Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the Gold Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 50 years of the Gold Portfolio
Over the last 50 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.2% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -61.78%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.984%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
50 Years |
1 May 1973 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.959 | 2.984 |
6.20 [ 2.16 ] |
-61.78 Oct 1980 - Aug 1999 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gold Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jun 1878 |
0.630 Sep 1896 |
1.107 Jul 1897 |
1.238 95% Succ. |
1.327 90% Succ. |
1.377 80% Succ. |
1.803 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
0.003 |
0.479 |
0.851 |
1.259 |
1.803 | |||||
Average |
0.758 |
0.948 |
1.246 |
1.702 |
2.159 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.324 Aug 1970 |
5.517 Aug 1970 |
5.711 Aug 1970 |
5.904 Aug 1970 |
6.098 Aug 1970 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.003 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.479 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.070 |
0.126 |
0.194 |
0.851 |
|
25% |
0.630 |
0.709 |
0.740 |
0.812 |
1.259 |
|
0% |
1.107 |
1.238 |
1.327 |
1.377 |
1.803 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1947 |
0.339 Sep 1949 |
0.699 Mar 1935 |
1.009 Mar 1935 |
1.277 Feb 1934 |
1.331 95% Succ. |
1.370 90% Succ. |
1.635 80% Succ. |
2.544 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.294 |
1.592 |
1.916 |
2.238 |
2.544 | |||||
Average |
1.531 |
1.820 |
2.113 |
2.406 |
2.698 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.324 Aug 1970 |
5.517 Aug 1970 |
5.711 Aug 1970 |
5.904 Aug 1970 |
6.098 Aug 1970 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.038 |
0.121 |
0.242 |
1.294 |
75% |
0.339 |
0.473 |
0.507 |
0.577 |
1.592 |
|
50% |
0.699 |
0.789 |
0.837 |
0.959 |
1.916 |
|
25% |
1.009 |
1.060 |
1.111 |
1.273 |
2.238 |
|
0% |
1.277 |
1.331 |
1.370 |
1.635 |
2.544 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
43.37
|
56.63 |
43.37
|
29.21
|
21.48
|
17.82
|
16.19
|
|
2.50 % |
27.10
|
72.90 |
27.10
|
16.92
|
14.97
|
13.43
|
12.29
|
|
3.00 % |
15.05
|
84.95 |
15.05
|
12.77
|
11.80
|
11.07
|
9.03
|
|
3.50 % |
10.82
|
89.18 |
10.82
|
9.85
|
7.40
|
6.02
|
4.15
|
|
4.00 % |
7.40
|
92.60 |
7.40
|
6.02
|
4.23
|
3.01
|
2.52
|
|
4.50 % |
4.23
|
95.77 |
4.23
|
3.01
|
2.52
|
2.12
|
2.12
|
|
5.00 % |
2.52
|
97.48 |
2.52
|
2.12
|
2.12
|
1.63
|
0.73
|
|
5.50 % |
2.12
|
97.88 |
2.12
|
1.63
|
0.73
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.41
|
99.59 |
0.41
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
69.22
|
30.78 |
69.22
|
58.40
|
43.93
|
36.44
|
33.11
|
|
2.50 % |
51.75
|
50% Succ. 2.544% |
48.25 |
51.75
|
34.61
|
30.62
|
27.45
|
25.12
|
3.00 % |
30.78
|
69.22 |
30.78
|
26.12
|
24.13
|
22.63
|
18.47
|
|
3.50 % |
22.13
|
77.87 |
22.13
|
20.13
|
15.14
|
12.31
|
8.49
|
|
4.00 % |
15.14
|
84.86 |
15.14
|
12.31
|
8.65
|
6.16
|
5.16
|
|
4.50 % |
8.65
|
91.35 |
8.65
|
6.16
|
5.16
|
4.33
|
4.33
|
|
5.00 % |
5.16
|
94.84 |
5.16
|
4.33
|
4.33
|
3.33
|
1.50
|
|
5.50 % |
4.33
|
95.67 |
4.33
|
3.33
|
1.50
|
0.17
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.83
|
99.17 |
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Gold Portfolio
For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com