US Small Cap: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Small Cap asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.118% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

Considering the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.932%.

The last 30 years of the US Small Cap asset class

Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 10.37% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -54.13%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 May 1993
30 Apr 2023 8.847 9.932 10.37
[ 7.66 ]
-54.13
Jun 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Small Cap page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Small Cap asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jun 1902
0.620
Jun 1902
1.970
Jun 1902
3.044
Sep 1929
3.118
Sep 1929
4.503
95% Succ.
4.906
90% Succ.
6.159
80% Succ.
8.827
50% Succ.
Median 8.118
8.295
8.461
8.664
8.827
Average 8.341
8.555
8.769
8.984
9.199
Maximum
Best Period (from)
26.624
Jul 1932
26.723
Jul 1932
26.821
Jul 1932
26.920
Jul 1932
27.018
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%)
Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
3.181
3.828
4.859
8.118
75% 0.620
3.453
4.138
5.184
8.295
50% 1.970
3.758
4.403
5.523
8.461
25% 3.044
4.133
4.646
5.848
8.664
0% 3.118
4.503
4.906
6.159
8.827
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from)
2.822
Sep 1929
2.896
Sep 1929
2.970
Sep 1929
3.044
Sep 1929
3.118
Sep 1929
5.427
95% Succ.
6.590
90% Succ.
8.009
80% Succ.
10.615
50% Succ.
Median 9.996
10.146
10.316
10.447
10.615
Average 10.319
10.445
10.570
10.695
10.820
Maximum
Best Period (from)
26.624
Jul 1932
26.723
Jul 1932
26.821
Jul 1932
26.920
Jul 1932
27.018
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%)
Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.822
5.068
6.242
7.610
9.996
75% 2.896
5.158
6.314
7.688
10.146
50% 2.970
5.247
6.408
7.781
10.316
25% 3.044
5.337
6.507
7.894
10.447
0% 3.118
5.427
6.590
8.009
10.615
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Small Cap asset class, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved
0%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.93
99.73
98.91
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.80
99.12
98.71
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.118%
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.66
98.23
95.71
3.50 %
99.80
0.20
99.80
99.59
97.62
94.62
92.24
4.00 %
99.18
0.82
99.18
96.39
93.26
91.49
88.56
4.50 %
95.03
95% Succ.
4.503%
4.97
95.03
91.22
89.24
87.13
83.93
5.00 %
88.90
11.10
88.90
87.00
85.23
82.37
78.35
5.50 %
85.43
14.57
85.43
83.73
80.19
75.97
72.23
6.00 %
81.21
80% Succ.
6.159%
18.79
81.21
78.42
74.54
70.73
68.82
6.50 %
76.86
23.14
76.86
72.77
68.62
66.64
64.87
7.00 %
70.86
29.14
70.86
66.92
64.47
62.76
60.72
7.50 %
63.58
36.42
63.58
61.54
59.50
57.79
56.30
8.00 %
58.34
41.66
58.34
56.50
54.39
52.83
51.53
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved
0%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.118%
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.88
99.88
99.76
3.50 %
99.64
0.36
99.64
99.52
99.41
99.05
98.93
4.00 %
98.69
1.31
98.69
98.69
98.69
98.45
97.98
4.50 %
97.50
2.50
97.50
97.27
97.03
96.79
96.55
5.00 %
96.31
95% Succ.
5.427%
3.69
96.31
95.96
95.60
95.48
95.12
5.50 %
94.53
5.47
94.53
94.53
93.70
93.34
92.98
6.00 %
92.51
7.49
92.51
92.39
92.15
91.68
91.20
6.50 %
90.49
90% Succ.
6.590%
9.51
90.49
90.01
89.42
88.94
88.23
7.00 %
87.51
12.49
87.51
87.28
86.68
86.09
84.90
7.50 %
83.83
16.17
83.83
83.23
82.52
81.81
81.09
8.00 %
80.02
19.98
80.02
79.07
78.12
76.46
75.27
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Small Cap Asset Class

For the US Small Cap Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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