US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 30 April 2023

The US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio invests in 2 asset classes and can be suitable for a retirement plan.

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

Key Points

The US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio is allocated for 10% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - Apr 2023, the portfolio granted a 5.08% annualized return, with a -16.14% maximum drawdown.

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.929% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 61.88% of cases, and for 50 years in the 20.42% of cases

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio

The US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio contains 10% Stocks, 90% Bonds.

Weight Asset Class Category
10.00 % Total US Stock Market Stocks
90.00 % Total US Bond Market Fixed Income

Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 4.97% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.

5.513% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2023: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 May 2003
 30 Apr 2023 1.373 6.221 3.82
[ 1.25 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
30 Years 1 May 1993
 30 Apr 2023 2.804 5.513 4.97
[ 2.40 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
40 Years 1 May 1983
 30 Apr 2023 4.651 6.163 6.53
[ 3.57 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
50 Years 1 May 1973
 30 Apr 2023 2.791 3.673 6.97
[ 2.89 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
60 Years 1 May 1963
 30 Apr 2023 2.215 2.850 6.53
[ 2.53 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
70 Years 1 May 1953
 30 Apr 2023 2.346 2.827 6.19
[ 2.56 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?

▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jul 1897 		0.000
Jun 1900 		1.689
Jul 1900 		3.002
Aug 1939 		4.145
Jan 1941 		4.689 4.817 5.060 6.326
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1940 		0.620
May 1940 		1.413
May 1940 		2.190
Nov 1940 		2.929
Jan 1941 		3.304 3.450 3.754 4.264
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Nov 1938 		0.071
Sep 1941 		0.823
Sep 1941 		1.553
Aug 1941 		2.255
Jan 1941 		2.524 2.707 3.150 3.502
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.473
Jun 1934 		0.921
Jun 1934 		1.353
Jun 1939 		1.636
Jun 1939 		1.903
Jan 1941 		2.116 2.233 2.761 3.072
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.175
Aug 1939 		1.321
Aug 1939 		1.466
Aug 1939 		1.612
Aug 1939 		1.758
Aug 1939 		1.920 2.051 2.461 2.823
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.026
May 1911 		1.312
May 1911 		1.462
Aug 1939 		1.568
Aug 1939 		1.674
Aug 1939 		1.806 1.929 2.218 2.566
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1933 		0.315
Oct 1961 		1.768
Aug 1939 		3.002
Aug 1939 		4.145
Jan 1941 		4.503 4.735 4.985 6.105
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1940 		0.620
May 1940 		1.413
May 1940 		2.190
Nov 1940 		2.929
Jan 1941 		3.138 3.330 3.680 4.143
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Nov 1938 		0.071
Sep 1941 		0.823
Sep 1941 		1.553
Aug 1941 		2.255
Jan 1941 		2.397 2.537 2.797 3.380
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.473
Jun 1934 		0.921
Jun 1934 		1.353
Jun 1939 		1.636
Jun 1939 		1.903
Jan 1941 		1.988 2.112 2.233 3.025
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.175
Aug 1939 		1.321
Aug 1939 		1.466
Aug 1939 		1.612
Aug 1939 		1.758
Aug 1939 		1.817 1.900 2.027 2.745
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.250
Aug 1939 		1.356
Aug 1939 		1.462
Aug 1939 		1.568
Aug 1939 		1.674
Aug 1939 		1.721 1.774 1.878 2.376
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.327
Nov 2002 		2.575
Jan 2003 		3.797
May 2003 		4.767
May 1973 		5.430
May 1973 		6.279 6.384 6.500 7.449
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.748
Mar 1993 		3.441
Mar 1993 		3.791
May 1973 		4.136
May 1973 		4.481
May 1973 		5.123 5.321 5.493 6.177
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.255%
97.40
95% Succ.
2.116%
92.25
90% Succ.
2.051%
84.43
80% Succ.
2.218%
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.929%
95.48
95% Succ.
2.524%
86.49
80% Succ.
2.761%
78.09
50% Succ.
2.823%
54.20
50% Succ.
2.566%
3.00 %
100.00
98.98
95% Succ.
3.304%
84.95
80% Succ.
3.150%
59.15
50% Succ.
3.072%
38.77
32.76
3.50 %
100.00
89.04
80% Succ.
3.754%
50.33
50% Succ.
3.502%
31.73
22.27
20.32
4.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.145%
61.88
50% Succ.
4.264%
36.40
20.42
14.34
12.64
4.50 %
96.85
95% Succ.
4.689%
47.11
28.39
11.80
8.75
8.19
5.00 %
81.50
80% Succ.
5.060%
41.66
18.16
7.73
6.58
5.66
5.50 %
65.83
32.95
12.60
5.61
4.51
3.94
6.00 %
53.93
50% Succ.
6.326%
25.46
9.79
3.91
2.71
1.82
6.50 %
46.13
14.91
7.04
2.52
0.45
0.00
7.00 %
39.46
11.37
4.97
0.57
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
30.71
8.10
2.74
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
23.47
5.31
0.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.255%
94.68
90% Succ.
2.112%
82.12
80% Succ.
2.027%
57.34
50% Succ.
2.376%
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.929%
91.54
90% Succ.
2.537%
72.38
62.37
50% Succ.
2.745%
42.94
3.00 %
100.00
98.22
95% Succ.
3.138%
76.01
50% Succ.
3.380%
54.74
50% Succ.
3.025%
20.79
12.74
3.50 %
100.00
84.07
80% Succ.
3.680%
42.72
16.81
2.91
0.00
4.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.145%
58.03
50% Succ.
4.143%
29.82
4.99
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
95.01
95% Succ.
4.503%
42.93
21.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
79.50
37.57
9.99
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
67.01
29.25
7.63
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
52.76
50% Succ.
6.105%
20.21
5.96
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
41.62
9.39
4.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
34.65
7.97
3.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
27.47
4.76
1.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
18.42
2.85
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.481%
4.50 %
100.00
99.59
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.430%
95.02
95% Succ.
5.123%
5.50 %
99.45
78.84
6.00 %
96.95
95% Succ.
6.279%
60.17
50% Succ.
6.177%
6.50 %
80.06
80% Succ.
6.500%
32.78
7.00 %
64.54
50% Succ.
7.449%
27.80
7.50 %
48.75
16.60
8.00 %
30.47
9.96
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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