Last Update: 30 November 2024
The US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio invests in 1 asset class and is allocated for 0% on Stocks.
In the period Jan 1871 - Nov 2024, the portfolio granted a 4.49% annualized return, with a -17.28% maximum drawdown.
Key Points
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.461% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 52.15% of cases, and for 50 years in the 12.82% of cases .
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio
The US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio contains 100% Bonds.
Weight | Asset Class | Category |
---|---|---|
100.00 % | Total US Bond Market | Fixed Income |
Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 4.46% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.
5.464% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at November 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
10 Years |
1 Dec 2014 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.000 | 9.721 |
1.49 [ -1.41 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
20 Years |
1 Dec 2004 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.507 | 5.816 |
3.01 [ 0.46 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
30 Years |
1 Dec 1994 |
30 Nov 2024 | 2.350 | 5.464 |
4.46 [ 1.89 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
40 Years |
1 Dec 1984 |
30 Nov 2024 | 3.915 | 5.775 |
5.74 [ 2.87 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
50 Years |
1 Dec 1974 |
30 Nov 2024 | 2.828 | 3.931 |
6.36 [ 2.57 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
60 Years |
1 Dec 1964 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.831 | 2.630 |
6.02 [ 2.01 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
70 Years |
1 Dec 1954 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.635 | 2.252 |
5.52 [ 1.87 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
80 Years |
1 Dec 1944 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.003 | 1.513 |
5.09 [ 1.37 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1896 |
0.000 Jan 1910 |
1.908 May 1941 |
4.931 May 1941 |
7.490 Sep 1915 |
8.364 | 8.728 | 9.711 | 10.958 | |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1897 |
0.000 Jan 1899 |
0.947 Aug 1939 |
2.376 Aug 1939 |
3.660 Feb 1941 |
4.156 | 4.604 | 4.823 | 5.919 | ||
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1890 |
0.000 Jun 1939 |
0.753 May 1940 |
1.637 Nov 1940 |
2.461 Feb 1941 |
2.812 | 3.058 | 3.466 | 4.089 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1938 |
0.157 Sep 1941 |
1.008 Aug 1941 |
1.834 Feb 1941 |
2.068 | 2.248 | 2.784 | 3.271 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1931 |
0.226 Jun 1934 |
0.748 Jun 1934 |
1.202 Jun 1939 |
1.513 Feb 1941 |
1.719 | 1.792 | 2.377 | 2.824 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.629 Oct 1915 |
0.844 Aug 1939 |
1.026 Aug 1939 |
1.207 Aug 1939 |
1.384 Feb 1941 |
1.536 | 1.617 | 2.085 | 2.457 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.257 Aug 1911 |
0.654 May 1911 |
1.044 May 1911 |
1.183 Jun 1939 |
1.307 Feb 1941 |
1.435 | 1.499 | 1.836 | 2.162 | ||
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.450 May 1901 |
0.771 May 1901 |
1.050 Jun 1939 |
1.151 Jun 1939 |
1.252 Feb 1941 |
1.357 | 1.417 | 1.678 | 1.991 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1936 |
0.000 Jul 1938 |
1.908 May 1941 |
4.931 May 1941 |
7.812 Feb 1946 |
8.503 | 8.798 | 9.631 | 10.753 | |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Sep 1938 |
0.947 Aug 1939 |
2.376 Aug 1939 |
3.660 Feb 1941 |
4.025 | 4.245 | 4.739 | 5.625 | ||
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Oct 1932 |
0.000 Jun 1939 |
0.753 May 1940 |
1.637 Nov 1940 |
2.461 Feb 1941 |
2.696 | 2.825 | 3.198 | 3.807 | ||
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1938 |
0.157 Sep 1941 |
1.008 Aug 1941 |
1.834 Feb 1941 |
1.997 | 2.073 | 2.290 | 3.101 | ||
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1931 |
0.226 Jun 1934 |
0.748 Jun 1934 |
1.202 Jun 1939 |
1.513 Feb 1941 |
1.595 | 1.716 | 1.791 | 2.675 | ||
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.663 Aug 1939 |
0.844 Aug 1939 |
1.026 Aug 1939 |
1.207 Aug 1939 |
1.384 Feb 1941 |
