Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the Gold Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 0.887% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 0% of cases. In the 0% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 60 years of the Gold Portfolio
Over the last 60 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.37% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -61.78%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.655%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 60 Years |
1 Nov 1964 |
31 Oct 2024 | 3.136 | 3.655 |
7.37 [ 3.31 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gold Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 May 1892 |
0.306 Jul 1897 |
0.887 Jul 1897 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.413 |
0.993 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.472 |
1.059 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.030 |
0.573 |
1.138 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
0.106 |
0.432 |
0.747 |
1.086 |
1.425 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
3.136 Nov 1964 |
3.266 Nov 1964 |
3.396 Nov 1964 |
3.526 Nov 1964 |
3.655 Nov 1964 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Jan 1938 |
0.175 Apr 1941 |
0.683 Apr 1941 |
1.149 Apr 1934 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.317 |
0.763 |
1.183 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.422 |
0.826 |
1.200 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.279 |
0.582 |
0.895 |
1.242 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.315 |
1.526 |
1.717 |
1.901 |
2.074 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
3.136 Nov 1964 |
3.266 Nov 1964 |
3.396 Nov 1964 |
3.526 Nov 1964 |
3.655 Nov 1964 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
28.13
|
71.87 |
24.49
|
15.08
|
11.80
|
9.14
|
|
| 2.50 % |
10.74
|
89.26 |
8.34
|
7.19
|
5.32
|
4.08
|
|
| 3.00 % |
4.97
|
95.03 |
3.82
|
2.13
|
1.15
|
0.44
|
|
| 3.50 % |
1.24
|
98.76 |
0.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
52.18
|
50% Succ. 2.074% |
47.82 |
47.61
|
31.81
|
24.95
|
19.13
|
| 2.50 % |
24.53
|
75.47 |
19.54
|
16.84
|
12.47
|
9.56
|
|
| 3.00 % |
11.64
|
88.36 |
8.94
|
4.99
|
2.70
|
1.04
|
|
| 3.50 % |
2.91
|
97.09 |
0.21
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Gold Portfolio
For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
