Last Update: 31 October 2024
Gold is an asset class belonging to Commodities category.
You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.062% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30-year (last update: October 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.073%.
In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
Gold asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: October 2024), the asset class has returned 6.48% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -42.91%.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at October 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Nov 2014 |
31 Oct 2024 | 4.630 | 11.316 |
8.45 [ 5.40 ] |
-18.08 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
| 20 Years |
1 Nov 2004 |
31 Oct 2024 | 7.492 | 10.392 |
9.30 [ 6.59 ] |
-42.91 Sep 2011 - Dec 2015 |
| 30 Years |
1 Nov 1994 |
31 Oct 2024 | 2.763 | 4.073 |
6.48 [ 3.86 ] |
-42.91 Sep 2011 - Dec 2015 |
| 40 Years |
1 Nov 1984 |
31 Oct 2024 | 1.469 | 2.434 |
5.19 [ 2.34 ] |
-48.26 Dec 1987 - Aug 1999 |
| 50 Years |
1 Nov 1974 |
31 Oct 2024 | 1.146 | 1.940 |
5.58 [ 1.80 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
| 60 Years |
1 Nov 1964 |
31 Oct 2024 | 3.136 | 3.655 |
7.37 [ 3.31 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
| 70 Years |
1 Nov 1954 |
31 Oct 2024 | 1.963 | 2.350 |
6.29 [ 2.61 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
| 80 Years |
1 Nov 1944 |
31 Oct 2024 | 0.945 | 1.271 |
5.45 [ 1.72 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold asset class?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Oct 2024).
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1879 |
0.000 Jun 1896 |
0.000 Jun 1910 |
1.266 Jul 1980 |
4.590 Feb 1980 |
6.906 | 7.484 | 8.103 | 9.412 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1884 |
0.000 May 1890 |
0.000 Jun 1897 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
3.109 | 3.256 | 3.459 | 4.965 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.000 May 1886 |
0.000 Feb 1889 |
0.539 Jul 1897 |
1.062 Feb 1980 |
1.902 | 2.036 | 2.136 | 3.173 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1875 |
0.000 Sep 1877 |
0.000 Jan 1879 |
0.579 Feb 1980 |
0.912 Feb 1980 |
1.424 | 1.497 | 1.698 | 2.365 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.630 Sep 1896 |
1.107 Jul 1897 |
1.242 | 1.329 | 1.378 | 1.820 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 May 1892 |
0.306 Jul 1897 |
0.887 Jul 1897 |
0.993 | 1.059 | 1.138 | 1.425 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1875 |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.000 Oct 1885 |
0.162 Jul 1897 |
0.710 Jul 1897 |
0.781 | 0.851 | 0.943 | 1.167 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jul 1873 |
0.000 Jul 1878 |
0.203 Mar 1890 |
0.611 Jul 1897 |
0.657 | 0.737 | 0.812 | 1.004 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1936 |
0.000 Jan 1980 |
1.266 Jul 1980 |
4.590 Feb 1980 |
7.240 | 7.550 | 8.000 | 9.357 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Feb 1934 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
2.924 | 3.247 | 3.494 | 5.014 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1929 |
0.000 Nov 1932 |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.602 Aug 1940 |
1.062 Feb 1980 |
1.898 | 2.034 | 2.140 | 3.384 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1924 |
0.000 Jul 1930 |
0.247 Feb 1980 |
0.579 Feb 1980 |
0.912 Feb 1980 |
1.464 | 1.498 | 1.765 | 2.852 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1947 |
0.339 Sep 1949 |
0.699 Mar 1935 |
1.009 Mar 1935 |
1.277 Feb 1934 |
1.331 | 1.370 | 1.635 | 2.550 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Jan 1938 |
0.175 Apr 1941 |
0.683 Apr 1941 |
1.149 Apr 1934 |
1.183 | 1.200 | 1.242 | 2.074 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Mar 1933 |
0.302 Apr 1933 |
0.661 Apr 1933 |
0.992 May 1934 |
1.020 | 1.037 | 1.067 | 1.567 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.395 Jan 1936 |
0.539 Jan 1936 |
0.682 Dec 1934 |
0.808 Feb 1934 |
0.928 Feb 1934 |
