Last Update: 31 October 2024
US Large Cap is an asset class belonging to Stocks category.
You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.868% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30-year (last update: October 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.857%.
In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
US Large Cap asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: October 2024), the asset class has returned 10.59% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.8%.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at October 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Nov 2014 |
31 Oct 2024 | 8.824 | 14.584 |
12.91 [ 9.74 ] |
-23.93 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 20 Years |
1 Nov 2004 |
31 Oct 2024 | 6.008 | 7.750 |
10.49 [ 7.75 ] |
-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 30 Years |
1 Nov 1994 |
31 Oct 2024 | 7.945 | 8.857 |
10.59 [ 7.87 ] |
-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 40 Years |
1 Nov 1984 |
31 Oct 2024 | 9.901 | 10.289 |
11.56 [ 8.54 ] |
-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 50 Years |
1 Nov 1974 |
31 Oct 2024 | 7.309 | 7.474 |
11.93 [ 7.93 ] |
-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 60 Years |
1 Nov 1964 |
31 Oct 2024 | 3.441 | 3.550 |
10.15 [ 5.98 ] |
-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 70 Years |
1 Nov 1954 |
31 Oct 2024 | 7.026 | 7.092 |
10.73 [ 6.89 ] |
-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
| 80 Years |
1 Nov 1944 |
31 Oct 2024 | 8.229 | 8.256 |
11.35 [ 7.42 ] |
-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Large Cap asset class?
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation.
The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Oct 2024).
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1908 |
0.000 Jun 1910 |
0.757 Mar 1999 |
3.632 Sep 1929 |
5.559 Sep 1929 |
8.250 | 8.888 | 10.354 | 13.857 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1901 |
0.819 Sep 1929 |
1.647 Sep 1929 |
2.474 Sep 1929 |
3.301 Sep 1929 |
4.830 | 5.294 | 6.071 | 8.794 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.529 Jun 1902 |
2.337 Jun 1902 |
2.595 Sep 1929 |
2.731 Sep 1929 |
2.868 Sep 1929 |
4.176 | 4.588 | 5.154 | 7.340 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.454 Sep 1929 |
2.529 Sep 1929 |
2.605 Sep 1929 |
2.681 Sep 1929 |
2.756 Sep 1929 |
3.885 | 4.190 | 4.628 | 6.444 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.309 Sep 1929 |
2.398 Sep 1929 |
2.486 Sep 1929 |
2.574 Sep 1929 |
2.663 Sep 1929 |
3.664 | 3.960 | 4.362 | 5.908 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.474 Sep 1929 |
2.504 Sep 1929 |
2.535 Sep 1929 |
2.565 Sep 1929 |
2.596 Sep 1929 |
3.875 | 4.120 | 4.646 | 6.014 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.539 Sep 1929 |
2.548 Sep 1929 |
2.557 Sep 1929 |
2.565 Sep 1929 |
2.574 Sep 1929 |
3.872 | 4.107 | 4.692 | 6.135 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.515 Sep 1929 |
2.527 Sep 1929 |
2.539 Sep 1929 |
2.551 Sep 1929 |
2.563 Sep 1929 |
3.789 | 4.046 | 4.568 | 5.815 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1928 |
0.000 Sep 1929 |
0.757 Mar 1999 |
3.632 Sep 1929 |
5.559 Sep 1929 |
7.927 | 8.681 | 10.114 | 13.900 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 1929 |
0.819 Sep 1929 |
1.647 Sep 1929 |
2.474 Sep 1929 |
3.301 Sep 1929 |
4.633 | 4.921 | 5.728 | 8.805 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.322 Sep 1929 |
2.458 Sep 1929 |
2.595 Sep 1929 |
2.731 Sep 1929 |
2.868 Sep 1929 |
3.914 | 4.264 | 4.937 | 7.893 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.454 Sep 1929 |
2.529 Sep 1929 |
2.605 Sep 1929 |
2.681 Sep 1929 |
2.756 Sep 1929 |
3.661 | 3.928 | 4.468 | 6.772 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.309 Sep 1929 |
2.398 Sep 1929 |
2.486 Sep 1929 |
2.574 Sep 1929 |
2.663 Sep 1929 |
3.488 | 3.674 | 4.137 | 5.966 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.474 Sep 1929 |
2.504 Sep 1929 |
2.535 Sep 1929 |
2.565 Sep 1929 |
2.596 Sep 1929 |
3.715 | 4.129 | 4.686 | 6.523 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.539 Sep 1929 |
2.548 Sep 1929 |
2.557 Sep 1929 |
2.565 Sep 1929 |
2.574 Sep 1929 |
3.649 | 4.294 | 5.540 | 7.466 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.515 Sep 1929 |
2.527 Sep 1929 |
2.539 Sep 1929 |
2.551 Sep 1929 |
2.563 Sep 1929 |
3.302 | 3.897 | 4.629 | 6.469 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1998 |
0.000 Dec 1998 |
0.757 Mar 1999 |
4.439 Sep 2000 |
7.185 Sep 2000 |
8.755 | 9.956 | 10.832 | 14.853 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.769 Apr 2000 |
2.440 Apr 2000 |
3.110 Apr 2000 |
3.780 Apr 2000 |
4.450 Apr 2000 |
4.953 | 5.792 | 7.462 | 9.971 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
5.904 Sep 1987 |
6.142 Jul 1976 |
6.340 Apr 1976 |
6.536 Apr 1976 |
6.732 Apr 1976 |
