Last Update: 30 November 2024
US Treasuries (7-10y) is an asset class belonging to Fixed Income category.
You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.375% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30-year (last update: November 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.287%.
In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the asset class has returned 5.06% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -23.18%.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at November 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Dec 2014 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.000 | 9.640 |
0.88 [ -2.00 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 20 Years |
1 Dec 2004 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.800 | 6.245 |
3.25 [ 0.69 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 30 Years |
1 Dec 1994 |
30 Nov 2024 | 3.277 | 6.287 |
5.06 [ 2.49 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 40 Years |
1 Dec 1984 |
30 Nov 2024 | 5.191 | 6.872 |
6.46 [ 3.58 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 50 Years |
1 Dec 1974 |
30 Nov 2024 | 3.066 | 4.006 |
6.74 [ 2.94 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 60 Years |
1 Dec 1964 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.912 | 2.595 |
6.27 [ 2.25 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 70 Years |
1 Dec 1954 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.631 | 2.161 |
5.69 [ 2.03 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 80 Years |
1 Dec 1944 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.976 | 1.419 |
5.19 [ 1.47 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Nov 2024).
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1897 |
0.000 May 1908 |
0.853 Oct 1971 |
4.621 Oct 1971 |
7.493 Sep 1915 |
8.069 | 8.573 | 9.462 | 11.182 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1897 |
0.000 Feb 1898 |
0.289 Jul 1900 |
2.260 Feb 1941 |
3.585 May 1941 |
4.023 | 4.277 | 4.561 | 6.005 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1889 |
0.000 Apr 1939 |
0.606 May 1940 |
1.523 Nov 1940 |
2.375 Feb 1941 |
2.692 | 2.952 | 3.173 | 3.928 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1933 |
0.000 May 1938 |
0.000 Apr 1940 |
0.748 Sep 1941 |
1.737 May 1941 |
1.928 | 2.205 | 2.567 | 3.142 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1930 |
0.000 May 1931 |
0.507 Oct 1931 |
1.094 Feb 1941 |
1.405 Feb 1941 |
1.614 | 1.683 | 2.181 | 2.727 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.386 Aug 1897 |
0.767 Aug 1897 |
0.963 Dec 1940 |
1.125 Feb 1941 |
1.286 Feb 1941 |
1.459 | 1.520 | 1.882 | 2.312 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Mar 1911 |
0.293 Oct 1911 |
0.768 May 1911 |
1.119 Feb 1941 |
1.222 Feb 1941 |
1.368 | 1.429 | 1.660 | 2.006 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1901 |
0.179 Oct 1901 |
0.606 Oct 1901 |
1.019 May 1901 |
1.180 Feb 1941 |
1.297 | 1.366 | 1.472 | 1.870 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1936 |
0.000 Aug 1938 |
0.853 Oct 1971 |
4.621 Oct 1971 |
7.643 Feb 1946 |
8.227 | 8.646 | 9.381 | 10.812 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Dec 1936 |
0.842 Aug 1939 |
2.260 Feb 1941 |
3.585 May 1941 |
3.909 | 4.211 | 4.577 | 5.481 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1932 |
0.000 Apr 1939 |
0.606 May 1940 |
1.523 Nov 1940 |
2.375 Feb 1941 |
2.590 | 2.708 | 3.119 | 3.628 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1933 |
0.000 May 1938 |
0.000 Apr 1940 |
0.748 Sep 1941 |
1.737 May 1941 |
1.859 | 1.931 | 2.212 | 2.970 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1930 |
0.000 May 1931 |
0.507 Oct 1931 |
1.094 Feb 1941 |
1.405 Feb 1941 |
1.499 | 1.610 | 1.677 | 2.508 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.596 Dec 1934 |
0.795 Aug 1939 |
0.963 Dec 1940 |
1.125 Feb 1941 |
1.286 Feb 1941 |
1.350 | 1.441 | 1.506 | 2.090 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.809 Apr 1941 |
0.914 Feb 1941 |
1.016 Feb 1941 |
1.119 Feb 1941 |
1.222 Feb 1941 |
1.268 | 1.323 | 1.402 | 1.733 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.858 May 1941 |
