Succ. 5.211% |
30.39
|
15.62
|
12.62
|
11.12
|
||||
5.50 % |
82.69
|
80% Succ. 5.592% |
42.07
|
22.54
|
10.25
|
7.84
|
7.38
|
|||||
6.00 % |
70.67
|
35.13
|
15.12
|
6.67
|
4.51
|
2.83
|
||||||
6.50 % |
60.04
|
25.60
|
9.71
|
3.82
|
0.72
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.00 % |
52.80
|
50% Succ. 7.119% |
15.72
|
6.45
|
0.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
7.50 % |
38.77
|
9.87
|
3.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
8.00 % |
28.38
|
6.40
|
0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.485% |
|||||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.736% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.570% |
99.17
|
95% Succ. 2.610% |
|||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.126% |
90.02
|
90% Succ. 3.004% |
82.12
|
80% Succ. 3.043% |
70.08
|
|||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.757% |
88.90
|
80% Succ. 3.857% |
74.38
|
50% Succ. 3.914% |
65.70
|
50% Succ. 3.720% |
52.08
|
50% Succ. 3.566% |
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
94.53
|
90% Succ. 4.288% |
70.87
|
50% Succ. 4.350% |
42.10
|
21.83
|
18.28
|
||||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.997% |
78.60
|
42.58
|
12.98
|
9.98
|
11.08
|
|||||
5.00 % |
99.79
|
95% Succ. 5.300% |
56.12
|
50% Succ. 5.247% |
25.94
|
7.32
|
2.70
|
0.55
|
||||
5.50 % |
90.32
|
90% Succ. 5.513% |
41.85
|
19.56
|
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
6.00 % |
75.34
|
34.01
|
10.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
6.50 % |
62.75
|
23.31
|
4.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
7.00 % |
53.59
|
50% Succ. 7.154% |
11.77
|
2.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
7.50 % |
37.77
|
4.99
|
1.66
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
8.00 % |
25.29
|
2.26
|
0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.987% |
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
99.17
|
||
5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.975% |
95.02
|
95% Succ. 5.587% |
6.00 % |
99.45
|
91.29
|
90% Succ. 6.051% |
|
6.50 % |
96.68
|
95% Succ. 6.818% |
61.00
|
50% Succ. 6.682% |
7.00 % |
88.92
|
80% Succ. 7.267% |
32.78
|
|
7.50 % |
68.98
|
50% Succ. 7.923% |
17.01
|
|
8.00 % |
47.09
|
7.88
|
Related Pages
For the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com