Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.618% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 35.82% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 10 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
Over the last 10 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 2.67% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 10.181%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Dec 2014 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.000 | 10.181 |
2.67 [ -0.26 ] |
-16.14 Sep 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jun 1897 |
0.000 Feb 1910 |
2.054 May 1911 |
5.155 May 1911 |
7.618 Mar 1916 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.584 |
3.520 |
6.034 |
8.563 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
1.429 |
3.889 |
6.475 |
9.105 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
2.351 |
4.925 |
7.471 |
10.037 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.558 |
4.716 |
6.840 |
9.052 |
11.291 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
10.665 Oct 1981 |
12.352 Oct 1981 |
14.039 Oct 1981 |
15.726 Oct 1981 |
17.413 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Sep 1936 |
0.000 Jun 1941 |
2.504 Oct 1971 |
5.641 Aug 1941 |
8.103 Feb 1946 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.690 |
3.478 |
6.151 |
8.797 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
1.396 |
3.978 |
6.576 |
9.227 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
2.254 |
4.823 |
7.463 |
9.936 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.418 |
4.612 |
6.748 |
8.974 |
11.190 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
10.665 Oct 1981 |
12.352 Oct 1981 |
14.039 Oct 1981 |
15.726 Oct 1981 |
17.413 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jul 2012 |
1.927 Nov 2013 |
4.873 Nov 2013 |
7.568 Dec 2014 |
9.393 Dec 1976 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
2.631 |
5.393 |
8.022 |
10.024 |
||
|
90% |
2.189 |
4.371 |
6.444 |
8.242 |
10.698 |
||
|
80% |
2.645 |
4.781 |
6.826 |
8.999 |
11.099 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
3.509 |
5.455 |
7.589 |
9.759 |
11.839 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
10.665 Oct 1981 |
12.352 Oct 1981 |
14.039 Oct 1981 |
15.726 Oct 1981 |
17.413 Oct 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
83.39
|
57.12
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.19
|
78.88
|
50.75
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.86
|
74.94
|
42.30
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.14
|
71.30
|
38.48
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.19
|
60.71
|
35.82
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
84.03
|
53.65
|
32.23
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
79.40
|
44.73
|
27.89
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.59
|
74.25
|
38.72
|
23.67
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.37
|
68.23
|
36.40
|
19.44
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
89.58
|
56.42
|
31.66
|
15.51
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
85.76
|
47.05
|
27.55
|
11.98
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.618% |
0.00 |
79.63
|
39.76
|
22.92
|
8.28
|
| 8.00 % |
98.84
|
1.16 |
73.73
|
36.81
|
18.46
|
5.09
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
82.70
|
56.52
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
76.97
|
48.10
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.43
|
72.53
|
35.71
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.91
|
68.83
|
30.90
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
89.55
|
60.04
|
28.40
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
84.09
|
52.08
|
25.81
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
78.26
|
39.04
|
22.39
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
71.79
|
30.71
|
18.50
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.76
|
66.33
|
28.95
|
14.99
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
90.75
|
55.69
|
25.07
|
11.19
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
85.94
|
42.37
|
22.20
|
7.77
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
79.19
|
31.82
|
18.41
|
4.53
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
72.16
|
29.14
|
14.15
|
2.31
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.79
|
91.48
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.67
|
84.82
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.76
|
60.91
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.35
|
50.31
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.68
|
44.70
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
87.94
|
39.50
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.58
|
67.15
|
32.22
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.76
|
49.69
|
25.16
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.31
|
45.95
|
18.09
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
89.40
|
37.21
|
13.10
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
72.56
|
31.60
|
10.81
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
51.77
|
23.91
|
8.73
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.63
|
46.15
|
16.63
|
5.20
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
