Portfolios and Withdrawal Simulations

Choose your retirement portfolio

Have you ever thought of how much you can withdraw monthly/yearly from your portfolio, during your retirement?

At first, figure out how long your retirement might be. Now choose:
  • Do you want to preserve your initial capital, adjusted for inflation? Look at the Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR)
  • You don't care about eating away all your invested capital at the end of your retirement? Then look at the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR)
Each N-years timeframe has been considered to calculate withdrawal rates.
For instance, with a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm is covering each 20 year timeframe starting from the beginning, and continuing month after month.

Swipe left to see all data
Weighting %
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)
Portfolio Stocks▾ Bonds Comm 20
Years 		30
Years 		50
Years 		70
Years 		20
Years 		30
Years 		50
Years 		70
Years
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 100 0 0
0.00
1.06
2.39
2.58
3.33
2.89
2.69
2.61
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 90 10 0
0.00
1.32
2.67
2.88
3.86
3.31
3.03
2.93
Warren Buffett Portfolio 90 10 0
0.00
1.79
2.53
2.79
3.79
3.24
2.96
2.84
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 80 20 0
0.00
1.51
2.90
3.14
4.42
3.73
3.35
3.20
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 70 30 0
0.00
1.64
2.95
3.19
4.67
3.96
3.45
3.31
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60 40 0
0.00
1.73
2.81
3.04
4.75
4.00
3.37
3.19
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 50 50 0
0.00
1.78
2.62
2.85
4.81
3.95
3.27
3.06
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 40 60 0
0.00
1.54
2.40
2.57
4.82
3.85
3.11
2.87
Golden Butterfly 40 40 20
0.00
0.90
2.16
2.36
4.54
3.59
2.90
2.65
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 30 70 0
0.00
1.13
1.94
2.17
4.72
3.73
2.76
2.51
Desert Portfolio 30 60 10
0.00
0.67
1.91
2.10
4.56
3.57
2.74
2.49
All Weather Portfolio 30 55 15
0.00
0.36
1.82
1.92
4.50
3.45
2.62
2.39
Permanent Portfolio 25 50 25
0.00
0.33
1.53
1.63
4.39
3.30
2.35
2.09
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 20 80 0
0.00
0.67
1.27
1.66
4.60
3.44
2.34
2.10
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 10 90 0
0.00
0.00
0.47
1.03
4.15
2.93
1.90
1.67
Short Term Treasury 0 100 0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.35
3.46
2.34
1.49
1.25
10-year Treasury 0 100 0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.58
2.37
1.40
1.22
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 0 100 0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.26
3.66
2.46
1.51
1.31
Gold 0 0 100
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.73
1.06
1.11
0.71
Legend:
Safe Withdrawal Rate
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
70 Years
50 Years
30 Years
20 Years
Each N-years timeframe has been considered to calculate withdrawal rates.
For instance, with a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm is covering each 20 year timeframe starting from the beginning, and continuing month after month.

Swipe left to see all data
Weighting %
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)
Portfolio Stocks▾ Bonds Comm 20
Years 		30
Years 		50
Years 		70
Years 		20
Years 		30
Years 		50
Years 		70
Years
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 100 0 0
0.20
2.34
2.39
2.58
3.33
2.89
2.69
2.61
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 90 10 0
0.62
2.65
2.67
2.88
3.86
3.31
3.03
2.93
Warren Buffett Portfolio 90 10 0
0.32
2.58
2.53
2.79
3.79
3.24
2.96
2.84
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 80 20 0
1.05
2.93
2.90
3.14
4.42
3.73
3.35
3.20
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 70 30 0
0.87
2.91
3.07
3.35
4.67
3.96
3.52
3.43
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60 40 0
0.65
2.79
3.16
3.40
4.75
4.00
3.52
3.53
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 50 50 0
0.37
2.65
2.87
3.05
4.81
4.02
3.44
3.22
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 40 60 0
0.00
2.12
2.42
2.66
4.85
3.96
3.11
2.87
Golden Butterfly 40 40 20
1.76
2.34
2.85
2.96
5.22
4.10
3.29
3.10
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 30 70 0
0.00
1.40
1.94
2.23
4.84
3.86
2.76
2.51
Desert Portfolio 30 60 10
0.76
1.38
1.97
2.22
5.00
3.76
2.74
2.49
All Weather Portfolio 30 55 15
0.00
1.00
1.82
2.15
4.93
3.63
2.62
2.39
Permanent Portfolio 25 50 25
0.04
0.46
1.53
1.75
4.59
3.30
2.35
2.09
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 20 80 0
0.00
0.67
1.27
1.74
4.65
3.44
2.34
2.10
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 10 90 0
0.00
0.00
0.47
1.25
4.15
2.93
1.90
1.67
Short Term Treasury 0 100 0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.65
3.46
2.34
1.49
1.25
10-year Treasury 0 100 0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.81
3.58
2.37
1.40
1.22
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 0 100 0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.80
3.66
2.46
1.51
1.31
Gold 0 0 100
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.73
1.06
1.28
0.99
Legend:
Safe Withdrawal Rate
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
70 Years
50 Years
30 Years
20 Years
Each N-years timeframe has been considered to calculate withdrawal rates.
For instance, with a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm is covering each 20 year timeframe starting from the beginning, and continuing month after month.

