Gold Portfolio: how to retire safely

Last Update: 31 March 2024

The Gold Portfolio invests in 1 asset class and is allocated for 0% on Stocks.

In the period Jan 1871 - Mar 2024, the portfolio granted a 2.98% annualized return, with a -61.78% maximum drawdown.

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.062% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 32.91% of cases, and for 50 years in the 7.34% of cases .

In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Gold Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.

You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

The Gold Portfolio

The Gold Portfolio contains 100% Commodities.

Weight Asset Class Category
100.00 % Gold Commodities

Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.69% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -42.91%.

3.898% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at March 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Apr 2014
 31 Mar 2024 2.097 10.189 5.23
[ 2.33 ] 		-20.76
Jul 2014 - Dec 2015
20 Years 1 Apr 2004
 31 Mar 2024 6.442 9.838 8.19
[ 5.46 ] 		-42.91
Sep 2011 - Dec 2015
30 Years 1 Apr 1994
 31 Mar 2024 2.325 3.898 5.69
[ 3.07 ] 		-42.91
Sep 2011 - Dec 2015
40 Years 1 Apr 1984
 31 Mar 2024 0.858 2.032 4.24
[ 1.38 ] 		-48.26
Dec 1987 - Aug 1999
50 Years 1 Apr 1974
 31 Mar 2024 0.776 1.735 5.06
[ 1.19 ] 		-61.78
Oct 1980 - Aug 1999
60 Years 1 Apr 1964
 31 Mar 2024 2.937 3.557 7.00
[ 2.95 ] 		-61.78
Oct 1980 - Aug 1999
70 Years 1 Apr 1954
 31 Mar 2024 1.860 2.324 5.98
[ 2.33 ] 		-61.78
Oct 1980 - Aug 1999
80 Years 1 Apr 1944
 31 Mar 2024 0.853 1.250 5.17
[ 1.44 ] 		-61.78
Oct 1980 - Aug 1999
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.

Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?

▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1974 - Mar 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1879 		0.000
Jun 1896 		0.000
Jun 1910 		1.266
Jul 1980 		4.590
Feb 1980 		6.906 7.476 8.100 9.410
20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Dec 1884 		0.000
May 1890 		0.000
Jun 1897 		0.000
Feb 1980 		1.726
Feb 1980 		3.109 3.256 3.458 4.948
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jun 1878 		0.000
May 1886 		0.000
Feb 1889 		0.539
Jul 1897 		1.062
Feb 1980 		1.902 2.034 2.133 3.164
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jun 1875 		0.000
Sep 1877 		0.000
Jan 1879 		0.579
Feb 1980 		0.912
Feb 1980 		1.424 1.497 1.696 2.368
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
Jun 1878 		0.630
Sep 1896 		1.107
Jul 1897 		1.242 1.328 1.378 1.810
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
May 1892 		0.306
Jul 1897 		0.887
Jul 1897 		0.993 1.058 1.138 1.423
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jul 1875 		0.000
Jun 1878 		0.000
Oct 1885 		0.162
Jul 1897 		0.710
Jul 1897 		0.781 0.851 0.942 1.157
80 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1871 		0.000
Jul 1873 		0.000
Jul 1878 		0.203
Mar 1890 		0.611
Jul 1897 		0.657 0.737 0.810 1.003
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Nov 1936 		0.000
Jan 1980 		1.266
Jul 1980 		4.590
Feb 1980 		7.240 7.550 8.000 9.357
20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Apr 1932 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Feb 1934 		0.000
Feb 1980 		1.726
Feb 1980 		2.924 3.247 3.494 5.014
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1929 		0.000
Nov 1932 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.602
Aug 1940 		1.062
Feb 1980 		1.898 2.034 2.140 3.384
40 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Apr 1924 		0.000
Jul 1930 		0.247
Feb 1980 		0.579
Feb 1980 		0.912
Feb 1980 		1.464 1.498 1.765 2.887
50 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Dec 1947 		0.339
Sep 1949 		0.699
Mar 1935 		1.009
Mar 1935 		1.277
Feb 1934 		1.331 1.370 1.635 2.550
60 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Jan 1938 		0.175
Apr 1941 		0.683
Apr 1941 		1.149
Apr 1934 		1.183 1.200 1.242 2.074
70 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Mar 1933 		0.302
Apr 1933 		0.661
Apr 1933 		0.992
May 1934 		1.020 1.037 1.067 1.567
80 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.395
Jan 1936 		0.539
Jan 1936 		0.682
Dec 1934 		0.808
Feb 1934 		0.928
Feb 1934 		0.949 0.965 0.995 1.220
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 10 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Nov 1974 		0.000
Aug 1979 		0.000
Jan 1980 		1.266
Jul 1980 		4.590
Feb 1980 		6.635 7.189 7.528 9.620
20 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Apr 1974 		0.000
Apr 1974 		0.000
Nov 1978 		0.000
Feb 1980 		1.726
Feb 1980 		2.472 2.835 3.218 4.917
30 Years
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Apr 1974 		0.000
Apr 1974 		0.146
Feb 1980 		0.604
Feb 1980 		1.062
Feb 1980 		1.439 1.913 2.274 2.871
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1974 - Mar 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
99.44
91.35
90% Succ.
2.034%
57.57
50% Succ.
2.368%
43.71
27.68
14.70
1.25
2.50 %
100.00
98.81
66.96
46.03
27.26
10.18
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
100.00
96.25
95% Succ.
3.109%
53.31
50% Succ.
3.164%
34.19
14.92
4.38
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
100.00
78.31
43.45
16.25
10.73
0.63
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
100.00
61.69
32.91
10.74
7.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.590%
56.19
50% Succ.
4.948%
23.24
6.76
4.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
99.53
49.00
10.68
3.82
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
99.48
39.44
8.51
2.28
2.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
99.30
33.19
6.28
1.91
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
97.91
95% Succ.
6.906%
26.63
5.00
1.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
94.48
90% Succ.
7.476%
20.44
3.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
89.88
16.88
2.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
82.09
12.81
1.76
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
40 Years
40 Years
50 Years
50 Years
60 Years
60 Years
70 Years
70 Years
80 Years
80 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
99.06
90.73
90% Succ.
2.034%
70.32
68.89
52.18
50% Succ.
2.074%
30.19
0.00
2.50 %
100.00
98.02
95% Succ.
2.924%
69.44
57.56
50% Succ.
2.887%
52.58
50% Succ.
2.550%
23.08
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
100.00
94.28
90% Succ.
3.247%
57.67
50% Succ.
3.384%
48.13
30.78
10.19
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
100.00
79.71
49.23
28.29
22.13
1.46
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
100.00
63.27
38.88
20.25
15.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.590%
57.54
31.27
12.76
8.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
99.26
50.47
50% Succ.
5.014%
17.24
7.21
5.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
99.17
43.18
14.74
4.30
4.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
98.89
39.13
11.06
3.61
0.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
98.15
36.32
8.80
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
96.67
95% Succ.
7.240%
32.15
5.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
91.21
90% Succ.
7.550%
27.89
3.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
79.93
21.33
3.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
10 Years
10 Years
20 Years
20 Years
30 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
97.51
95% Succ.
2.472%
87.55
80% Succ.
2.274%
2.50 %
100.00
94.74
90% Succ.
2.835%
67.22
50% Succ.
2.871%
3.00 %
100.00
84.76
80% Succ.
3.218%
42.32
3.50 %
100.00
75.90
24.48
4.00 %
100.00
63.71
8.30
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.590%
56.79
50% Succ.
4.917%
0.41
5.00 %
98.34
47.92
0.00
5.50 %
98.13
34.63
0.00
6.00 %
97.51
31.58
0.00
6.50 %
95.84
95% Succ.
6.635%
27.98
0.00
7.00 %
92.52
90% Succ.
7.189%
23.82
0.00
7.50 %
81.29
80% Succ.
7.528%
22.16
0.00
8.00 %
65.70
19.94
0.00
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Related Pages

For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com