US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio: how to retire safely

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1871 - March 2025
Last update as of 31 March 2025
Withdrawal: Monthly
Rebalancing: at each withdrawal
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
Results
January 1871 - March 2025
30 Years Stats
2.929%
Safe Withdrawal Rate
62.47%
4% Rule - Success
50 Years Stats
1.903%
Safe Withdrawal Rate
21.09%
4% Rule - Success

The US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and is allocated for 10% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - Mar 2025, the portfolio granted a 5.07% annualized return, with a -16.14% maximum drawdown.

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.929% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 62.47% of cases, and for 50 years in the 21.09% of cases .

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio

The US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio contains 10% Stocks, 90% Bonds.

Weight Asset Class Category
10.00 % Total US Stock Market Stocks
90.00 % Total US Bond Market Fixed Income

Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2025), the portfolio has returned 5% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.

5.685% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at March 2025: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Mar 2025
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Apr 2015
 31 Mar 2025 0.000 10.068 2.51
[ -0.55 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
20 Years 1 Apr 2005
 31 Mar 2025 1.378 6.227 3.84
[ 1.26 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
30 Years 1 Apr 1995
 31 Mar 2025 2.909 5.685 5.00
[ 2.42 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
40 Years 1 Apr 1985
 31 Mar 2025 4.557 6.164 6.30
[ 3.42 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
50 Years 1 Apr 1975
 31 Mar 2025 3.411 4.315 6.96
[ 3.17 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
60 Years 1 Apr 1965
 31 Mar 2025 2.177 2.821 6.54
[ 2.49 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
70 Years 1 Apr 1955
 31 Mar 2025 2.151 2.635 6.15
[ 2.45 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
80 Years 1 Apr 1945
 31 Mar 2025 1.496 1.874 5.77
[ 2.02 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2025

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2025)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?

▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2025
Period: Apr 1925 - Mar 2025
Period: Apr 1975 - Mar 2025
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jun 1897 		0.000
Feb 1910 		2.054
May 1911 		5.155
May 1911 		7.618
Mar 1916 		8.563 9.121 10.037 11.286
20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jul 1897 		0.000
Jun 1900 		1.689
Jul 1900 		3.002
Aug 1939 		4.145
Jan 1941 		4.690 4.821 5.069 6.264
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1940 		0.620
May 1940 		1.413
May 1940 		2.190
Nov 1940 		2.929
Jan 1941 		3.306 3.454 3.756 4.305
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Nov 1938 		0.071
Sep 1941 		0.823
Sep 1941 		1.553
Aug 1941 		2.255
Jan 1941 		2.528 2.773 3.161 3.523
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.473
Jun 1934 		0.921
Jun 1934 		1.353
Jun 1939 		1.636
Jun 1939 		1.903
Jan 1941 		2.118 2.240 2.770 3.085
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.175
Aug 1939 		1.321
Aug 1939 		1.466
Aug 1939 		1.612
Aug 1939 		1.758
Aug 1939 		1.923 2.055 2.475 2.831
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.026
May 1911 		1.312
May 1911 		1.462
Aug 1939 		1.568
Aug 1939 		1.674
Aug 1939 		1.807 1.931 2.231 2.582
80 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.140
May 1901 		1.366
May 1901 		1.461
Aug 1939 		1.538
Aug 1939 		1.616
Aug 1939 		1.730 1.859 2.062 2.420
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Sep 1936 		0.000
Jun 1941 		2.504
Oct 1971 		5.641
Aug 1941 		8.103
Feb 1946 		8.797 9.227 9.936 11.177
20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1933 		0.315
Oct 1961 		1.768
Aug 1939 		3.002
Aug 1939 		4.145
Jan 1941 		4.503 4.735 4.985 6.080
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1940 		0.620
May 1940 		1.413
May 1940 		2.190
Nov 1940 		2.929
Jan 1941 		3.138 3.330 3.680 4.143
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Nov 1938 		0.071
Sep 1941 		0.823
Sep 1941 		1.553
Aug 1941 		2.255
Jan 1941 		2.397 2.537 2.797 3.380
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.473
Jun 1934 		0.921
Jun 1934 		1.353
Jun 1939 		1.636
Jun 1939 		1.903
Jan 1941 		1.988 2.112 2.233 3.025
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.175
Aug 1939 		1.321
Aug 1939 		1.466
Aug 1939 		1.612
Aug 1939 		1.758
Aug 1939 		1.817 1.900 2.027 2.745
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.250
Aug 1939 		1.356
Aug 1939 		1.462
Aug 1939 		1.568
Aug 1939 		1.674
Aug 1939 		1.721 1.774 1.878 2.376
80 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.306
Aug 1939 		1.384
Aug 1939 		1.461
Aug 1939 		1.538
Aug 1939 		1.616
Aug 1939 		1.652 1.671 1.740 1.915
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jul 2012 		1.927
Nov 2013 		4.611
Feb 2015 		7.293
Feb 2015 		9.393
Dec 1976 		10.037 10.698 11.099 11.839
20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.933
Nov 2003 		2.238
Nov 2003 		3.543
Nov 2003 		4.810
Apr 2004 		6.035
Apr 2004 		6.209 6.341 6.494 7.449
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.418
Nov 1993 		3.153
Nov 1993 		3.888
Nov 1993 		4.623
Nov 1993 		5.123
Dec 1976 		5.352 5.424 5.647 6.177
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2025

