Total US Bond Market: a good asset for your retirement?

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Total US Bond Market is an asset class belonging to Fixed Income category.

You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.461% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

Considering the last 30-year (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.144%.

In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

Total US Bond Market asset class

Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 4.32% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at April 2023: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 May 2003
 30 Apr 2023 0.528 5.858 3.02
[ 0.47 ] 		-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
30 Years 1 May 1993
 30 Apr 2023 2.100 5.144 4.32
[ 1.76 ] 		-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
40 Years 1 May 1983
 30 Apr 2023 4.048 5.811 5.96
[ 3.03 ] 		-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
50 Years 1 May 1973
 30 Apr 2023 2.399 3.465 6.44
[ 2.39 ] 		-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
60 Years 1 May 1963
 30 Apr 2023 1.834 2.617 6.01
[ 2.03 ] 		-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
70 Years 1 May 1953
 30 Apr 2023 1.760 2.370 5.56
[ 1.96 ] 		-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Total US Bond Market asset class?

▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Apr 2023).

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1897 		0.000
Jan 1899 		0.947
Aug 1939 		2.376
Aug 1939 		3.660
Feb 1941 		4.156 4.596 4.821 5.978
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1890 		0.000
Jun 1939 		0.753
May 1940 		1.637
Nov 1940 		2.461
Feb 1941 		2.810 3.049 3.461 4.052
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Nov 1938 		0.157
Sep 1941 		1.008
Aug 1941 		1.834
Feb 1941 		2.059 2.237 2.779 3.252
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1931 		0.226
Jun 1934 		0.748
Jun 1934 		1.202
Jun 1939 		1.513
Feb 1941 		1.717 1.791 2.368 2.815
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.629
Oct 1915 		0.844
Aug 1939 		1.026
Aug 1939 		1.207
Aug 1939 		1.384
Feb 1941 		1.534 1.614 2.077 2.451
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.257
Aug 1911 		0.654
May 1911 		1.044
May 1911 		1.183
Jun 1939 		1.307
Feb 1941 		1.433 1.498 1.831 2.141
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Apr 1932 		0.000
Sep 1938 		0.947
Aug 1939 		2.376
Aug 1939 		3.660
Feb 1941 		4.025 4.245 4.739 5.625
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Oct 1932 		0.000
Jun 1939 		0.753
May 1940 		1.637
Nov 1940 		2.461
Feb 1941 		2.696 2.825 3.198 3.807
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Nov 1938 		0.157
Sep 1941 		1.008
Aug 1941 		1.834
Feb 1941 		1.997 2.073 2.290 3.101
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1931 		0.226
Jun 1934 		0.748
Jun 1934 		1.202
Jun 1939 		1.513
Feb 1941 		1.595 1.716 1.791 2.675
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.663
Aug 1939 		0.844
Aug 1939 		1.026
Aug 1939 		1.207
Aug 1939 		1.384
Feb 1941 		1.434 1.524 1.591 2.263
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.805
Jun 1939 		0.931
Jun 1939 		1.057
Jun 1939 		1.183
Jun 1939 		1.307
Feb 1941 		1.339 1.390 1.466 1.866
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.423
Mar 2003 		1.797
Mar 2003 		3.171
Mar 2003 		4.526
May 2003 		5.317
May 1973 		5.961 6.138 6.308 7.149
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		2.048
Mar 1993 		2.826
Mar 1993 		3.591
May 1973 		3.957
May 1973 		4.322
May 1973 		4.809 5.006 5.144 5.867
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Total US Bond Market asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.461%
97.26
95% Succ.
2.059%
86.33
80% Succ.
2.368%
82.60
80% Succ.
2.077%
64.21
50% Succ.
2.141%
2.50 %
100.00
99.39
95% Succ.
2.810%
86.88
80% Succ.
2.779%
73.72
50% Succ.
2.815%
46.71
33.97
3.00 %
100.00
90.81
90% Succ.
3.049%
68.87
50% Succ.
3.252%
39.71
22.45
19.62
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.660%
77.88
42.62
19.53
15.24
12.64
4.00 %
97.36
95% Succ.
4.156%
51.53
50% Succ.
4.052%
28.91
12.94
9.92
7.58
4.50 %
92.20
90% Succ.
4.596%
43.98
19.27
7.49
6.04
5.86
5.00 %
72.18
38.33
13.86
5.45
4.69
4.65
5.50 %
54.69
50% Succ.
5.978%
26.75
9.79
4.23
3.25
2.43
6.00 %
49.72
17.63
7.26
3.09
1.26
0.20
6.50 %
42.98
12.87
5.78
1.71
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
34.93
8.85
3.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
26.81
6.13
1.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
18.57
3.88
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
2.461%
94.87
90% Succ.
2.073%
72.05
61.54
50% Succ.
2.263%
43.77
2.50 %
100.00
98.93
95% Succ.
2.696%
75.45
60.07
50% Succ.
2.675%
35.34
7.76
3.00 %
100.00
83.95
80% Succ.
3.198%
57.70
50% Succ.
3.101%
26.46
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.660%
71.11
50% Succ.
3.807%
35.78
3.16
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
95.63
95% Succ.
4.025%
46.85
21.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
87.83
80% Succ.
4.739%
38.76
10.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
70.76
34.96
7.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
53.28
50% Succ.
5.625%
21.64
6.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
46.51
11.53
4.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
37.98
8.09
3.61
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
30.59
5.71
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
23.20
3.21
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
13.11
2.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
100.00
100% Succ.
4.322%
4.50 %
100.00
96.68
95% Succ.
4.809%
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.317%
90.46
90% Succ.
5.006%
5.50 %
98.34
95% Succ.
5.961%
68.46
50% Succ.
5.867%
6.00 %
93.91
90% Succ.
6.138%
40.25
6.50 %
74.24
28.22
7.00 %
55.96
50% Succ.
7.149%
19.92
7.50 %
37.95
11.20
8.00 %
21.05
7.05
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
Total US Bond Market Asset Class

For the Total US Bond Market Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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