Last Update: 31 January 2026

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.618% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 35.53% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: January 2026), the portfolio has returned 3.2% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 10.122%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Jan 2026
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Feb 2016
 31 Jan 2026 0.000 10.122 3.20
[ -0.01 ] 		-16.14
Sep 2021 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at September 2025

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Jan 2026)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Jan 2026
Period: Feb 1926 - Jan 2026
Period: Feb 1976 - Jan 2026
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jun 1897 		0.000
Feb 1910 		2.054
May 1911 		5.155
May 1911 		7.618
Mar 1916
95%
 0.000
 0.604
 3.520
 6.048
 8.566
90%
 0.000
 1.436
 3.903
 6.485
 9.127
80%
 0.000
 2.348
 4.911
 7.468
 10.052
50%
Median WR 		2.517
 4.697
 6.826
 9.039
 11.278
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.665
Oct 1981 		12.352
Oct 1981 		14.039
Oct 1981 		15.726
Oct 1981 		17.413
Oct 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Sep 1936 		0.000
Jun 1941 		2.504
Oct 1971 		5.641
Aug 1941 		8.103
Feb 1946
95%
 0.000
 0.690
 3.478
 6.151
 8.797
90%
 0.000
 1.396
 3.978
 6.576
 9.227
80%
 0.000
 2.219
 4.797
 7.435
 9.936
50%
Median WR 		2.345
 4.541
 6.677
 8.918
 11.151
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.665
Oct 1981 		12.352
Oct 1981 		14.039
Oct 1981 		15.726
Oct 1981 		17.413
Oct 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jul 2012 		1.927
Nov 2013 		4.611
Feb 2015 		7.293
Feb 2015 		9.393
Dec 1976
95%
 0.000
 2.492
 5.151
 7.895
 10.111
90%
 1.560
 3.926
 6.236
 8.183
 10.698
80%
 2.608
 4.781
 6.826
 8.999
 11.099
50%
Median WR 		3.509
 5.455
 7.589
 9.759
 11.839
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.665
Oct 1981 		12.352
Oct 1981 		14.039
Oct 1981 		15.726
Oct 1981 		17.413
Oct 1981
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at September 2025

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Jan 2026
Period: Feb 1926 - Jan 2026
Period: Feb 1976 - Jan 2026
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
83.47
56.66
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.20
78.53
50.34
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.88
74.34
41.96
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.18
70.72
38.17
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
88.29
60.22
35.53
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
84.16
53.21
31.97
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
79.16
44.37
27.67
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.60
73.65
38.40
23.48
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
95.41
67.68
36.11
19.29
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
89.67
55.97
31.40
15.38
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
85.88
46.67
27.32
11.88
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.618% 		0.00
79.51
39.44
22.73
8.21
8.00 %
98.85
1.15
73.13
36.51
18.31
5.05
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
82.61
55.23
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
76.13
46.81
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.43
71.23
34.41
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.91
67.53
29.60
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
89.55
58.74
27.10
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
84.09
50.79
24.51
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
77.61
37.74
21.09
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
70.49
29.42
17.21
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
96.76
65.03
27.66
13.69
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
90.75
54.39
23.77
9.90
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
85.94
41.07
20.91
7.12
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
78.72
30.53
17.11
4.53
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
70.86
27.84
12.86
2.31
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.58
89.40
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
94.80
83.37
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
90.85
60.71
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
90.44
50.31
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
89.81
44.70
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
86.69
39.50
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.13
67.15
32.22
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.85
49.69
25.16
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.44
45.95
18.09
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
88.98
37.21
13.10
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
72.56
31.60
10.81
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
98.96
51.77
23.91
8.73
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
93.35
46.15
16.63
5.20
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at September 2025

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com