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2025
Period: Apr 1925 - Mar 2025
Period: Apr 1975 - Mar 2025
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.255%
97.44
95% Succ.
2.118%
92.40
90% Succ.
2.055%
84.78
80% Succ.
2.231%
82.17
80% Succ.
2.062%
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.929%
95.55
95% Succ.
2.528%
86.74
80% Succ.
2.770%
78.53
50% Succ.
2.831%
55.24
50% Succ.
2.582%
48.21
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
98.99
95% Succ.
3.306%
85.20
80% Succ.
3.161%
59.90
50% Succ.
3.085%
37.99
32.02
30.83
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
89.21
80% Succ.
3.756%
51.17
50% Succ.
3.523%
32.99
21.82
19.86
18.72
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.145%
62.47
50% Succ.
4.305%
37.46
21.09
14.05
12.35
10.76
4.50 %
100.00
96.90
95% Succ.
4.690%
47.92
29.59
11.58
8.57
8.00
7.85
5.00 %
100.00
81.76
80% Succ.
5.069%
42.56
19.53
7.59
6.45
5.53
5.49
5.50 %
100.00
66.32
33.38
14.07
5.51
4.42
3.85
3.36
6.00 %
100.00
54.59
50% Succ.
6.264%
25.07
11.30
3.83
2.65
1.78
0.45
6.50 %
100.00
45.47
14.68
7.65
2.48
0.44
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
100.00
38.90
11.19
4.88
0.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.618%
30.27
7.98
2.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
98.85
23.14
5.23
0.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.255%
94.68
90% Succ.
2.112%
82.12
80% Succ.
2.027%
57.34
50% Succ.
2.376%
38.59
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.929%
91.54
90% Succ.
2.537%
72.38
62.37
50% Succ.
2.745%
42.94
28.22
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
98.22
95% Succ.
3.138%
76.01
50% Succ.
3.380%
54.74
50% Succ.
3.025%
16.01
6.37
6.64
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
84.07
80% Succ.
3.680%
42.72
16.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.145%
58.03
50% Succ.
4.143%
29.82
3.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
100.00
95.01
95% Succ.
4.503%
42.93
21.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
100.00
79.50
37.57
12.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
100.00
67.01
28.18
10.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
100.00
52.76
50% Succ.
6.080%
18.43
9.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
100.00
39.23
9.39
5.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
100.00
32.26
7.97
3.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
100.00
25.08
4.76
1.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
100.00
16.02
2.85
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
5.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
5.123%
5.50 %
100.00
100.00
84.65
80% Succ.
5.647%
6.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
6.035%
60.17
50% Succ.
6.177%
6.50 %
100.00
79.22
32.78
7.00 %
100.00
64.54
50% Succ.
7.449%
27.80
7.50 %
100.00
48.75
16.60
8.00 %
100.00
30.47
9.96
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2025

Related Pages

For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com