Last Update: 31 October 2024
US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries is an asset class belonging to Fixed Income category.
You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.339% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30-year (last update: October 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.391%.
In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: October 2024), the asset class has returned 3.14% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at October 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Nov 2014 |
31 Oct 2024 | 0.000 | 9.320 |
1.17 [ -1.67 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
| 20 Years |
1 Nov 2004 |
31 Oct 2024 | 0.000 | 4.944 |
1.78 [ -0.75 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
| 30 Years |
1 Nov 1994 |
31 Oct 2024 | 0.724 | 4.391 |
3.14 [ 0.60 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
| 40 Years |
1 Nov 1984 |
31 Oct 2024 | 2.125 | 4.529 |
4.42 [ 1.60 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
| 50 Years |
1 Nov 1974 |
31 Oct 2024 | 2.071 | 3.629 |
5.48 [ 1.71 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
| 60 Years |
1 Nov 1964 |
31 Oct 2024 | 1.545 | 2.697 |
5.42 [ 1.43 ] |
-8.52 Apr 1971 - Jul 1971 |
| 70 Years |
1 Nov 1954 |
31 Oct 2024 | 1.532 | 2.415 |
5.09 [ 1.45 ] |
-8.52 Apr 1971 - Jul 1971 |
| 80 Years |
1 Nov 1944 |
31 Oct 2024 | 0.802 | 1.517 |
4.65 [ 0.94 ] |
-8.52 Apr 1971 - Jul 1971 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Oct 2024).
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1908 |
0.000 May 1910 |
1.352 May 1941 |
4.461 May 1941 |
7.569 May 1941 |
8.146 | 8.887 | 9.629 | 10.912 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 1898 |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.618 Jul 1933 |
2.102 Aug 1939 |
3.462 Feb 1941 |
3.981 | 4.150 | 5.117 | 5.854 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.000 Mar 1933 |
0.804 Jun 1933 |
1.573 Jun 1939 |
2.339 Jun 1939 |
2.560 | 2.820 | 3.761 | 4.185 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1931 |
0.000 Apr 1939 |
0.466 Apr 1940 |
1.147 Dec 1940 |
1.793 Jun 1939 |
1.947 | 2.143 | 2.932 | 3.429 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.203 Jun 1933 |
0.644 Jun 1933 |
1.085 Jun 1933 |
1.485 Jun 1939 |
1.571 | 1.782 | 2.388 | 2.925 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.444 Jun 1933 |
0.670 Jun 1933 |
0.896 Jun 1933 |
1.122 Jun 1933 |
1.347 Jun 1939 |
1.409 | 1.503 | 2.025 | 2.476 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.345 May 1911 |
0.691 May 1911 |
0.951 Jun 1933 |
1.100 Jun 1933 |
1.250 Jun 1933 |
1.313 | 1.368 | 1.732 | 2.174 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.588 Jun 1939 |
0.737 Jun 1939 |
0.887 Jun 1939 |
1.037 Jun 1939 |
1.180 Jun 1933 |
1.234 | 1.262 | 1.602 | 1.968 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1932 |
0.000 Dec 1936 |
1.352 May 1941 |
4.461 May 1941 |
7.569 May 1941 |
8.073 | 8.939 | 9.553 | 10.575 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1930 |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.618 Jul 1933 |
2.102 Aug 1939 |
3.462 Feb 1941 |
3.814 | 4.004 | 4.927 | 5.698 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.000 Mar 1933 |
0.804 Jun 1933 |
1.573 Jun 1939 |
2.339 Jun 1939 |
2.504 | 2.568 | 2.915 | 4.029 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1931 |
0.000 Apr 1939 |
0.466 Apr 1940 |
1.147 Dec 1940 |
1.793 Jun 1939 |
1.903 | 1.951 | 2.156 | 3.332 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.203 Jun 1933 |
0.644 Jun 1933 |
1.085 Jun 1933 |
1.485 Jun 1939 |
1.549 | 1.569 | 1.757 | 2.825 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.444 Jun 1933 |
0.670 Jun 1933 |
0.896 Jun 1933 |
1.122 Jun 1933 |
1.347 Jun 1939 |
1.392 | 1.405 | 1.448 | 2.248 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.653 Jun 1933 |
0.802 Jun 1933 |
0.951 Jun 1933 |
1.100 Jun 1933 |
1.250 Jun 1933 |
1.280 | 1.307 | 1.324 | 1.659 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.588 Jun 1939 |
0.737 Jun 1939 |
0.887 Jun 1939 |
