Last Update: 31 March 2024
US Small Cap Value is an asset class belonging to Stocks category.
You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.118% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30-year (last update: March 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.86%.
In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series(*).
(*)1871-1926: data source extended with US Total Stock Market returns.
US Small Cap Value asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2024), the asset class has returned 10.46% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -54.13%.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at March 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Apr 2014 |
31 Mar 2024 | 4.713 | 12.619 |
7.75 [ 4.79 ] |
-40.32 Sep 2018 - Mar 2020 |
| 20 Years |
1 Apr 2004 |
31 Mar 2024 | 5.360 | 7.905 |
8.57 [ 5.83 ] |
-54.13 Jun 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 30 Years |
1 Apr 1994 |
31 Mar 2024 | 8.803 | 9.860 |
10.46 [ 7.73 ] |
-54.13 Jun 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 40 Years |
1 Apr 1984 |
31 Mar 2024 | 10.591 | 10.973 |
11.83 [ 8.76 ] |
-54.13 Jun 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 50 Years |
1 Apr 1974 |
31 Mar 2024 | 11.780 | 11.877 |
14.31 [ 10.10 ] |
-54.13 Jun 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 60 Years |
1 Apr 1964 |
31 Mar 2024 | 8.996 | 9.041 |
13.56 [ 9.26 ] |
-54.13 Jun 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 70 Years |
1 Apr 1954 |
31 Mar 2024 | 13.550 | 13.566 |
14.02 [ 10.10 ] |
-54.13 Jun 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 80 Years |
1 Apr 1944 |
31 Mar 2024 | 12.650 | 12.655 |
14.38 [ 10.32 ] |
-54.13 Jun 2007 - Feb 2009 |
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Small Cap Value asset class?
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation.
The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Mar 2024).
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1908 |
0.000 Jun 1910 |
1.421 Jul 1911 |
3.170 Sep 1929 |
4.917 Sep 1929 |
8.611 | 9.897 | 11.365 | 14.711 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1901 |
0.000 Jun 1912 |
0.898 Jul 1912 |
2.920 Sep 1929 |
3.380 Sep 1929 |
5.550 | 5.950 | 7.577 | 9.945 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1902 |
0.620 Jun 1902 |
1.970 Jun 1902 |
3.044 Sep 1929 |
3.118 Sep 1929 |
4.523 | 4.922 | 6.176 | 8.853 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.229 Jun 1892 |
2.958 Jun 1892 |
3.010 Sep 1929 |
3.034 Sep 1929 |
3.058 Sep 1929 |
4.131 | 4.509 | 5.460 | 8.046 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.972 Sep 1929 |
2.985 Sep 1929 |
2.999 Sep 1929 |
3.013 Sep 1929 |
3.027 Sep 1929 |
4.000 | 4.296 | 5.110 | 7.438 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.004 Sep 1929 |
3.007 Sep 1929 |
3.011 Sep 1929 |
3.014 Sep 1929 |
3.017 Sep 1929 |
3.950 | 4.219 | 4.924 | 7.185 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.009 Sep 1929 |
3.011 Sep 1929 |
3.012 Sep 1929 |
3.013 Sep 1929 |
3.014 Sep 1929 |
3.896 | 4.119 | 4.767 | 6.415 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.010 Sep 1929 |
3.011 Sep 1929 |
3.012 Sep 1929 |
3.012 Sep 1929 |
3.013 Sep 1929 |
3.851 | 4.053 | 4.631 | 5.968 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1928 |
0.000 Sep 1929 |
1.423 Sep 1929 |
3.170 Sep 1929 |
4.917 Sep 1929 |
8.640 | 10.073 | 11.973 | 15.732 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.538 Sep 1929 |
1.999 Sep 1929 |
2.459 Sep 1929 |
2.920 Sep 1929 |
3.380 Sep 1929 |
5.972 | 7.342 | 8.445 | 11.262 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.822 Sep 1929 |
2.896 Sep 1929 |
2.970 Sep 1929 |
3.044 Sep 1929 |
3.118 Sep 1929 |
5.427 | 6.590 | 8.009 | 10.615 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.963 Sep 1929 |
2.986 Sep 1929 |
3.010 Sep 1929 |
3.034 Sep 1929 |
3.058 Sep 1929 |
5.096 | 6.187 | 7.457 | 10.372 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.972 Sep 1929 |
2.985 Sep 1929 |
2.999 Sep 1929 |
3.013 Sep 1929 |
3.027 Sep 1929 |
4.827 | 5.753 | 7.077 | 9.531 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.004 Sep 1929 |
3.007 Sep 1929 |
3.011 Sep 1929 |
3.014 Sep 1929 |
3.017 Sep 1929 |
4.518 | 5.764 | 7.234 | 10.202 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.009 Sep 1929 |
3.011 Sep 1929 |
3.012 Sep 1929 |
3.013 Sep 1929 |
3.014 Sep 1929 |
4.272 | 5.074 | 6.621 | 10.580 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.010 Sep 1929 |
3.011 Sep 1929 |
