Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Gold Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.59% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 22.97% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 10 years of the Gold Portfolio
Over the last 10 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.23% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.76%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 10.189%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Apr 2014 |
31 Mar 2024 | 2.097 | 10.189 |
5.23 [ 2.33 ] |
-20.76 Jul 2014 - Dec 2015 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gold Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jan 1879 |
0.000 Jun 1896 |
0.000 Jun 1910 |
1.266 Jul 1980 |
4.590 Feb 1980 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.651 |
3.808 |
6.906 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.066 |
4.453 |
7.476 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.274 |
5.161 |
8.100 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
0.000 |
1.581 |
4.225 |
6.862 |
9.410 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
20.482 Jan 1971 |
21.297 Jan 1971 |
22.567 Sep 1971 |
23.998 Jan 1972 |
25.602 Jan 1972 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1936 |
0.000 Jan 1980 |
1.266 Jul 1980 |
4.590 Feb 1980 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.615 |
4.087 |
7.240 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.557 |
4.640 |
7.550 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.227 |
5.149 |
8.000 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
0.000 |
1.354 |
4.014 |
6.673 |
9.357 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
20.482 Jan 1971 |
21.297 Jan 1971 |
22.567 Sep 1971 |
23.998 Jan 1972 |
25.602 Jan 1972 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Nov 1974 |
0.000 Aug 1979 |
0.000 Jan 1980 |
1.266 Jul 1980 |
4.590 Feb 1980 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
3.244 |
6.635 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.526 |
4.009 |
7.189 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.450 |
4.598 |
7.528 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
0.005 |
2.350 |
4.656 |
6.984 |
9.620 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
14.481 Dec 2001 |
15.430 Dec 2001 |
16.411 Feb 2002 |
18.005 Jun 2005 |
20.417 Sep 2005 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.53
|
82.85
|
48.20
|
31.69
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.42
|
77.03
|
45.52
|
26.74
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.95
|
71.05
|
43.26
|
24.77
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.67
|
61.40
|
40.87
|
23.78
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.20
|
51.80
|
35.76
|
22.97
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
0.00 |
89.48
|
48.43
|
28.84
|
22.21
|
| 5.00 % |
99.53
|
0.47 |
83.14
|
45.06
|
25.64
|
21.28
|
|
| 5.50 % |
99.48
|
0.52 |
73.49
|
42.56
|
23.95
|
19.71
|
|
| 6.00 % |
99.30
|
0.70 |
68.08
|
38.08
|
23.37
|
18.08
|
|
| 6.50 % |
97.91
|
95% Succ. 6.906% |
2.09 |
55.64
|
32.15
|
22.33
|
16.05
|
| 7.00 % |
94.48
|
90% Succ. 7.476% |
5.52 |
48.20
|
27.15
|
20.81
|
13.72
|
| 7.50 % |
89.88
|
10.12 |
44.65
|
24.83
|
19.19
|
10.99
|
|
| 8.00 % |
82.09
|
17.91 |
41.51
|
22.97
|
16.45
|
9.48
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.26
|
82.98
|
47.27
|
39.50
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.07
|
74.84
|
44.77
|
37.56
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.33
|
69.10
|
43.94
|
36.36
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.95
|
60.04
|
42.18
|
35.80
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.65
|
50.23
|
40.61
|
34.97
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
0.00 |
91.21
|
46.90
|
38.48
|
34.04
|
| 5.00 % |
99.26
|
0.74 |
83.44
|
44.22
|
37.00
|
32.56
|
|
| 5.50 % |
99.17
|
0.83 |
70.68
|
42.55
|
35.89
|
30.80
|
|
| 6.00 % |
98.89
|
1.11 |
65.22
|
40.43
|
35.43
|
28.77
|
|
| 6.50 % |
98.15
|
1.85 |
55.41
|
38.85
|
34.41
|
25.53
|
|
| 7.00 % |
96.67
|
95% Succ. 7.240% |
3.33 |
45.98
|
37.65
|
32.93
|
21.83
|
| 7.50 % |
91.21
|
90% Succ. 7.550% |
8.79 |
43.29
|
36.54
|
30.53
|
17.48
|
| 8.00 % |
79.93
|
20.07 |
41.26
|
35.15
|
26.18
|
15.08
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.34
|
76.51
|
52.18
|
37.63
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.92
|
73.18
|
49.06
|
34.51
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.26
|
66.94
|
47.19
|
32.43
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.14
|
59.25
|
43.45
|
31.19
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
90.23
|
54.05
|
40.33
|
29.94
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
0.00 |
81.08
|
51.56
|
37.01
|
28.90
|
| 5.00 % |
98.34
|
1.66 |
74.84
|
47.82
|
33.68
|
27.65
|
|
| 5.50 % |
98.13
|
1.87 |
64.66
|
44.28
|
31.60
|
25.16
|
|
| 6.00 % |
97.51
|
2.49 |
60.08
|
41.37
|
31.39
|
22.66
|
|
| 6.50 % |
95.84
|
95% Succ. 6.635% |
4.16 |
54.47
|
37.84
|
29.94
|
20.17
|
| 7.00 % |
92.52
|
90% Succ. 7.189% |
7.48 |
49.90
|
35.76
|
28.27
|
18.30
|
| 7.50 % |
81.29
|
80% Succ. 7.528% |
18.71 |
45.95
|
34.30
|
26.20
|
17.05
|
| 8.00 % |
65.70
|
34.30 |
43.24
|
32.22
|
22.87
|
16.22
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Gold Portfolio
For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
