Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Gold Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 0.71% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 0% of cases. In the 0% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the Gold Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.24% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -61.78%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.345%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 70 Years |
1 Dec 1954 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.947 | 2.345 |
6.24 [ 2.57 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gold Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jul 1875 |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.000 Oct 1885 |
0.162 Jul 1897 |
0.710 Jul 1897 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.245 |
0.781 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.326 |
0.851 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.017 |
0.526 |
0.943 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
0.264 |
0.553 |
0.732 |
0.927 |
1.167 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
1.963 Nov 1954 |
2.060 Nov 1954 |
2.157 Nov 1954 |
2.253 Nov 1954 |
2.383 Jun 1920 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Mar 1933 |
0.302 Apr 1933 |
0.661 Apr 1933 |
0.992 May 1934 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.127 |
0.423 |
0.723 |
1.020 |
||
|
90% |
0.100 |
0.330 |
0.560 |
0.790 |
1.037 |
||
|
80% |
0.251 |
0.572 |
0.740 |
0.898 |
1.067 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
0.762 |
0.934 |
1.091 |
1.358 |
1.567 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
1.963 Nov 1954 |
2.060 Nov 1954 |
2.157 Nov 1954 |
2.253 Nov 1954 |
2.350 Nov 1954 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
15.38
|
84.62 |
3.37
|
2.08
|
0.69
|
0.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
30.19
|
69.81 |
6.37
|
5.82
|
1.94
|
0.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Gold Portfolio
For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
