Last Update: 31 March 2024
US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries is an asset class belonging to Fixed Income category.
You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.453% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30-year (last update: March 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.327%.
In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2024), the asset class has returned 4.26% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -13.59%.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at March 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Apr 2014 |
31 Mar 2024 | 0.000 | 9.986 |
1.11 [ -1.68 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
| 20 Years |
1 Apr 2004 |
31 Mar 2024 | 0.012 | 5.662 |
2.60 [ 0.01 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
| 30 Years |
1 Apr 1994 |
31 Mar 2024 | 2.095 | 5.327 |
4.26 [ 1.68 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
| 40 Years |
1 Apr 1984 |
31 Mar 2024 | 4.408 | 6.295 |
5.97 [ 3.06 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
| 50 Years |
1 Apr 1974 |
31 Mar 2024 | 2.698 | 3.813 |
6.41 [ 2.49 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
| 60 Years |
1 Apr 1964 |
31 Mar 2024 | 1.855 | 2.670 |
6.01 [ 2.00 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
| 70 Years |
1 Apr 1954 |
31 Mar 2024 | 1.622 | 2.251 |
5.47 [ 1.84 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
| 80 Years |
1 Apr 1944 |
31 Mar 2024 | 0.974 | 1.496 |
5.05 [ 1.32 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries asset class?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Mar 2024).
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1896 |
0.000 Jan 1910 |
1.893 May 1941 |
4.920 May 1941 |
7.488 Sep 1915 |
8.357 | 8.722 | 9.693 | 10.922 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1897 |
0.000 Jan 1899 |
0.933 Aug 1939 |
2.364 Aug 1939 |
3.652 Feb 1941 |
4.145 | 4.597 | 4.817 | 5.841 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1890 |
0.000 Jun 1939 |
0.739 May 1940 |
1.626 Nov 1940 |
2.453 Feb 1941 |
2.801 | 3.041 | 3.455 | 4.077 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1938 |
0.145 Sep 1941 |
0.998 Aug 1941 |
1.826 Feb 1941 |
2.059 | 2.235 | 2.773 | 3.257 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1931 |
0.210 Jun 1934 |
0.733 Jun 1934 |
1.189 Jun 1939 |
1.506 Feb 1941 |
1.709 | 1.782 | 2.363 | 2.824 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.608 Oct 1915 |
0.839 Aug 1939 |
1.020 Aug 1939 |
1.201 Aug 1939 |
1.377 Feb 1941 |
1.527 | 1.606 | 2.070 | 2.457 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.234 Aug 1911 |
0.635 May 1911 |
1.028 May 1911 |
1.188 Aug 1939 |
1.304 Feb 1941 |
1.428 | 1.491 | 1.823 | 2.145 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.428 May 1901 |
0.751 May 1901 |
1.048 Jun 1939 |
1.150 Jun 1939 |
1.251 Feb 1941 |
1.354 | 1.408 | 1.687 | 1.999 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1936 |
0.000 Jul 1938 |
1.893 May 1941 |
4.920 May 1941 |
7.798 Feb 1946 |
8.495 | 8.794 | 9.630 | 10.670 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Sep 1938 |
0.933 Aug 1939 |
2.364 Aug 1939 |
3.652 Feb 1941 |
4.015 | 4.234 | 4.730 | 5.612 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Oct 1932 |
0.000 Jun 1939 |
0.739 May 1940 |
1.626 Nov 1940 |
2.453 Feb 1941 |
2.688 | 2.814 | 3.187 | 3.796 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1938 |
0.145 Sep 1941 |
0.998 Aug 1941 |
1.826 Feb 1941 |
1.988 | 2.063 | 2.277 | 3.099 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1931 |
0.210 Jun 1934 |
0.733 Jun 1934 |
1.189 Jun 1939 |
1.506 Feb 1941 |
1.587 | 1.706 | 1.780 | 2.670 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.658 Aug 1939 |
0.839 Aug 1939 |
1.020 Aug 1939 |
1.201 Aug 1939 |
1.377 Feb 1941 |
1.428 | 1.514 | 1.580 | 2.253 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.838 Jul 1939 |
0.955 Aug 1939 |
1.072 Aug 1939 |
1.188 Aug 1939 |
1.304 Feb 1941 |
