Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.929% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 62.16% of cases. In the 21.82% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.02% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.657%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 30 Years |
1 Apr 1994 |
31 Mar 2024 | 2.895 | 5.657 |
5.02 [ 2.42 ] |
-16.14 Sep 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jan 1940 |
0.620 May 1940 |
1.413 May 1940 |
2.190 Nov 1940 |
2.929 Jan 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.287 |
1.135 |
1.846 |
2.568 |
3.306 |
||
|
90% |
0.600 |
1.344 |
2.097 |
2.783 |
3.451 |
||
|
80% |
0.949 |
1.700 |
2.442 |
3.151 |
3.755 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.289 |
2.764 |
3.231 |
3.824 |
4.291 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.782 Apr 1873 |
8.194 Apr 1873 |
8.618 Mar 1873 |
9.044 Mar 1873 |
9.475 Feb 1873 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jan 1940 |
0.620 May 1940 |
1.413 May 1940 |
2.190 Nov 1940 |
2.929 Jan 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.128 |
0.912 |
1.648 |
2.393 |
3.138 |
||
|
90% |
0.360 |
1.160 |
1.897 |
2.606 |
3.330 |
||
|
80% |
0.702 |
1.408 |
2.193 |
2.975 |
3.680 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.102 |
2.617 |
3.136 |
3.566 |
4.143 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.664 Oct 1981 |
8.069 Oct 1981 |
8.474 Oct 1981 |
8.878 Oct 1981 |
9.283 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.418 Nov 1993 |
3.153 Nov 1993 |
3.888 Nov 1993 |
4.623 Nov 1993 |
4.973 Apr 1974 |
|
|
95% |
2.804 |
3.481 |
4.159 |
4.802 |
5.319 |
||
|
90% |
3.497 |
3.970 |
4.444 |
4.932 |
5.373 |
||
|
80% |
3.877 |
4.272 |
4.660 |
5.047 |
5.499 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.243 |
4.737 |
5.208 |
5.690 |
6.177 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.664 Oct 1981 |
8.069 Oct 1981 |
8.474 Oct 1981 |
8.878 Oct 1981 |
9.283 Oct 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.36
|
73.72
|
62.57
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.929% |
0.00 |
96.22
|
78.85
|
62.09
|
43.92
|
| 3.00 % |
98.99
|
95% Succ. 3.306% |
1.01 |
85.47
|
60.81
|
45.47
|
35.81
|
| 3.50 % |
89.12
|
80% Succ. 3.755% |
10.88 |
60.34
|
45.34
|
36.49
|
28.51
|
| 4.00 % |
62.16
|
50% Succ. 4.291% |
37.84 |
44.59
|
36.96
|
29.93
|
21.82
|
| 4.50 % |
47.50
|
52.50 |
40.00
|
32.36
|
21.76
|
13.85
|
|
| 5.00 % |
42.09
|
57.91 |
32.36
|
22.57
|
14.59
|
10.95
|
|
| 5.50 % |
32.84
|
67.16 |
23.58
|
14.80
|
10.81
|
9.12
|
|
| 6.00 % |
25.27
|
74.73 |
14.86
|
10.88
|
8.65
|
6.15
|
|
| 6.50 % |
14.80
|
85.20 |
11.01
|
8.58
|
6.08
|
4.39
|
|
| 7.00 % |
11.28
|
88.72 |
8.31
|
5.81
|
3.99
|
2.50
|
|
| 7.50 % |
8.04
|
91.96 |
5.54
|
3.65
|
2.09
|
0.81
|
|
| 8.00 % |
5.27
|
94.73 |
3.31
|
1.89
|
0.47
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
86.56
|
66.94
|
54.46
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.929% |
0.00 |
93.34
|
71.46
|
53.98
|
41.38
|
| 3.00 % |
98.22
|
95% Succ. 3.138% |
1.78 |
79.79
|
53.27
|
43.88
|
32.82
|
| 3.50 % |
84.07
|
80% Succ. 3.680% |
15.93 |
52.44
|
43.88
|
33.41
|
25.68
|
| 4.00 % |
58.03
|
50% Succ. 4.143% |
41.97 |
42.09
|
33.65
|
25.92
|
19.50
|
| 4.50 % |
42.93
|
57.07 |
36.98
|
28.66
|
18.43
|
10.46
|
|
| 5.00 % |
37.57
|
62.43 |
28.30
|
18.43
|
10.46
|
8.44
|
|
| 5.50 % |
28.18
|
71.82 |
17.84
|
9.99
|
8.09
|
7.25
|
|
| 6.00 % |
18.91
|
81.09 |
9.75
|
7.97
|
6.42
|
3.80
|
|
| 6.50 % |
9.39
|
90.61 |
7.97
|
5.71
|
3.69
|
2.50
|
|
| 7.00 % |
7.97
|
92.03 |
5.23
|
3.33
|
2.14
|
0.83
|
|
| 7.50 % |
4.76
|
95.24 |
3.33
|
1.90
|
0.59
|
0.24
|
|
| 8.00 % |
2.85
|
97.15 |
1.78
|
0.59
|
0.24
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.17
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.12
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.61
|
89.63
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.34
|
89.63
|
68.05
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.973% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.80
|
64.32
|
36.51
|
| 5.00 % |
99.59
|
95% Succ. 5.319% |
0.41 |
84.65
|
64.32
|
36.51
|
29.46
|
| 5.50 % |
79.67
|
20.33 |
62.24
|
34.85
|
28.22
|
25.31
|
|
| 6.00 % |
60.17
|
50% Succ. 6.177% |
39.83 |
34.02
|
27.80
|
22.41
|
13.28
|
| 6.50 % |
32.78
|
67.22 |
27.80
|
19.92
|
12.86
|
8.71
|
|
| 7.00 % |
27.80
|
72.20 |
18.26
|
11.62
|
7.47
|
2.90
|
|
| 7.50 % |
16.60
|
83.40 |
11.62
|
6.64
|
2.07
|
0.83
|
|
| 8.00 % |
9.96
|
90.04 |
6.22
|
2.07
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