1.037 Jun 1939 |
1.180 Jun 1933 |
1.204 | 1.224 | 1.237 | 1.394 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 2007 |
0.717 Oct 2013 |
3.621 Nov 2013 |
6.524 Nov 2013 |
9.320 Nov 2014 |
9.511 | 9.590 | 10.093 | 11.364 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 2001 |
0.419 Jul 2003 |
1.919 Jul 2003 |
3.419 Jan 2004 |
4.879 Jan 2004 |
4.975 | 5.259 | 5.840 | 6.546 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.488 Oct 1993 |
1.431 Oct 1993 |
2.375 Oct 1993 |
3.318 Oct 1993 |
4.248 Feb 1994 |
4.315 | 4.394 | 4.839 | 5.097 | ||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.339% |
92.54
|
90% Succ. 2.143% |
85.49
|
80% Succ. 2.388% |
80.92
|
80% Succ. 2.025% |
67.83
|
50% Succ. 2.174% |
47.69
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.18
|
95% Succ. 2.560% |
86.47
|
80% Succ. 2.932% |
77.15
|
50% Succ. 2.925% |
48.45
|
31.78
|
31.12
|
|||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.462% |
88.57
|
77.98
|
50% Succ. 3.429% |
43.95
|
25.02
|
23.83
|
22.10
|
||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
99.50
|
95% Succ. 3.981% |
86.35
|
80% Succ. 3.761% |
44.40
|
23.18
|
19.96
|
16.98
|
18.15
|
||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
94.21
|
90% Succ. 4.150% |
60.73
|
50% Succ. 4.185% |
30.65
|
16.60
|
14.73
|
14.40
|
12.85
|
||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
89.61
|
41.49
|
21.51
|
12.51
|
12.07
|
10.43
|
8.34
|
||||||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
82.33
|
80% Succ. 5.117% |
31.74
|
15.29
|
9.62
|
8.34
|
7.05
|
6.43
|
|||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
63.16
|
50% Succ. 5.854% |
22.93
|
11.27
|
6.09
|
5.68
|
5.16
|
4.85
|
|||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
46.55
|
16.14
|
7.90
|
4.81
|
4.17
|
4.07
|
3.72
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
38.15
|
12.37
|
5.19
|
3.77
|
3.11
|
2.38
|
1.13
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
31.61
|
8.47
|
4.17
|
2.81
|
1.33
|
0.50
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.569% |
24.46
|
6.05
|
3.37
|
1.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
96.53
|
14.69
|
3.83
|
2.19
|
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.339% |
85.85
|
80% Succ. 2.156% |
69.88
|
59.46
|
50% Succ. 2.248% |
41.27
|
11.20
|
|||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.01
|
95% Succ. 2.504% |
74.34
|
63.73
|
50% Succ. 2.825% |
34.72
|
2.49
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.462% |
79.79
|
65.46
|
50% Succ. 3.332% |
31.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
99.17
|
95% Succ. 3.814% |
76.10
|
30.51
|
1.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
90.32
|
90% Succ. 4.004% |
51.96
|
50% Succ. 4.029% |
17.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
82.62
|
80% Succ. 4.927% |
30.08
|
10.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
77.63
|
18.31
|
5.13
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
56.50
|
50% Succ. 5.698% |
9.87
|
2.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
37.98
|
5.71
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
26.64
|
3.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
18.11
|
0.59
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.569% |
10.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
96.02
|
4.58
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.248% |
||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.879% |
87.55
|
80% Succ. 4.839% |
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
92.80
|
90% Succ. 5.259% |
63.07
|
50% Succ. 5.097% |
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
87.81
|
80% Succ. 5.840% |
34.44
|
||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
77.01
|
19.92
|
|||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
52.35
|
50% Succ. 6.546% |
10.79
|
||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
31.30
|
2.07
|
|||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
20.22
|
0.00
|
|||
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
12.19
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