1.434 | 1.524 | 1.591 | 2.263 | ||
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.805 Jun 1939 |
0.931 Jun 1939 |
1.057 Jun 1939 |
1.183 Jun 1939 |
1.307 Feb 1941 |
1.339 | 1.390 | 1.466 | 1.866 | ||
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.847 Jun 1939 |
0.949 Jun 1939 |
1.050 Jun 1939 |
1.151 Jun 1939 |
1.252 Feb 1941 |
1.276 | 1.294 | 1.369 | 1.476 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 2012 |
0.946 Nov 2013 |
4.017 Nov 2012 |
6.919 Dec 2014 |
9.085 Dec 1976 |
9.674 | 10.132 | 10.775 | 11.787 | |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.110 Nov 2003 |
1.549 Nov 2003 |
2.985 Oct 2003 |
4.392 Apr 2004 |
5.761 Apr 2004 |
5.919 | 6.079 | 6.308 | 7.149 | ||
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.685 Nov 1993 |
2.514 Nov 1993 |
3.342 Nov 1993 |
4.171 Nov 1993 |
4.809 Dec 1976 |
5.017 | 5.070 | 5.237 | 5.867 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.461% |
97.30
|
95% Succ. 2.068% |
86.54
|
80% Succ. 2.377% |
82.89
|
80% Succ. 2.085% |
64.88
|
50% Succ. 2.162% |
49.55
|
|||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.40
|
95% Succ. 2.812% |
87.06
|
80% Succ. 2.784% |
74.12
|
50% Succ. 2.824% |
47.61
|
33.33
|
27.70
|
|||||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.93
|
90% Succ. 3.058% |
69.30
|
50% Succ. 3.271% |
40.63
|
22.07
|
19.25
|
18.24
|
||||||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.660% |
78.16
|
43.42
|
20.59
|
14.98
|
12.40
|
9.68
|
|||||||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
97.39
|
95% Succ. 4.156% |
52.15
|
50% Succ. 4.089% |
29.90
|
12.82
|
9.75
|
7.44
|
7.32
|
||||||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
92.29
|
90% Succ. 4.604% |
44.69
|
20.39
|
7.37
|
5.94
|
5.75
|
5.63
|
|||||||
5.00 % |
100.00
|
72.51
|
38.98
|
15.06
|
5.37
|
4.61
|
4.56
|
3.83
|
||||||||
5.50 % |
100.00
|
55.22
|
50% Succ. 5.919% |
26.41
|
11.04
|
4.17
|
3.19
|
2.38
|
0.68
|
|||||||
6.00 % |
100.00
|
49.19
|
17.41
|
8.26
|
3.04
|
1.24
|
0.20
|
0.00
|
||||||||
6.50 % |
100.00
|
42.48
|
12.70
|
5.70
|
1.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
7.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.490% |
34.51
|
8.74
|
3.51
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
7.50 % |
99.94
|
26.49
|
6.05
|
1.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
8.00 % |
97.69
|
18.35
|
3.83
|
0.22
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.461% |
94.87
|
90% Succ. 2.073% |
72.05
|
61.54
|
50% Succ. 2.263% |
43.77
|
29.46
|
|||||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.93
|
95% Succ. 2.696% |
75.45
|
60.07
|
50% Succ. 2.675% |
35.34
|
3.60
|
0.00
|
||||||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
83.95
|
80% Succ. 3.198% |
57.70
|
50% Succ. 3.101% |
26.46
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.660% |
71.11
|
50% Succ. 3.807% |
35.78
|
4.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
95.63
|
95% Succ. 4.025% |
46.85
|
21.78
|
0.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
87.83
|
80% Succ. 4.739% |
38.76
|
13.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
5.00 % |
100.00
|
70.76
|
34.72
|
10.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
5.50 % |
100.00
|
53.28
|
50% Succ. 5.625% |
20.10
|
8.88
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
6.00 % |
100.00
|
44.64
|
11.53
|
6.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
6.50 % |
100.00
|
36.00
|
8.09
|
3.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
7.00 % |
100.00
|
28.62
|
5.71
|
1.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.812% |
21.23
|
3.21
|
0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
8.00 % |
98.70
|
11.76
|
2.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.809% |
||
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.85
|
95% Succ. 5.017% |
||
5.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.761% |
68.46
|
50% Succ. 5.867% |
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
92.52
|
90% Succ. 6.079% |
40.25
|
||
6.50 % |
100.00
|
74.24
|
28.22
|
|||
7.00 % |
100.00
|
55.96
|
50% Succ. 7.149% |
19.92
|
||
7.50 % |
100.00
|
37.95
|
11.20
|
|||
8.00 % |
100.00
|
21.05
|
7.05
|
Related Pages
For the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com