Last Update: 30 November 2024
US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries is an asset class belonging to Fixed Income category.
You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.276% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30-year (last update: November 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.938%.
In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the asset class has returned 5.44% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -47.74%.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at November 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Dec 2014 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.000 | 9.868 |
-0.19 [ -3.04 ] |
-47.74 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 20 Years |
1 Dec 2004 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.339 | 7.066 |
3.62 [ 1.06 ] |
-47.74 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 30 Years |
1 Dec 1994 |
30 Nov 2024 | 3.958 | 6.938 |
5.44 [ 2.86 ] |
-47.74 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 40 Years |
1 Dec 1984 |
30 Nov 2024 | 6.711 | 8.274 |
7.15 [ 4.25 ] |
-47.74 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 50 Years |
1 Dec 1974 |
30 Nov 2024 | 3.435 | 4.251 |
7.17 [ 3.36 ] |
-47.74 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 60 Years |
1 Dec 1964 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.753 | 2.343 |
6.35 [ 2.32 ] |
-47.74 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 70 Years |
1 Dec 1954 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.327 | 1.800 |
5.58 [ 1.93 ] |
-47.74 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
| 80 Years |
1 Dec 1944 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.844 | 1.250 |
5.13 [ 1.42 ] |
-47.74 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Nov 2024).
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1897 |
0.000 Jan 1909 |
0.190 Oct 1971 |
4.347 Oct 1971 |
7.606 Apr 1916 |
8.212 | 8.528 | 9.157 | 11.381 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1897 |
0.000 Oct 1898 |
0.000 Sep 1961 |
1.995 Oct 1961 |
3.622 Feb 1941 |
3.929 | 4.191 | 4.628 | 5.884 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1890 |
0.000 Dec 1937 |
0.000 Mar 1950 |
1.212 Apr 1950 |
2.276 Feb 1946 |
2.558 | 2.726 | 2.956 | 4.113 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1930 |
0.000 Apr 1934 |
0.000 Nov 1939 |
0.328 Oct 1941 |
1.553 Feb 1946 |
1.736 | 2.001 | 2.366 | 3.304 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1929 |
0.000 Mar 1930 |
0.101 Oct 1931 |
0.906 Jun 1934 |
1.241 Feb 1941 |
1.417 | 1.554 | 2.025 | 2.725 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.112 Jul 1922 |
0.662 May 1941 |
0.823 Dec 1940 |
0.979 Feb 1941 |
1.135 Jan 1941 |
1.295 | 1.357 | 1.768 | 2.334 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1910 |
0.073 Oct 1911 |
0.704 Oct 1911 |
0.977 Feb 1941 |
1.081 Jan 1941 |
1.228 | 1.283 | 1.610 | 2.062 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1901 |
0.175 Oct 1901 |
0.696 Oct 1901 |
0.994 Feb 1941 |
1.049 Jan 1941 |
1.189 | 1.247 | 1.669 | 1.929 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Oct 1936 |
0.000 Nov 1940 |
0.190 Oct 1971 |
4.347 Oct 1971 |
7.634 Feb 1946 |
8.301 | 8.541 | 8.956 | 11.056 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 1932 |
0.000 Sep 1938 |
0.000 Sep 1961 |
1.995 Oct 1961 |
3.622 Feb 1941 |
3.812 | 3.960 | 4.296 | 5.387 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 1932 |
0.000 Dec 1937 |
0.000 Mar 1950 |
1.212 Apr 1950 |
2.276 Feb 1946 |
2.496 | 2.584 | 2.786 | 3.437 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1930 |
0.000 Apr 1934 |
0.000 Nov 1939 |
0.328 Oct 1941 |
1.553 Feb 1946 |
1.686 | 1.743 | 2.026 | 2.614 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1929 |
0.000 Mar 1930 |
0.101 Oct 1931 |
0.906 Jun 1934 |
1.241 Feb 1941 |
1.354 | 1.410 | 1.540 | 2.202 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.478 Dec 1934 |
0.662 May 1941 |
0.823 Dec 1940 |
0.979 Feb 1941 |
1.135 Jan 1941 |
1.214 | 1.282 | 1.341 | 1.866 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.663 Feb 1941 |
0.768 Feb 1941 |
0.872 Feb 1941 |
0.977 Feb 1941 |
1.081 Jan 1941 |
1.138 | 1.202 | 1.257 | 1.530 | ||
|
80 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.787 Nov 1943 |
0.870 Apr 1941 |
0.933 Apr 1941 |
0.994 Feb 1941 |
1.049 Jan 1941 |