7.015 | 7.525 | 8.146 | 8.941 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Large Cap asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.868% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.756% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.663% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.596% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.574% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.563% |
||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.301% |
99.93
|
99.85
|
99.76
|
99.65
|
99.60
|
99.55
|
|||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
99.88
|
99.46
|
99.05
|
95% Succ. 3.885% |
97.27
|
95% Succ. 3.664% |
98.58
|
95% Succ. 3.875% |
98.41
|
95% Succ. 3.872% |
97.97
|
95% Succ. 3.789% |
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
99.75
|
96.57
|
95% Succ. 4.176% |
92.90
|
90% Succ. 4.190% |
89.17
|
80% Succ. 4.362% |
92.90
|
90% Succ. 4.120% |
92.85
|
90% Succ. 4.107% |
91.32
|
90% Succ. 4.046% |
||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
98.01
|
95% Succ. 4.830% |
91.12
|
90% Succ. 4.588% |
82.59
|
80% Succ. 4.628% |
77.15
|
82.87
|
80% Succ. 4.646% |
84.11
|
80% Succ. 4.692% |
81.29
|
80% Succ. 4.568% |
||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
92.78
|
90% Succ. 5.294% |
82.38
|
80% Succ. 5.154% |
74.10
|
68.16
|
71.69
|
74.18
|
69.79
|
||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.559% |
87.68
|
75.32
|
66.13
|
56.62
|
50% Succ. 5.908% |
59.01
|
63.16
|
57.72
|
50% Succ. 5.815% |
|||||
| 6.00 % |
99.88
|
80.90
|
80% Succ. 6.071% |
69.47
|
56.99
|
50% Succ. 6.444% |
48.60
|
50.22
|
50% Succ. 6.014% |
53.13
|
50% Succ. 6.135% |
46.11
|
||||
| 6.50 % |
99.77
|
74.36
|
63.21
|
49.31
|
38.89
|
40.55
|
44.29
|
36.87
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
99.19
|
71.31
|
55.95
|
50% Succ. 7.340% |
41.40
|
34.00
|
35.58
|
39.42
|
32.24
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
98.32
|
66.96
|
47.55
|
36.21
|
29.83
|
31.32
|
34.06
|
26.27
|
||||||||
| 8.00 % |
96.29
|
60.24
|
41.90
|
31.75
|
24.14
|
24.13
|
24.33
|
16.35
|
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
||||||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.868% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.756% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.663% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.596% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.574% |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.563% |
||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.301% |
99.88
|
99.72
|
99.50
|
95% Succ. 3.488% |
99.17
|
98.89
|
98.34
|
95% Succ. 3.302% |
|||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
99.79
|
99.05
|
95% Succ. 3.914% |
98.20
|
95% Succ. 3.661% |
94.34
|
90% Succ. 3.674% |
96.67
|
95% Succ. 3.715% |
95.57
|
95% Succ. 3.649% |
92.95
|
90% Succ. 3.897% |
||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
99.58
|
93.94
|
90% Succ. 4.264% |
88.49
|
80% Succ. 4.468% |
83.19
|
80% Succ. 4.137% |
91.89
|
90% Succ. 4.129% |
93.07
|
90% Succ. 4.294% |
89.63
|
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
96.67
|
95% Succ. 4.633% |
86.80
|
80% Succ. 4.937% |
79.33
|
71.05
|
83.58
|
80% Succ. 4.686% |
89.20
|
83.40
|
80% Succ. 4.629% |
||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
88.14
|
79.79
|
71.98
|
62.40
|
72.77
|
82.83
|
73.86
|
||||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.559% |
82.21
|
80% Succ. 5.728% |
74.79
|
64.36
|
54.41
|
50% Succ. 5.966% |
64.86
|
80.33
|
80% Succ. 5.540% |
70.12
|
||||
| 6.00 % |
99.81
|
77.84
|
69.20
|
59.92
|
49.42
|
59.46
|
74.79
|
61.83
|
50% Succ. 6.469% |
|||||||
| 6.50 % |
99.63
|
72.84
|
65.52
|
54.23
|
50% Succ. 6.772% |
42.10
|
50.10
|
50% Succ. 6.523% |
65.37
|
49.38
|
||||||
| 7.00 % |
98.70
|
69.82
|
60.29
|
47.16
|
37.27
|
44.28
|
58.45
|
50% Succ. 7.466% |
41.91
|
|||||||
| 7.50 % |
97.32
|
95% Succ. 7.927% |
65.14
|
54.22
|
50% Succ. 7.893% |
41.89
|
32.28
|
37.63
|
49.58
|
31.95
|
||||||
| 8.00 % |
94.17
|
58.79
|
48.63
|
36.48
|
26.62
|
32.43
|
41.83
|
24.07
|
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.450% |
100.00
|
||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
99.17
|
95% Succ. 4.953% |
100.00
|
||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
94.46
|
100.00
|
|||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
92.24
|
90% Succ. 5.792% |
100.00
|
||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
89.20
|
100.00
|
|||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
85.87
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.732% |
||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.185% |
83.10
|
80% Succ. 7.462% |
95.44
|
95% Succ. 7.015% |
| 7.50 % |
99.38
|
79.50
|
90.46
|
90% Succ. 7.525% |
||
| 8.00 % |
97.30
|
73.13
|
82.57
|
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Large Cap Asset Class
For the US Large Cap Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
