US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio: FIRE and Retirement Simulations
Simulation Settings
Period: January 1871 - April 2025
Last update as of 30 April 2025
Withdrawal: Monthly
Rebalancing: at each withdrawal
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
Results
January 1871 - April 2025
30 Years Stats
3.851%
Safe Withdrawal Rate
99.06%
4% Rule - Success
50 Years Stats
3.114%
Safe Withdrawal Rate
54.75%
4% Rule - Success
The US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and is allocated for 40% on Stocks.
In the period Jan 1871 - Apr 2025, the portfolio granted a 6.67% annualized return, with a -45.05% maximum drawdown.
Key Points
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.851% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.06% of cases, and for 50 years in the 54.75% of cases .
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio
The US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio contains 40% Stocks, 60% Bonds.
| Weight | Asset Class | Category |
|---|---|---|
| 40.00 % | Total US Stock Market | Stocks |
| 60.00 % | Total US Bond Market | Fixed Income |
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2025), the portfolio has returned 6.91% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.12%.
6.758% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2025: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Apr 2025 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 May 2015 |
30 Apr 2025 | 2.558 | 11.614 |
5.69 [ 2.52 ] |
-18.59 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 20 Years |
1 May 2005 |
30 Apr 2025 | 3.494 | 7.025 |
6.12 [ 3.50 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 30 Years |
1 May 1995 |
30 Apr 2025 | 4.835 | 6.758 |
6.91 [ 4.28 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 40 Years |
1 May 1985 |
30 Apr 2025 | 6.335 | 7.335 |
8.04 [ 5.11 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 50 Years |
1 May 1975 |
30 Apr 2025 | 4.944 | 5.447 |
8.73 [ 4.88 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 60 Years |
1 May 1965 |
30 Apr 2025 | 2.945 | 3.282 |
7.97 [ 3.87 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 70 Years |
1 May 1955 |
30 Apr 2025 | 3.558 | 3.792 |
7.82 [ 4.06 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 80 Years |
1 May 1945 |
30 Apr 2025 | 3.161 | 3.317 |
7.73 [ 3.90 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2025)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation.
The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1908 |
0.000 Mar 1910 |
2.040 Jul 1911 |
5.144 Jul 1911 |
7.824 Dec 1915 |
8.887 | 9.771 | 10.598 | 12.400 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1899 |
0.644 Jul 1901 |
2.157 Jul 1901 |
3.670 Jul 1901 |
4.823 Jul 1911 |
5.178 | 5.387 | 5.747 | 7.269 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.544 Jul 1890 |
2.379 Jun 1902 |
2.969 Jun 1902 |
3.429 May 1901 |
3.851 Jul 1901 |
4.124 | 4.300 | 4.531 | 5.659 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.846 Apr 1940 |
2.316 Apr 1940 |
2.785 Apr 1940 |
3.172 Mar 1937 |
3.423 Jul 1901 |
3.691 | 3.789 | 3.953 | 4.591 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.397 Jul 1901 |
2.585 Jul 1901 |
2.770 Feb 1937 |
2.942 Feb 1937 |
3.114 Mar 1937 |
3.368 | 3.476 | 3.630 | 4.106 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.597 Mar 1937 |
2.685 Mar 1937 |
2.773 Mar 1937 |
2.862 Mar 1937 |
2.950 Mar 1937 |
3.192 | 3.314 | 3.490 | 3.942 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.572 Jul 1911 |
2.678 Jul 1901 |
2.750 Jul 1901 |
2.819 Mar 1937 |
2.873 Mar 1937 |
3.090 | 3.201 | 3.370 | 3.910 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.488 Jul 1901 |
2.568 Jul 1901 |
2.648 Jul 1901 |
2.728 Jul 1901 |
2.808 Jul 1901 |
3.000 | 3.090 | 3.249 | 3.738 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1936 |
0.199 Oct 1971 |
2.957 Jul 1972 |
5.679 Jun 1972 |
8.111 Jan 1973 |
9.408 | 9.890 | 10.580 | 12.302 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Oct 1961 |
1.441 Oct 1961 |
2.875 Apr 1962 |
4.026 May 1965 |
4.845 Sep 1968 |
5.162 | 5.462 | 5.882 | 7.145 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.116 Feb 1946 |
2.681 Feb 1946 |
3.246 Feb 1946 |
3.622 May 1965 |
3.962 Nov 1965 |
4.164 | 4.334 | 4.594 | 5.684 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.846 Apr 1940 |
2.316 Apr 1940 |
2.785 Apr 1940 |
3.172 Mar 1937 |
3.539 Mar 1937 |
3.719 | 3.787 | 3.948 | 4.570 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.424 Feb 1937 |
2.597 Feb 1937 |
2.770 Feb 1937 |
2.942 Feb 1937 |
3.114 Mar 1937 |
3.381 | 3.468 | 3.607 | 4.018 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.597 Mar 1937 |
2.685 Mar 1937 |