3.012 Sep 1929 |
3.012 Sep 1929 |
3.013 Sep 1929 |
4.071 | 4.512 | 5.756 | 8.807 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.602 Mar 1999 |
4.858 Feb 2006 |
6.617 Jun 2007 |
8.051 Jun 2007 |
9.485 Jun 2007 |
10.841 | 11.938 | 13.100 | 16.214 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
5.094 May 2002 |
5.662 May 2002 |
6.173 May 1998 |
6.676 May 1998 |
7.179 May 1998 |
8.098 | 8.674 | 9.664 | 11.892 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
7.450 Sep 1987 |
7.632 Sep 1987 |
7.814 Sep 1987 |
7.996 Sep 1987 |
8.178 Sep 1987 |
8.860 | 9.332 | 9.885 | 11.934 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Small Cap Value asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.380% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.118% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.058% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.027% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.017% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.014% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.013% |
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
99.94
|
99.80
|
99.71
|
99.68
|
99.55
|
95% Succ. 3.950% |
99.50
|
95% Succ. 3.896% |
99.32
|
95% Succ. 3.851% |
|||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
99.69
|
99.19
|
97.06
|
95% Succ. 4.131% |
95.00
|
95% Succ. 4.000% |
94.20
|
90% Succ. 4.219% |
93.00
|
90% Succ. 4.119% |
92.05
|
90% Succ. 4.053% |
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.917% |
99.31
|
95.07
|
95% Succ. 4.523% |
90.22
|
90% Succ. 4.509% |
88.06
|
86.52
|
80% Succ. 4.924% |
84.80
|
80% Succ. 4.767% |
82.61
|
80% Succ. 4.631% |
||
| 5.00 % |
99.94
|
98.50
|
88.99
|
85.29
|
80% Succ. 5.460% |
81.77
|
80% Succ. 5.110% |
78.66
|
75.60
|
72.16
|
||||||
| 5.50 % |
99.83
|
95.56
|
95% Succ. 5.550% |
85.54
|
79.19
|
72.74
|
69.11
|
64.80
|
59.66
|
50% Succ. 5.968% |
||||||
| 6.00 % |
99.53
|
89.44
|
81.35
|
80% Succ. 6.176% |
72.87
|
65.65
|
61.16
|
55.50
|
50% Succ. 6.415% |
48.86
|
||||||
| 6.50 % |
99.30
|
86.25
|
77.03
|
66.03
|
58.79
|
55.09
|
49.20
|
42.16
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
99.07
|
83.94
|
71.08
|
60.44
|
54.35
|
50% Succ. 7.438% |
51.25
|
50% Succ. 7.185% |
45.30
|
38.07
|
||||||
| 7.50 % |
98.60
|
80.81
|
80% Succ. 7.577% |
63.85
|
55.51
|
49.60
|
47.95
|
40.60
|
32.50
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
97.50
|
76.00
|
58.65
|
50.81
|
42.82
|
40.89
|
32.30
|
23.86
|
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.380% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.118% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.058% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.027% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.017% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.014% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.013% |
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
99.90
|
99.64
|
99.45
|
99.33
|
99.17
|
98.89
|
98.34
|
||||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
99.48
|
98.69
|
98.47
|
98.17
|
97.71
|
96.95
|
95% Succ. 4.272% |
95.44
|
95% Succ. 4.071% |
||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.917% |
98.86
|
97.50
|
96.81
|
96.17
|
95% Succ. 4.827% |
95.22
|
95% Succ. 4.518% |
93.63
|
90.46
|
90% Succ. 4.512% |
||||
| 5.00 % |
99.91
|
97.71
|
96.31
|
95% Succ. 5.427% |
95.28
|
95% Succ. 5.096% |
94.01
|
92.72
|
90.30
|
90% Succ. 5.074% |
85.48
|
|||||
| 5.50 % |
99.72
|
96.46
|
95% Succ. 5.972% |
94.53
|
93.07
|
91.35
|
90% Succ. 5.753% |
90.64
|
90% Succ. 5.764% |
87.26
|
80.91
|
80% Succ. 5.756% |
||||
| 6.00 % |
99.26
|
94.90
|
92.51
|
91.12
|
90% Succ. 6.187% |
88.85
|
89.19
|
85.32
|
77.59
|
|||||||
| 6.50 % |
98.89
|
93.65
|
90.49
|
90% Succ. 6.590% |
87.52
|
84.86
|
85.86
|
81.16
|
80% Succ. 6.621% |
71.78
|
||||||
| 7.00 % |
98.52
|
91.99
|
90% Succ. 7.342% |
87.51
|
84.60
|
80% Succ. 7.457% |
80.70
|
80% Succ. 7.077% |
82.33
|
80% Succ. 7.234% |
76.45
|
65.56
|
||||
| 7.50 % |
97.78
|
89.07
|
83.83
|
79.75
|
74.88
|
79.00
|
71.75
|
60.17
|
||||||||
| 8.00 % |
96.11
|
85.43
|
80.02
|
74.90
|
68.55
|
76.51
|
68.70
|
56.85
|
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.179% |
100.00
|
||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
99.17
|
100.00
|
|||
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
96.40
|
100.00
|
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Small Cap Value Asset Class
For the US Small Cap Value Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