Swipe left to see all data
Weighting %
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)
Portfolio Stocks▾ Bonds Comm 20
Years 		30
Years 		20
Years 		30
Years
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 100 0 0
2.01
3.66
4.68
4.70
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 90 10 0
2.17
3.68
4.93
4.74
Warren Buffett Portfolio 90 10 0
1.81
3.46
4.64
4.47
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 80 20 0
2.32
3.68
5.17
4.76
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 70 30 0
2.45
3.66
5.41
4.77
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60 40 0
2.57
3.62
5.46
4.76
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 50 50 0
2.66
3.55
5.48
4.73
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 40 60 0
2.74
3.46
5.47
4.68
Golden Butterfly 40 40 20
4.55
4.79
7.32
6.09
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 30 70 0
2.75
3.34
5.45
4.61
Desert Portfolio 30 60 10
3.22
3.55
5.91
4.93
All Weather Portfolio 30 55 15
3.51
3.81
5.89
5.00
Permanent Portfolio 25 50 25
3.03
3.09
6.11
4.85
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 20 80 0
2.14
3.19
5.41
4.52
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 10 90 0
1.33
2.76
5.35
4.42
Short Term Treasury 0 100 0
0.00
0.60
4.94
4.28
10-year Treasury 0 100 0
0.93
2.74
4.88
4.03
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 0 100 0
0.45
2.07
5.28
4.29
Gold 0 0 100
0.00
0.00
1.73
1.06
Legend:
Safe Withdrawal Rate
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
70 Years
50 Years
30 Years
20 Years
PWRs and SWRs are calculated over timeframes ending at February 2023.
For instance, with the 20 years timeframe, the algorithm is calculating withdrawal rates from March 2003 to February 2023.

Swipe left to see all data
Weighting %
PWR (%) - Ending at Feb 2023
SWR (%) - Ending at Feb 2023
Portfolio Stocks▾ Bonds Comm 20
Years 		30
Years 		50
Years 		70
Years 		20
Years 		30
Years 		50
Years 		70
Years
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 100 0 0
7.71
7.24
4.04
8.55
9.93
8.35
4.25
8.63
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 90 10 0
7.15
6.89
4.03
7.75
9.56
8.09
4.27
7.84
Warren Buffett Portfolio 90 10 0
6.43
6.73
3.76
7.43
8.86
7.98
4.01
7.53
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 80 20 0
6.55
6.50
3.99
6.96
9.18
7.81
4.26
7.07
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 70 30 0
5.92
6.07
3.92
6.21
8.79
7.52
4.24
6.34
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60 40 0
5.26
5.61
3.82
5.49
8.39
7.21
4.19
5.64
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 50 50 0
4.56
5.12
3.68
4.79
7.98
6.89
4.12
4.99
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 40 60 0
3.82
4.59
3.51
4.13
7.57
6.56
4.03
4.37
Golden Butterfly 40 40 20
5.88
5.33
5.03
5.05
9.24
6.93
5.44
5.20
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 30 70 0
3.05
4.02
3.30
3.49
7.16
6.22
3.92
3.80
Desert Portfolio 30 60 10
3.66
4.20
3.57
3.65
7.64
6.26
4.18
3.93
All Weather Portfolio 30 55 15
4.25
4.88
3.87
3.46
8.13
6.78
4.36
3.69
Permanent Portfolio 25 50 25
4.50
3.96
3.48
3.23
8.33
5.94
4.17
3.55
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 20 80 0
2.23
3.42
3.04
2.88
6.74
5.87
3.78
3.27
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 10 90 0
1.36
2.76
2.73
2.30
6.33
5.52
3.62
2.78
Short Term Treasury 0 100 0
0.00
0.60
1.64
1.62
4.99
4.31
3.18
2.50
10-year Treasury 0 100 0
0.96
2.74
2.47
1.71
6.37
5.61
3.36
2.23
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 0 100 0
0.45
2.07
2.36
1.72
5.92
5.16
3.44
2.34
Gold 0 0 100
7.23
2.62
2.03
1.71
10.89
4.40
3.13
2.25
▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
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