Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.145% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 29.74% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 3.76% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.095%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Nov 2004 |
31 Oct 2024 | 1.279 | 6.095 |
3.76 [ 1.18 ] |
-16.14 Sep 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jul 1897 |
0.000 Jun 1900 |
1.689 Jul 1900 |
3.002 Aug 1939 |
4.145 Jan 1941 |
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.842 |
2.185 |
3.550 |
4.690 |
||
90% |
0.026 |
1.275 |
2.511 |
3.681 |
4.820 |
||
80% |
0.553 |
1.681 |
2.846 |
3.984 |
5.067 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.438 |
3.237 |
4.154 |
5.186 |
6.278 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.819 Oct 1981 |
9.476 Oct 1981 |
10.134 Oct 1981 |
10.792 Oct 1981 |
11.450 Oct 1981 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 May 1933 |
0.315 Oct 1961 |
1.768 Aug 1939 |
3.002 Aug 1939 |
4.145 Jan 1941 |
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.862 |
2.160 |
3.426 |
4.503 |
||
90% |
0.000 |
1.192 |
2.412 |
3.644 |
4.735 |
||
80% |
0.460 |
1.565 |
2.672 |
3.878 |
4.985 |
||
50% Median WR |
1.922 |
2.974 |
3.981 |
5.016 |
6.090 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.819 Oct 1981 |
9.476 Oct 1981 |
10.134 Oct 1981 |
10.792 Oct 1981 |
11.450 Oct 1981 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.933 Nov 2003 |
2.238 Nov 2003 |
3.543 Nov 2003 |
4.810 Apr 2004 |
6.035 Apr 2004 |
|
95% |
1.367 |
2.590 |
3.811 |
5.047 |
6.264 |
||
90% |
2.398 |
3.380 |
4.363 |
5.353 |
6.378 |
||
80% |
2.921 |
3.833 |
4.752 |
5.681 |
6.499 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.159 |
4.986 |
5.838 |
6.649 |
7.449 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.819 Oct 1981 |
9.476 Oct 1981 |
10.134 Oct 1981 |
10.792 Oct 1981 |
11.450 Oct 1981 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.14
|
74.80
|
55.51
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.17
|
64.78
|
49.22
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
77.60
|
54.39
|
40.26
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.71
|
65.53
|
47.67
|
35.47
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.145% |
0.00 |
79.28
|
52.71
|
41.32
|
29.74
|
4.50 % |
96.89
|
95% Succ. 4.690% |
3.11 |
63.47
|
46.98
|
33.35
|
24.27
|
5.00 % |
81.71
|
80% Succ. 5.067% |
18.29 |
53.33
|
40.76
|
28.06
|
17.36
|
5.50 % |
66.21
|
33.79 |
47.42
|
31.86
|
22.03
|
12.94
|
|
6.00 % |
54.45
|
50% Succ. 6.278% |
45.55 |
38.89
|
25.89
|
15.18
|
11.08
|
6.50 % |
45.61
|
54.39 |
31.74
|
19.66
|
11.64
|
8.84
|
|
7.00 % |
39.02
|
60.98 |
24.58
|
13.63
|
9.52
|
5.97
|
|
7.50 % |
30.37
|
69.63 |
17.42
|
10.45
|
7.03
|
4.17
|
|
8.00 % |
23.21
|
76.79 |
12.07
|
7.97
|
4.73
|
2.55
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.88
|
70.03
|
49.01
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.14
|
60.25
|
43.60
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
75.44
|
49.01
|
34.65
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.76
|
61.81
|
42.56
|
31.11
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.145% |
0.00 |
77.00
|
49.32
|
36.11
|
23.62
|
4.50 % |
95.01
|
95% Succ. 4.503% |
4.99 |
63.27
|
41.62
|
28.30
|
16.44
|
5.00 % |
79.50
|
20.50 |
50.78
|
35.59
|
21.54
|
10.30
|
|
5.50 % |
67.01
|
32.99 |
42.46
|
25.91
|
13.94
|
7.70
|
|
6.00 % |
52.76
|
50% Succ. 6.090% |
47.24 |
32.78
|
19.04
|
8.53
|
6.97
|
6.50 % |
39.75
|
60.25 |
26.74
|
11.97
|
6.97
|
4.68
|
|
7.00 % |
32.78
|
67.22 |
17.79
|
7.60
|
5.52
|
2.91
|
|
7.50 % |
25.60
|
74.40 |
10.41
|
6.66
|
3.54
|
1.87
|
|
8.00 % |
16.55
|
83.45 |
6.76
|
4.16
|
2.19
|
0.83
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.41
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.95
|
88.64
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.41
|
77.84
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.09
|
72.30
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.80
|
76.73
|
55.68
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.53
|
65.10
|
37.95
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.40
|
74.79
|
49.58
|
24.93
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
86.98
|
58.17
|
31.30
|
20.50
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.035% |
0.00 |
66.76
|
42.66
|
21.88
|
18.56
|
6.50 % |
79.50
|
20.50 |
53.19
|
26.04
|
18.56
|
12.47
|
|
7.00 % |
64.54
|
50% Succ. 7.449% |
35.46 |
38.23
|
20.22
|
14.68
|
7.76
|
7.50 % |
48.75
|
51.25 |
21.33
|
17.73
|
9.42
|
4.99
|
|
8.00 % |
30.47
|
69.53 |
18.01
|
11.08
|
5.82
|
2.22
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com