1.336 | 1.386 | 1.458 | 1.855 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.846 Jun 1939 |
0.947 Jun 1939 |
1.048 Jun 1939 |
1.150 Jun 1939 |
1.251 Feb 1941 |
1.274 | 1.293 | 1.365 | 1.475 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 2011 |
0.702 Nov 2013 |
3.750 Nov 2013 |
6.798 Nov 2013 |
9.085 Dec 1976 |
9.630 | 9.868 | 10.476 | 11.898 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 2003 |
1.399 Oct 2003 |
2.816 Jul 2003 |
4.217 Jun 2003 |
5.606 Jun 2003 |
5.886 | 6.140 | 6.385 | 7.286 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.714 Nov 1993 |
2.538 Nov 1993 |
3.361 Oct 1993 |
4.182 Oct 1993 |
4.749 Apr 1974 |
5.004 | 5.057 | 5.172 | 5.998 | ||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.453% |
96.99
|
95% Succ. 2.059% |
86.37
|
80% Succ. 2.363% |
82.41
|
80% Succ. 2.070% |
63.30
|
50% Succ. 2.145% |
49.89
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.39
|
95% Succ. 2.801% |
86.76
|
80% Succ. 2.773% |
73.23
|
50% Succ. 2.824% |
46.79
|
32.60
|
27.05
|
|||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.74
|
90% Succ. 3.041% |
68.60
|
50% Succ. 3.257% |
40.40
|
21.79
|
19.10
|
18.41
|
||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.652% |
77.43
|
42.94
|
19.60
|
14.82
|
12.30
|
9.55
|
|||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
97.25
|
95% Succ. 4.145% |
51.69
|
50% Succ. 4.077% |
29.26
|
12.58
|
9.64
|
7.40
|
7.16
|
||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
92.25
|
90% Succ. 4.597% |
44.46
|
20.66
|
7.18
|
5.89
|
5.70
|
5.57
|
|||||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
72.06
|
38.58
|
14.49
|
5.24
|
4.64
|
4.50
|
3.64
|
||||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
54.88
|
50% Succ. 5.841% |
26.69
|
10.44
|
4.19
|
3.04
|
2.40
|
0.57
|
|||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
49.13
|
18.85
|
8.24
|
2.98
|
1.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
43.31
|
12.91
|
5.81
|
1.61
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.488% |
36.13
|
9.32
|
3.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
99.88
|
27.50
|
6.35
|
1.76
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 8.00 % |
97.62
|
19.25
|
3.78
|
0.15
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.453% |
94.31
|
90% Succ. 2.063% |
71.88
|
61.12
|
50% Succ. 2.253% |
43.77
|
32.78
|
|||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.93
|
95% Succ. 2.688% |
75.17
|
59.73
|
50% Succ. 2.670% |
34.51
|
3.60
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
83.71
|
80% Succ. 3.187% |
57.28
|
50% Succ. 3.099% |
26.79
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.652% |
70.63
|
50% Succ. 3.796% |
35.78
|
3.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
95.42
|
95% Succ. 4.015% |
46.61
|
21.64
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
87.83
|
80% Succ. 4.730% |
38.88
|
13.45
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
70.45
|
34.72
|
9.71
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
53.07
|
50% Succ. 5.612% |
20.81
|
7.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
44.95
|
14.15
|
6.52
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
37.88
|
8.56
|
3.74
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
31.84
|
6.66
|
2.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.798% |
23.62
|
3.80
|
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
98.61
|
13.42
|
2.02
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.749% |
||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.02
|
95% Succ. 5.004% |
||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.606% |
70.54
|
50% Succ. 5.998% |
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
92.80
|
90% Succ. 6.140% |
49.38
|
||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
77.01
|
29.88
|
|||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
62.33
|
50% Succ. 7.286% |
23.24
|
||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
42.11
|
13.28
|
|||
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
25.21
|
7.05
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
