Total US Stock Market: a good asset for your retirement?

Last Update: 31 October 2023

Total US Stock Market is an asset class belonging to Stocks category.

You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.895% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

Considering the last 30-year (last update: October 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.182%.

In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

Total US Stock Market asset class

Over the last 30 years (last update: October 2023), the asset class has returned 9.51% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.84%.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at October 2023: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Oct 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Nov 2003
 31 Oct 2023 5.784 8.045 9.30
[ 6.55 ] 		-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
30 Years 1 Nov 1993
 31 Oct 2023 7.049 8.182 9.51
[ 6.81 ] 		-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
40 Years 1 Nov 1983
 31 Oct 2023 8.294 8.779 10.55
[ 7.51 ] 		-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
50 Years 1 Nov 1973
 31 Oct 2023 4.493 4.706 10.53
[ 6.39 ] 		-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
60 Years 1 Nov 1963
 31 Oct 2023 4.300 4.439 10.08
[ 5.93 ] 		-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
70 Years 1 Nov 1953
 31 Oct 2023 9.228 9.306 10.85
[ 7.06 ] 		-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Stock Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2023)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Total US Stock Market asset class?

▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Oct 2023).

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1901 		0.860
Jul 1901 		1.765
Sep 1929 		2.546
Sep 1929 		3.326
Sep 1929 		5.128 5.479 6.145 8.930
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		1.062
Jun 1902 		1.981
Jun 1902 		2.619
Sep 1929 		2.757
Sep 1929 		2.895
Sep 1929 		4.365 4.651 5.190 7.407
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.492
Sep 1929 		2.565
Sep 1929 		2.637
Sep 1929 		2.710
Sep 1929 		2.782
Sep 1929 		4.020 4.238 4.741 6.529
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.391
Sep 1929 		2.466
Sep 1929 		2.542
Sep 1929 		2.617
Sep 1929 		2.693
Sep 1929 		3.829 4.044 4.477 5.972
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.526
Sep 1929 		2.553
Sep 1929 		2.581
Sep 1929 		2.608
Sep 1929 		2.636
Sep 1929 		3.885 4.146 4.704 6.045
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.581
Sep 1929 		2.589
Sep 1929 		2.598
Sep 1929 		2.606
Sep 1929 		2.615
Sep 1929 		3.835 4.032 4.642 6.090
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: Nov 1923 - Oct 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.205
Sep 1929 		0.985
Sep 1929 		1.765
Sep 1929 		2.546
Sep 1929 		3.326
Sep 1929 		4.960 5.267 6.079 9.119
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.343
Sep 1929 		2.481
Sep 1929 		2.619
Sep 1929 		2.757
Sep 1929 		2.895
Sep 1929 		4.223 4.532 5.261 7.990
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.492
Sep 1929 		2.565
Sep 1929 		2.637
Sep 1929 		2.710
Sep 1929 		2.782
Sep 1929 		3.939 4.193 4.758 7.012
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.391
Sep 1929 		2.466
Sep 1929 		2.542
Sep 1929 		2.617
Sep 1929 		2.693
Sep 1929 		3.738 3.969 4.380 6.242
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.526
Sep 1929 		2.553
Sep 1929 		2.581
Sep 1929 		2.608
Sep 1929 		2.636
Sep 1929 		4.019 4.520 5.125 6.867
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.581
Sep 1929 		2.589
Sep 1929 		2.598
Sep 1929 		2.606
Sep 1929 		2.615
Sep 1929 		3.795 4.427 5.556 7.661
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: Nov 1973 - Oct 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.010
Apr 2000 		2.678
Apr 2000 		3.346
Apr 2000 		4.014
Apr 2000 		4.682
Apr 2000 		5.405 6.159 7.945 9.852
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		4.354
Nov 1973 		4.563
Nov 1973 		4.772
Nov 1973 		4.981
Nov 1973 		5.190
Nov 1973 		7.297 7.510 8.116 8.804
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Stock Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Total US Stock Market asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.895%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.782%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.693%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.636%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.615%
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.326%
99.93
99.85
99.76
99.73
99.60
3.50 %
99.87
99.53
99.41
98.79
95% Succ.
3.829%
98.57
95% Succ.
3.885%
98.39
95% Succ.
3.835%
4.00 %
99.75
98.58
95% Succ.
4.365%
95.28
95% Succ.
4.020%
91.50
90% Succ.
4.044%
93.18
90% Succ.
4.146%
90.95
90% Succ.
4.032%
4.50 %
98.93
93.02
90% Succ.
4.651%
84.06
80% Succ.
4.741%
79.60
84.48
80% Succ.
4.704%
82.71
80% Succ.
4.642%
5.00 %
96.24
95% Succ.
5.128%
83.59
80% Succ.
5.190%
75.13
69.64
73.99
73.37
5.50 %
89.72
76.27
67.75
58.14
50% Succ.
5.972%
61.79
62.11
6.00 %
82.01
80% Succ.
6.145%
70.58
58.15
49.55
51.12
50% Succ.
6.045%
52.16
50% Succ.
6.090%
6.50 %
75.86
64.27
50.41
50% Succ.
6.529%
40.57
41.97
43.62
7.00 %
72.23
57.42
50% Succ.
7.407%
42.29
34.66
36.14
38.59
7.50 %
68.71
48.68
36.53
29.47
31.66
32.96
8.00 %
62.57
41.97
31.22
23.81
23.23
23.12
Period: Nov 1923 - Oct 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.895%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.782%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.693%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.636%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.615%
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.326%
99.88
99.72
99.50
99.38
98.89
3.50 %
99.79
99.17
98.89
95% Succ.
3.939%
97.50
95% Succ.
3.738%
96.88
95.84
95% Succ.
3.795%
4.00 %
99.58
97.50
95% Succ.
4.223%
93.90
90% Succ.
4.193%
89.52
80% Succ.
4.380%
95.22
95% Succ.
4.019%
92.80
90% Succ.
4.427%
4.50 %
98.23
95% Succ.
4.960%
90.73
90% Succ.
4.532%
84.05
80% Succ.
4.758%
78.20
90.23
90% Succ.
4.520%
88.92
5.00 %
93.96
90% Succ.
5.267%
83.83
80% Succ.
5.261%
75.73
67.55
81.29
80% Succ.
5.125%
83.93
5.50 %
86.16
77.29
69.21
59.57
73.39
80.61
80% Succ.
5.556%
6.00 %
80.75
80% Succ.
6.079%
72.41
63.11
53.74
50% Succ.
6.242%
64.66
75.62
6.50 %
75.86
68.01
57.28
46.92
55.51
50% Succ.
6.867%
66.20
7.00 %
72.01
63.61
50.21
50% Succ.
7.012%
40.10
47.61
59.00
7.50 %
68.89
56.96
50% Succ.
7.990%
43.97
33.78
41.37
50.97
50% Succ.
7.661%
8.00 %
63.16
49.94
37.73
29.62
35.55
44.04
Period: Nov 1973 - Oct 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.682%
100.00
5.00 %
98.34
95% Succ.
5.405%
100.00
100% Succ.
5.190%
5.50 %
94.46
99.59
6.00 %
90.86
90% Succ.
6.159%
98.76
6.50 %
88.37
97.51
7.00 %
83.93
96.68
95% Succ.
7.297%
7.50 %
81.72
80% Succ.
7.945%
90.04
90% Succ.
7.510%
8.00 %
79.22
81.33
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Stock Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
Total US Stock Market Asset Class

For the Total US Stock Market Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com