0.949 | 0.965 | 0.995 | 1.220 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1974 |
0.000 Aug 1979 |
0.000 Jan 1980 |
1.266 Jul 1980 |
4.590 Feb 1980 |
6.635 | 7.189 | 7.528 | 9.621 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1974 |
0.000 Dec 1974 |
0.000 Nov 1978 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
2.472 | 2.835 | 3.218 | 4.941 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1974 |
0.000 Nov 1974 |
0.146 Feb 1980 |
0.604 Feb 1980 |
1.062 Feb 1980 |
1.439 | 1.913 | 2.274 | 2.893 | ||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
99.44
|
91.39
|
90% Succ. 2.036% |
57.79
|
50% Succ. 2.365% |
43.79
|
28.13
|
15.29
|
1.24
|
||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
98.82
|
67.11
|
45.79
|
27.11
|
10.74
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
96.27
|
95% Succ. 3.109% |
53.53
|
50% Succ. 3.173% |
34.02
|
14.84
|
4.97
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
78.41
|
43.71
|
16.17
|
10.67
|
1.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
61.85
|
33.02
|
10.68
|
7.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
56.38
|
50% Succ. 4.965% |
23.13
|
6.73
|
4.17
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 5.00 % |
99.54
|
49.22
|
10.63
|
3.80
|
2.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 5.50 % |
99.48
|
39.70
|
8.47
|
2.27
|
2.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.00 % |
99.31
|
33.48
|
6.25
|
1.90
|
0.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
97.92
|
95% Succ. 6.906% |
26.94
|
4.98
|
1.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 7.00 % |
94.50
|
90% Succ. 7.484% |
20.78
|
3.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
89.92
|
17.24
|
2.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 8.00 % |
82.17
|
13.19
|
1.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
99.06
|
90.73
|
90% Succ. 2.034% |
70.32
|
68.39
|
52.18
|
50% Succ. 2.074% |
30.19
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
98.02
|
95% Succ. 2.924% |
69.44
|
56.59
|
50% Succ. 2.852% |
52.58
|
50% Succ. 2.550% |
24.53
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
94.28
|
90% Succ. 3.247% |
57.67
|
50% Succ. 3.384% |
47.16
|
30.78
|
11.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
79.71
|
49.23
|
28.29
|
22.13
|
2.91
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
63.27
|
38.53
|
20.25
|
15.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
57.54
|
30.44
|
12.76
|
8.65
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 5.00 % |
99.26
|
50.47
|
50% Succ. 5.014% |
17.24
|
7.21
|
5.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 5.50 % |
99.17
|
43.18
|
14.74
|
4.30
|
4.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.00 % |
98.89
|
39.13
|
11.06
|
3.61
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
98.15
|
36.32
|
8.80
|
2.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
96.67
|
95% Succ. 7.240% |
32.15
|
5.95
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
91.21
|
90% Succ. 7.550% |
28.62
|
3.57
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
79.93
|
22.06
|
3.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
97.51
|
95% Succ. 2.472% |
87.55
|
80% Succ. 2.274% |
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
94.74
|
90% Succ. 2.835% |
68.05
|
50% Succ. 2.893% |
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
84.76
|
80% Succ. 3.218% |
45.23
|
||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
75.90
|
27.39
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
63.71
|
9.96
|
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
57.06
|
50% Succ. 4.941% |
0.41
|
|
| 5.00 % |
98.34
|
48.75
|
0.00
|
|||
| 5.50 % |
98.13
|
36.57
|
0.00
|
|||
| 6.00 % |
97.51
|
33.52
|
0.00
|
|||
| 6.50 % |
95.84
|
95% Succ. 6.635% |
29.92
|
0.00
|
||
| 7.00 % |
92.52
|
90% Succ. 7.189% |
25.76
|
0.00
|
||
| 7.50 % |
81.29
|
80% Succ. 7.528% |
24.10
|
0.00
|
||
| 8.00 % |
65.70
|
21.88
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
Gold Asset Class
For the Gold Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