1.092 | 1.118 | 1.198 | 1.291 | ||
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
10 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1974 |
0.000 Nov 2013 |
3.151 Dec 2014 |
6.285 Mar 1975 |
7.960 Jan 1977 |
8.636 | 9.750 | 11.495 | 12.828 | |
|
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.808 Nov 2003 |
2.423 Nov 2003 |
3.985 Nov 2004 |
4.907 Jan 1977 |
5.475 Jan 1977 |
5.816 | 6.050 | 7.145 | 8.099 | ||
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.546 Nov 1993 |
3.368 Nov 1993 |
4.074 Jan 1977 |
4.372 Jan 1977 |
4.669 Jan 1977 |
4.937 | 5.012 | 5.831 | 6.938 | ||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.276% |
90.06
|
90% Succ. 2.001% |
80.53
|
80% Succ. 2.025% |
73.40
|
50% Succ. 2.334% |
58.63
|
50% Succ. 2.062% |
45.83
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.98
|
95% Succ. 2.558% |
77.85
|
64.18
|
50% Succ. 2.725% |
36.26
|
33.13
|
29.73
|
||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
77.89
|
61.18
|
50% Succ. 3.304% |
37.42
|
24.38
|
20.34
|
20.72
|
|||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.622% |
64.05
|
44.37
|
24.12
|
17.38
|
16.47
|
14.64
|
|||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
92.85
|
90% Succ. 4.191% |
52.55
|
50% Succ. 4.113% |
31.43
|
16.43
|
12.59
|
9.42
|
9.23
|
||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
82.90
|
80% Succ. 4.628% |
44.69
|
25.95
|
10.58
|
7.45
|
7.64
|
7.77
|
|||||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
61.13
|
39.38
|
18.49
|
7.29
|
6.29
|
6.25
|
6.42
|
||||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
53.54
|
50% Succ. 5.884% |
32.26
|
13.52
|
5.61
|
5.14
|
5.26
|
5.52
|
|||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
49.13
|
27.62
|
11.26
|
4.65
|
4.52
|
3.77
|
2.82
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
47.08
|
20.63
|
10.16
|
4.17
|
2.39
|
1.09
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
42.66
|
15.26
|
8.63
|
2.56
|
0.27
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.606% |
36.19
|
11.09
|
7.53
|
0.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
96.82
|
28.86
|
9.68
|
5.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
40 Years
|
40 Years
|
50 Years
|
50 Years
|
60 Years
|
60 Years
|
70 Years
|
70 Years
|
80 Years
|
80 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.276% |
81.14
|
80% Succ. 2.026% |
59.57
|
50% Succ. 2.202% |
37.63
|
17.45
|
15.35
|
|||||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.65
|
90% Succ. 2.584% |
57.98
|
50% Succ. 2.614% |
32.28
|
4.99
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
60.88
|
50% Succ. 3.437% |
40.92
|
17.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.622% |
48.87
|
34.95
|
6.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
88.03
|
80% Succ. 4.296% |
44.11
|
22.33
|
1.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
72.11
|
38.41
|
16.09
|
0.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
54.73
|
50% Succ. 5.387% |
33.89
|
10.96
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
49.22
|
26.75
|
9.71
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
43.91
|
22.12
|
8.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
42.25
|
18.43
|
8.60
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
40.06
|
13.56
|
8.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||||||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.634% |
33.92
|
8.80
|
7.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|||||||
| 8.00 % |
97.22
|
25.39
|
8.20
|
6.38
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
10 Years
|
10 Years
|
20 Years
|
20 Years
|
30 Years
|
30 Years
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|||
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.669% |
||
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.475% |
90.46
|
90% Succ. 5.012% |
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
99.72
|
95% Succ. 5.816% |
82.57
|
80% Succ. 5.831% |
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
90.58
|
90% Succ. 6.050% |
76.76
|
||
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
87.81
|
64.32
|
50% Succ. 6.938% |
||
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
84.21
|
80% Succ. 7.145% |
47.30
|
||
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.960% |
70.91
|
30.71
|
||
| 8.00 % |
99.79
|
53.46
|
28.63
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
