US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 31 May 2024

The US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio invests in 1 asset class and is allocated for 100% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - May 2024, the portfolio granted a 9.15% annualized return, with a -84.6% maximum drawdown.

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.895% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 98.58% of cases, and for 50 years in the 91.55% of cases .

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio

The US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio contains 100% Stocks.

Weight Asset Class Category
100.00 % Total US Stock Market Stocks

Over the last 30 years (last update: May 2024), the portfolio has returned 10.43% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.84%.

8.819% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at May 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at May 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Jun 2014
31 May 2024 8.497 14.769 12.01
[ 8.94 ]
-24.81
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
20 Years 1 Jun 2004
31 May 2024 6.037 7.936 10.17
[ 7.41 ]
-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
30 Years 1 Jun 1994
31 May 2024 7.862 8.819 10.43
[ 7.68 ]
-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
40 Years 1 Jun 1984
31 May 2024 9.793 10.205 11.41
[ 8.36 ]
-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
50 Years 1 Jun 1974
31 May 2024 6.300 6.477 11.54
[ 7.46 ]
-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
60 Years 1 Jun 1964
31 May 2024 4.035 4.151 10.33
[ 6.14 ]
-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
70 Years 1 Jun 1954
31 May 2024 7.942 8.009 10.90
[ 7.08 ]
-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
80 Years 1 Jun 1944
31 May 2024 8.382 8.410 11.38
[ 7.43 ]
-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at May 2024)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?

Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1974 - May 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jun 1908
0.000
Jun 1910
1.421
Jul 1911
3.563
Sep 1929
5.426
Sep 1929
8.369 9.025 10.589 13.907
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
May 1901
0.860
Jul 1901
1.765
Sep 1929
2.546
Sep 1929
3.326
Sep 1929
5.136 5.481 6.150 8.922
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
1.062
Jun 1902
1.981
Jun 1902
2.619
Sep 1929
2.757
Sep 1929
2.895
Sep 1929
4.369 4.660 5.208 7.420
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.492
Sep 1929
2.565
Sep 1929
2.637
Sep 1929
2.710
Sep 1929
2.782
Sep 1929
4.020 4.239 4.742 6.552
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.391
Sep 1929
2.466
Sep 1929
2.542
Sep 1929
2.617
Sep 1929
2.693
Sep 1929
3.831 4.045 4.488 5.971
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.526
Sep 1929
2.553
Sep 1929
2.581
Sep 1929
2.608
Sep 1929
2.636
Sep 1929
3.898 4.150 4.692 6.030
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.581
Sep 1929
2.589
Sep 1929
2.598
Sep 1929
2.606
Sep 1929
2.615
Sep 1929
3.842 4.033 4.654 6.118
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.562
Sep 1929
2.573
Sep 1929
2.583
Sep 1929
2.594
Sep 1929
2.605
Sep 1929
3.781 3.974 4.505 5.814
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Apr 1928
0.000
Sep 1929
1.653
Mar 1999
3.563
Sep 1929
5.426
Sep 1929
8.053 8.902 10.431 13.987
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.205
Sep 1929
0.985
Sep 1929
1.765
Sep 1929
2.546
Sep 1929
3.326
Sep 1929
4.960 5.267 6.079 9.034
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.343
Sep 1929
2.481
Sep 1929
2.619
Sep 1929
2.757
Sep 1929
2.895
Sep 1929
4.223 4.532 5.261 7.990
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.492
Sep 1929
2.565
Sep 1929
2.637
Sep 1929
2.710
Sep 1929
2.782
Sep 1929
3.939 4.193 4.758 7.012
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.391
Sep 1929
2.466
Sep 1929
2.542
Sep 1929
2.617
Sep 1929
2.693
Sep 1929
3.738 3.969 4.380 6.154
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.526
Sep 1929
2.553
Sep 1929
2.581
Sep 1929
2.608
Sep 1929
2.636
Sep 1929
4.019 4.456 4.995 6.716
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.581
Sep 1929
2.589
Sep 1929
2.598
Sep 1929
2.606
Sep 1929
2.615
Sep 1929
3.795 4.427 5.556 7.661
80 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.562
Sep 1929
2.573
Sep 1929
2.583
Sep 1929
2.594
Sep 1929
2.605
Sep 1929
3.316 3.971 4.759 6.635
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Nov 1998
0.000
Jan 1999
1.653
Mar 1999
4.875
Sep 2000
7.497
Sep 2000
9.350 10.279 11.376 14.654
20 Years
Worst Period (from)
2.010
Apr 2000
2.678
Apr 2000
3.346
Apr 2000
4.014
Apr 2000
4.682
Apr 2000
5.405 6.236 7.975 9.852
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
5.841
Sep 1987
6.097
Sep 1987
6.353
Sep 1987
6.609
Sep 1987
6.865
Sep 1987
7.415 7.698 8.191 8.817
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1974 - May 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.895%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.782%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.693%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.636%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.615%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.605%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.326%
99.93
99.85
99.76
99.73
99.60
99.55
3.50 %
100.00
99.88
99.53
99.41
98.79
95% Succ.
3.831%
98.57
95% Succ.
3.898%
98.40
95% Succ.
3.842%
97.96
95% Succ.
3.781%
4.00 %
100.00
99.75
98.58
95% Succ.
4.369%
95.30
95% Succ.
4.020%
91.55
90% Succ.
4.045%
93.23
90% Succ.
4.150%
91.02
90% Succ.
4.033%
89.12
4.50 %
100.00
98.94
93.05
90% Succ.
4.660%
84.14
80% Succ.
4.742%
79.71
84.05
80% Succ.
4.692%
82.83
80% Succ.
4.654%
80.16
80% Succ.
4.505%
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.426%
96.25
95% Succ.
5.136%
83.67
80% Succ.
5.208%
75.26
69.81
73.53
73.55
69.16
5.50 %
99.94
89.76
76.38
67.91
58.13
50% Succ.
5.971%
61.41
62.38
56.58
50% Succ.
5.814%
6.00 %
99.83
82.08
80% Succ.
6.150%
70.72
58.37
49.44
50.80
50% Succ.
6.030%
52.50
50% Succ.
6.118%
45.24
6.50 %
99.77
75.97
64.44
50.66
50% Succ.
6.552%
40.34
41.71
44.01
36.85
7.00 %
99.30
72.35
57.62
50% Succ.
7.420%
42.58
34.46
35.92
39.02
31.63
7.50 %
98.61
68.85
48.92
36.86
29.31
31.46
33.43
25.28
8.00 %
97.27
62.30
42.24
31.57
23.67
23.08
23.65
14.85
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.895%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.782%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.693%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.636%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.615%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.605%
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
3.326%
99.88
99.72
99.50
99.38
98.89
98.34
95% Succ.
3.316%
3.50 %
100.00
99.79
99.17
98.89
95% Succ.
3.939%
97.50
95% Succ.
3.738%
96.88
95.84
95% Succ.
3.795%
93.78
90% Succ.
3.971%
4.00 %
100.00
99.58
97.50
95% Succ.
4.223%
93.90
90% Succ.
4.193%
89.52
80% Succ.
4.380%
95.22
95% Succ.
4.019%
92.80
90% Succ.
4.427%
89.21
4.50 %
100.00
98.23
95% Succ.
4.960%
90.73
90% Succ.
4.532%
84.05
80% Succ.
4.758%
78.20
88.98
80% Succ.
4.995%
88.92
83.40
80% Succ.
4.759%
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.426%
93.96
90% Succ.
5.267%
83.83
80% Succ.
5.261%
75.73
67.55
79.83
83.93
75.93
5.50 %
99.91
86.16
77.29
69.21
59.07
71.93
80.61
80% Succ.
5.556%
70.54
6.00 %
99.72
80.75
80% Succ.
6.079%
72.41
63.11
52.91
50% Succ.
6.154%
63.20
75.62
63.90
6.50 %
99.63
75.86
68.01
57.28
45.76
54.05
50% Succ.
6.716%
66.20
51.45
50% Succ.
6.635%
7.00 %
98.89
72.01
63.61
50.21
50% Succ.
7.012%
38.94
46.15
59.00
42.32
7.50 %
97.78
68.89
56.96
50% Succ.
7.990%
43.97
32.61
39.92
50.97
50% Succ.
7.661%
33.61
8.00 %
95.74
62.43
49.94
37.73
28.45
34.10
44.32
24.90
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.682%
100.00
5.00 %
100.00
98.34
95% Succ.
5.405%
100.00
5.50 %
100.00
94.46
100.00
6.00 %
100.00
91.14
90% Succ.
6.236%
100.00
6.50 %
100.00
88.64
100.00
100% Succ.
6.865%
7.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.497%
85.32
99.59
95% Succ.
7.415%
7.50 %
99.58
83.38
80% Succ.
7.975%
92.95
90% Succ.
7.698%
8.00 %
98.54
79.22
84.23
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Related Pages

For the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
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