Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Gold Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the Gold Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.8% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -61.78%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.262%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.764 | 2.262 |
5.80 [ 2.19 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gold Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1875 |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.000 Oct 1885 |
0.162 Jul 1897 |
0.710 Jul 1897 |
0.781 95% Succ. |
0.851 90% Succ. |
0.942 80% Succ. |
1.149 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
0.251 |
0.537 |
0.725 |
0.922 |
1.149 | |||||
Average |
0.418 |
0.558 |
0.739 |
1.006 |
1.311 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
1.764 May 1953 |
1.889 May 1953 |
2.013 May 1953 |
2.171 Jun 1920 |
2.383 Jun 1920 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.251 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.537 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.012 |
0.725 |
|
25% |
0.162 |
0.244 |
0.319 |
0.521 |
0.922 |
|
0% |
0.710 |
0.781 |
0.851 |
0.942 |
1.149 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Mar 1933 |
0.302 Apr 1933 |
0.661 Apr 1933 |
0.992 May 1934 |
1.020 95% Succ. |
1.037 90% Succ. |
1.067 80% Succ. |
1.567 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
0.762 |
0.934 |
1.091 |
1.358 |
1.567 | |||||
Average |
0.725 |
0.922 |
1.138 |
1.355 |
1.571 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
1.764 May 1953 |
1.889 May 1953 |
2.013 May 1953 |
2.137 May 1953 |
2.262 May 1953 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.100 |
0.251 |
0.762 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.127 |
0.330 |
0.572 |
0.934 |
|
50% |
0.302 |
0.423 |
0.560 |
0.740 |
1.091 |
|
25% |
0.661 |
0.723 |
0.790 |
0.898 |
1.358 |
|
0% |
0.992 |
1.020 |
1.037 |
1.067 |
1.567 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
13.75
|
86.25 |
13.75
|
1.52
|
0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
2.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
29.92
|
70.08 |
29.92
|
1.11
|
0.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
2.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Gold Portfolio
For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com