US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 30 April 2024

The US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and is allocated for 50% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - Apr 2024, the portfolio granted a 7.13% annualized return, with a -54.89% maximum drawdown.

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.952% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.86% of cases, and for 50 years in the 74.21% of cases .

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio

The US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio contains 50% Stocks, 50% Bonds.

Weight Asset Class Category
50.00 % Total US Stock Market Stocks
50.00 % Total US Bond Market Fixed Income

Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.56% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -26.93%.

7.228% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Apr 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 May 2014
30 Apr 2024 3.816 12.640 6.60
[ 3.66 ]
-19.62
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
20 Years 1 May 2004
30 Apr 2024 3.911 7.213 6.68
[ 3.98 ]
-26.93
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
30 Years 1 May 1994
30 Apr 2024 5.500 7.228 7.56
[ 4.88 ]
-26.93
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
40 Years 1 May 1984
30 Apr 2024 7.369 8.224 8.81
[ 5.82 ]
-26.93
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
50 Years 1 May 1974
30 Apr 2024 4.844 5.271 9.18
[ 5.15 ]
-26.93
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
60 Years 1 May 1964
30 Apr 2024 3.294 3.581 8.41
[ 4.30 ]
-26.93
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
70 Years 1 May 1954
30 Apr 2024 4.538 4.730 8.43
[ 4.68 ]
-26.93
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
80 Years 1 May 1944
30 Apr 2024 4.223 4.341 8.45
[ 4.61 ]
-26.93
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2024

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2024)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?

Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1924 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1974 - Apr 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
May 1908
0.000
Mar 1910
1.966
Jul 1911
5.097
Jul 1911
7.870
Dec 1915
8.923 9.848 10.690 12.680
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jun 1900
0.715
Jul 1901
2.225
Jul 1901
3.736
Jul 1901
4.811
Dec 1968
5.234 5.485 5.961 7.615
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.778
Jun 1902
2.402
Jun 1902
3.025
Jun 1902
3.556
Jul 1901
3.952
Jul 1901
4.229 4.444 4.770 5.981
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.570
Mar 1937
2.885
Mar 1937
3.100
Jul 1901
3.313
Jul 1901
3.526
Jul 1901
3.824 3.966 4.211 4.937
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.621
Jul 1901
2.783
Jul 1901
2.944
Jul 1901
3.106
Jul 1901
3.267
Jul 1901
3.557 3.689 3.903 4.445
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.842
Jul 1901
2.914
Jul 1901
2.986
Jul 1901
3.058
Jul 1901
3.130
Jul 1901
3.458 3.620 3.813 4.350
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.846
Jul 1901
2.898
Jul 1901
2.951
Jul 1901
3.004
Jul 1901
3.057
Jul 1901
3.330 3.503 3.720 4.356
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.760
Jul 1901
2.817
Jul 1901
2.874
Jul 1901
2.932
Jul 1901
2.989
Jul 1901
3.243 3.403 3.617 4.188
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Dec 1938
0.202
Jul 1972
2.921
Jul 1972
5.606
Jun 1972
7.968
Jan 1973
9.453 9.971 10.684 12.643
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.368
Oct 1961
1.746
Apr 1962
3.092
Apr 1962
4.091
Nov 1965
4.811
Dec 1968
5.186 5.541 6.144 7.498
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.654
Feb 1965
3.014
Feb 1965
3.373
Feb 1965
3.713
Nov 1965
4.022
Dec 1968
4.243 4.488 4.894 6.113
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.570
Mar 1937
2.885
Mar 1937
3.200
Mar 1937
3.494
Dec 1968
3.702
Nov 1965
3.857 4.043 4.269 5.024
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.866
Feb 1937
3.010
Feb 1937
3.153
Mar 1937
3.296
Mar 1937
3.438
Mar 1937
3.607 3.708 3.903 4.420
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
3.004
Mar 1937
3.075
Mar 1937
3.146
Mar 1937
3.216
Mar 1937
3.287
Mar 1937
3.656 3.721 3.938 4.396
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
3.047
Mar 1937
3.090
Mar 1937
3.133
Mar 1937
3.176
Mar 1937
3.219
Mar 1937
3.578 3.670 3.944 4.549
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
3.060
Mar 1937
3.087
Mar 1937
3.115
Mar 1937
3.143
Mar 1937
3.170
Mar 1937
3.423 3.566 3.778 4.313
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Feb 1999
1.999
Mar 1999
4.922
Mar 1999
7.392
Sep 2000
9.691
Sep 2000
10.586 10.880 11.319 13.327
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.663
Apr 2000
3.461
Apr 2000
4.260
Apr 2000
5.059
Apr 2000
5.857
Apr 2000
6.208 6.571 7.300 8.628
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
4.872
Nov 1993
5.245
May 1974
5.513
May 1974
5.781
May 1974
6.048
May 1974
6.427 6.714 6.870 7.432
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1924 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1974 - Apr 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.989%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.267%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.130%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.057%
99.89
95% Succ.
3.243%
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.952%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.526%
97.42
95% Succ.
3.557%
93.76
90% Succ.
3.620%
90.01
90% Succ.
3.503%
85.70
80% Succ.
3.617%
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
99.86
95% Succ.
4.229%
88.98
80% Succ.
4.211%
74.21
50% Succ.
4.445%
68.42
50% Succ.
4.350%
64.14
50% Succ.
4.356%
57.89
50% Succ.
4.188%
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.811%
87.44
80% Succ.
4.770%
65.61
50% Succ.
4.937%
47.86
44.51
44.56
38.71
5.00 %
100.00
98.69
95% Succ.
5.234%
71.57
48.27
33.84
34.61
33.97
29.28
5.50 %
100.00
89.57
80% Succ.
5.961%
58.47
50% Succ.
5.981%
38.87
23.05
21.23
20.98
21.79
6.00 %
100.00
79.01
49.63
28.80
15.95
15.61
15.68
16.57
6.50 %
100.00
70.96
41.32
20.87
12.73
10.62
9.99
10.56
7.00 %
100.00
62.52
31.94
16.53
8.38
6.60
5.69
5.11
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.870%
51.84
50% Succ.
7.615%
20.93
12.34
5.00
2.59
1.50
1.25
8.00 %
99.71
42.29
14.65
7.64
1.61
0.71
0.30
0.23
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.438%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.287%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.219%
100.00
100% Succ.
3.170%
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.702%
99.33
95% Succ.
3.607%
98.13
95% Succ.
3.656%
96.40
95% Succ.
3.578%
92.95
90% Succ.
3.566%
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.022%
90.98
90% Succ.
4.043%
74.21
50% Succ.
4.420%
76.72
50% Succ.
4.396%
75.90
66.80
50% Succ.
4.313%
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.811%
89.42
80% Succ.
4.894%
69.63
45.92
44.49
51.52
50% Succ.
4.549%
35.68
5.00 %
100.00
98.34
95% Succ.
5.186%
76.46
50.62
50% Succ.
5.024%
28.29
30.35
32.96
22.82
5.50 %
100.00
90.32
90% Succ.
5.541%
61.47
38.83
14.14
12.47
12.19
13.28
6.00 %
100.00
82.93
80% Succ.
6.144%
52.68
50% Succ.
6.113%
25.10
6.16
3.74
2.49
2.49
6.50 %
100.00
73.36
43.52
16.50
1.66
0.83
0.55
0.83
7.00 %
100.00
62.33
50% Succ.
7.498%
29.49
11.10
0.33
0.42
0.55
0.83
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.968%
49.95
16.88
7.63
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
99.81
41.21
9.99
4.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
5.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
5.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
5.857%
100.00
6.00 %
100.00
99.17
95% Succ.
6.208%
100.00
100% Succ.
6.048%
6.50 %
100.00
91.41
90% Succ.
6.571%
93.36
90% Succ.
6.714%
7.00 %
100.00
83.93
80% Succ.
7.300%
73.44
50% Succ.
7.432%
7.50 %
100.00
74.52
46.47
8.00 %
100.00
64.27
31.95
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2024

Related Pages

For the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com