2.773 Mar 1937 |
2.862 Mar 1937 |
2.950 Mar 1937 |
3.196 | 3.306 | 3.492 | 3.880 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.655 Mar 1937 |
2.710 Mar 1937 |
2.764 Mar 1937 |
2.819 Mar 1937 |
2.873 Mar 1937 |
3.090 | 3.169 | 3.393 | 3.955 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.673 Feb 1937 |
2.710 Feb 1937 |
2.746 Feb 1937 |
2.783 Mar 1937 |
2.819 Mar 1937 |
3.014 | 3.059 | 3.203 | 3.662 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Mar 1999 |
2.683 Mar 1999 |
5.413 Feb 1999 |
7.895 Sep 2000 |
10.127 Jan 1977 |
10.598 | 10.915 | 11.373 | 12.885 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.736 Apr 2000 |
3.569 Apr 2000 |
4.402 Apr 2000 |
5.234 Apr 2000 |
6.067 Apr 2000 |
6.313 | 6.578 | 6.997 | 8.319 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
4.324 Nov 1993 |
4.844 Nov 1993 |
5.363 Nov 1993 |
5.667 Jan 1977 |
5.954 Jan 1977 |
6.183 | 6.425 | 6.646 | 7.115 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.950% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.873% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.808% |
|||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.423% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.114% |
99.56
|
95% Succ. 3.192% |
98.52
|
95% Succ. 3.090% |
95.07
|
95% Succ. 3.000% |
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.851% |
99.85
|
95% Succ. 3.691% |
88.83
|
80% Succ. 3.630% |
79.35
|
50% Succ. 3.942% |
70.48
|
50% Succ. 3.910% |
61.70
|
50% Succ. 3.738% |
||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.06
|
95% Succ. 4.124% |
78.08
|
54.75
|
50% Succ. 4.106% |
47.57
|
47.19
|
40.65
|
||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.823% |
81.51
|
80% Succ. 4.531% |
53.31
|
50% Succ. 4.591% |
36.63
|
31.51
|
31.59
|
31.58
|
|||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
98.02
|
95% Succ. 5.178% |
61.62
|
38.53
|
24.10
|
21.54
|
20.24
|
21.16
|
|||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
86.73
|
80% Succ. 5.747% |
52.65
|
50% Succ. 5.659% |
30.81
|
17.08
|
14.83
|
14.31
|
14.78
|
||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
75.20
|
41.80
|
23.09
|
13.01
|
10.15
|
9.67
|
10.30
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
67.39
|
33.82
|
17.55
|
8.54
|
7.06
|
6.42
|
6.38
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
55.92
|
50% Succ. 7.269% |
24.45
|
13.47
|
5.51
|
3.62
|
1.88
|
1.01
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.824% |
46.00
|
16.14
|
9.76
|
2.55
|
0.44
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
99.65
|
38.07
|
12.06
|
5.54
|
0.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.950% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.873% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.819% |
|||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.114% |
99.38
|
95% Succ. 3.196% |
98.34
|
95% Succ. 3.090% |
95.44
|
95% Succ. 3.014% |
||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.962% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.539% |
87.35
|
80% Succ. 3.607% |
79.21
|
50% Succ. 3.880% |
75.35
|
50% Succ. 3.955% |
65.15
|
50% Succ. 3.662% |
||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.41
|
95% Succ. 4.164% |
78.22
|
51.41
|
50% Succ. 4.018% |
41.79
|
47.65
|
30.29
|
||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.845% |
83.35
|
80% Succ. 4.594% |
52.43
|
50% Succ. 4.570% |
28.62
|
19.33
|
18.01
|
15.35
|
|||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
97.81
|
95% Succ. 5.162% |
64.92
|
35.78
|
9.32
|
6.03
|
4.99
|
6.22
|
|||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
89.28
|
80% Succ. 5.882% |
52.32
|
50% Succ. 5.684% |
23.99
|
4.99
|
0.42
|
0.55
|
0.83
|
||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
78.15
|
40.67
|
17.20
|
0.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
68.68
|
30.20
|
11.51
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
54.01
|
50% Succ. 7.145% |
19.02
|
9.57
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
43.08
|
10.58
|
6.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
35.59
|
8.09
|
3.19
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.954% |
||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.067% |
99.59
|
95% Succ. 6.183% |
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
92.24
|
90% Succ. 6.578% |
86.72
|
80% Succ. 6.646% |
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
79.78
|
56.43
|
50% Succ. 7.115% |
||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
67.87
|
36.10
|
|||
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
59.83
|
27.39
|
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025
Related Pages
For the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com