Gold Portfolio: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2024

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Gold Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.062% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 33.06% of cases. In the 0.13% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 30 years of the Gold Portfolio

Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.37% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -42.91%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.09%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Nov 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 Dec 1994
 30 Nov 2024 2.738 4.090 6.37
[ 3.76 ] 		-42.91
Sep 2011 - Dec 2015
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at November 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gold Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jun 1878 		0.000
May 1886 		0.000
Feb 1889 		0.539
Jul 1897 		1.062
Feb 1980
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.739
 1.902
90%
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.895
 2.036
80%
 0.000
 0.000
 0.486
 1.328
 2.136
50%
Median WR 		0.370
 1.090
 1.766
 2.479
 3.174
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		4.154
Mar 1970 		5.335
Jul 1970 		6.571
Jul 1970 		7.843
Aug 1970 		9.131
Aug 1970
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
May 1929 		0.000
Nov 1932 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.602
Aug 1940 		1.062
Feb 1980
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.856
 1.898
90%
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.897
 2.034
80%
 0.000
 0.248
 1.092
 1.664
 2.140
50%
Median WR 		0.906
 1.514
 2.280
 2.880
 3.384
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		4.154
Mar 1970 		5.335
Jul 1970 		6.571
Jul 1970 		7.843
Aug 1970 		9.131
Aug 1970
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Dec 1974 		0.000
Dec 1974 		0.146
Feb 1980 		0.604
Feb 1980 		1.062
Feb 1980
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 0.547
 0.993
 1.439
90%
 0.000
 0.336
 0.811
 1.538
 1.913
80%
 0.417
 0.888
 1.337
 1.777
 2.274
50%
Median WR 		0.915
 1.448
 1.952
 2.421
 2.904
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		2.763
Nov 1994 		3.091
Nov 1994 		3.503
Mar 1993 		4.047
Sep 1976 		4.756
Sep 1976
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at November 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
91.40
90% Succ.
2.036% 		8.60
58.87
45.03
26.81
20.97
2.50 %
67.14
32.86
49.46
32.66
19.56
13.17
3.00 %
53.56
50% Succ.
3.174% 		46.44
38.71
20.43
13.24
6.59
3.50 %
43.75
56.25
29.30
13.37
7.66
2.02
4.00 %
33.06
66.94
13.98
9.21
4.77
0.13
4.50 %
23.12
76.88
9.95
6.38
1.41
0.00
5.00 %
10.62
89.38
7.26
3.70
0.67
0.00
5.50 %
8.47
91.53
5.51
1.55
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
6.25
93.75
3.49
1.01
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
4.97
95.03
1.81
0.20
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
3.36
96.64
1.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
2.02
97.98
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
1.75
98.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
90.73
90% Succ.
2.034% 		9.27
68.25
56.24
40.07
36.39
2.50 %
69.44
30.56
58.03
43.76
32.94
23.31
3.00 %
57.67
50% Succ.
3.384% 		42.33
46.49
32.34
23.07
11.65
3.50 %
49.23
50.77
38.76
22.35
13.56
3.57
4.00 %
38.53
61.47
22.71
16.29
8.44
0.24
4.50 %
30.32
69.68
16.88
11.30
2.50
0.00
5.00 %
17.24
82.76
12.84
6.54
1.19
0.00
5.50 %
14.74
85.26
9.75
2.73
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
11.06
88.94
6.18
1.78
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
8.80
91.20
3.21
0.36
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
5.95
94.05
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
3.57
96.43
1.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
3.09
96.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
87.55
80% Succ.
2.274% 		12.45
66.39
45.23
24.90
19.50
2.50 %
68.05
50% Succ.
2.904% 		31.95
45.23
25.31
16.60
4.15
3.00 %
45.64
54.36
25.31
14.11
2.07
0.00
3.50 %
27.80
72.20
12.86
0.41
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
10.37
89.63
0.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.41
99.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at November 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Gold Portfolio

For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com