0.940 May 1941 |
1.022 May 1941 |
1.103 Feb 1941 |
1.180 Feb 1941 |
1.209 | 1.232 | 1.318 | 1.402 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 2012 |
0.575 Nov 2013 |
3.741 Dec 2014 |
6.690 Dec 2014 |
8.494 Jan 1977 |
9.122 | 9.991 | 10.812 | 12.280 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.494 Nov 2003 |
1.905 Apr 2004 |
3.296 Apr 2004 |
4.687 Apr 2004 |
5.643 Jan 1977 |
5.985 | 6.141 | 6.650 | 7.643 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.194 Nov 1993 |
2.980 Nov 1993 |
3.765 Nov 1993 |
4.372 Jan 1977 |
4.719 Jan 1977 |
4.984 | 5.042 | 5.491 | 6.451 | ||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.375% |
93.20
|
90% Succ. 2.205% |
85.50
|
80% Succ. 2.181% |
70.57
|
50% Succ. 2.312% |
50.60
|
50% Succ. 2.006% |
47.97
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.72
|
95% Succ. 2.692% |
81.87
|
80% Succ. 2.567% |
58.17
|
50% Succ. 2.727% |
43.09
|
27.58
|
24.21
|
|||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
87.90
|
80% Succ. 3.173% |
55.48
|
50% Succ. 3.142% |
35.74
|
19.50
|
18.65
|
18.81
|
||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.585% |
62.43
|
50% Succ. 3.928% |
39.55
|
20.35
|
15.69
|
15.18
|
10.92
|
||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
95.77
|
95% Succ. 4.023% |
49.19
|
29.17
|
14.66
|
10.90
|
8.73
|
7.21
|
|||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
83.08
|
80% Succ. 4.561% |
43.68
|
21.78
|
8.81
|
6.47
|
5.46
|
4.50
|
|||||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
65.49
|
35.75
|
18.20
|
5.69
|
3.81
|
3.17
|
1.58
|
||||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
54.60
|
30.04
|
12.72
|
3.53
|
1.68
|
0.30
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
50.06
|
50% Succ. 6.005% |
23.59
|
10.31
|
1.84
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
45.46
|
18.88
|
7.53
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.493% |
40.17
|
11.90
|
4.82
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
99.94
|
31.53
|
8.40
|
2.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 8.00 % |
95.78
|
24.56
|
5.24
|
1.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.375% |
87.10
|
80% Succ. 2.212% |
69.88
|
54.68
|
50% Succ. 2.090% |
32.69
|
24.90
|
|||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.74
|
95% Succ. 2.590% |
70.04
|
50% Succ. 2.970% |
50.08
|
50% Succ. 2.508% |
25.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
83.47
|
80% Succ. 3.119% |
46.74
|
18.80
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.585% |
54.58
|
50% Succ. 3.628% |
32.18
|
4.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
93.03
|
90% Succ. 4.211% |
42.45
|
20.39
|
0.67
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
84.18
|
80% Succ. 4.577% |
37.57
|
14.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
65.56
|
50% Succ. 5.481% |
30.44
|
10.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
49.74
|
24.38
|
9.29
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
44.64
|
18.67
|
8.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
38.92
|
13.79
|
8.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
35.80
|
8.80
|
5.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.643% |
27.16
|
7.13
|
3.74
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
97.78
|
17.38
|
5.47
|
2.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.719% |
||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.53
|
90% Succ. 5.042% |
||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.643% |
79.67
|
||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
94.18
|
90% Succ. 6.141% |
65.15
|
50% Succ. 6.451% |
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
81.99
|
80% Succ. 6.650% |
48.13
|
||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
75.35
|
30.71
|
|||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
54.85
|
50% Succ. 7.643% |
24.90
|
||
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
38.78
|
19.09
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Treasuries (7-10y) Asset Class
For the US Treasuries (7-10y) Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
