Last Update: 28 February 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Gold Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Gold Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.23% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -42.91%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 10.893%.
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Mar 2003 |
28 Feb 2023 | 7.230 | 10.893 |
8.23 [ 5.60 ] |
-42.91 Sep 2011 - Dec 2015 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gold Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1884 |
0.000 May 1890 |
0.000 Jun 1897 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
3.107 95% Succ. |
3.254 90% Succ. |
3.455 80% Succ. |
4.938 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
0.606 |
1.537 |
2.656 |
3.855 |
4.938 | |||||
Average |
1.720 |
2.270 |
3.013 |
4.180 |
5.413 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.171 Oct 1970 |
11.260 Oct 1970 |
12.350 Oct 1970 |
13.439 Oct 1970 |
14.584 Jan 1971 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.606 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.537 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.241 |
2.656 |
|
25% |
0.000 |
1.524 |
1.636 |
1.865 |
3.855 |
|
0% |
1.726 |
3.107 |
3.254 |
3.455 |
4.938 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Feb 1934 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
2.924 95% Succ. |
3.247 90% Succ. |
3.494 80% Succ. |
5.014 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.814 |
2.703 |
3.562 |
4.227 |
5.014 | |||||
Average |
2.310 |
2.858 |
3.566 |
4.674 |
5.849 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.171 Oct 1970 |
11.260 Oct 1970 |
12.350 Oct 1970 |
13.439 Oct 1970 |
14.584 Jan 1971 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.814 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.703 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.004 |
0.276 |
3.562 |
|
25% |
0.000 |
1.490 |
1.704 |
1.892 |
4.227 |
|
0% |
1.726 |
2.924 |
3.247 |
3.494 |
5.014 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1973 |
0.000 Apr 1974 |
0.000 Nov 1978 |
0.000 Feb 1980 |
1.726 Feb 1980 |
2.472 95% Succ. |
2.835 90% Succ. |
3.218 80% Succ. |
4.916 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
0.775 |
1.901 |
2.940 |
3.952 |
4.916 | |||||
Average |
2.060 |
2.585 |
3.338 |
4.306 |
5.443 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.146 Aug 2001 |
9.876 Aug 2001 |
10.607 Aug 2001 |
11.338 Aug 2001 |
12.068 Aug 2001 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.775 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.901 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.785 |
2.940 |
|
25% |
0.000 |
0.557 |
1.195 |
2.047 |
3.952 |
|
0% |
1.726 |
2.472 |
2.835 |
3.218 |
4.916 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
99.43
|
0.57 |
99.43
|
73.35
|
57.03
|
46.69
|
36.93
|
|
2.50 % |
98.80
|
1.20 |
98.80
|
65.78
|
51.23
|
41.71
|
28.29
|
|
3.00 % |
96.22
|
95% Succ. 3.107% |
3.78 |
96.22
|
58.98
|
47.76
|
34.72
|
21.24
|
3.50 % |
78.13
|
21.87 |
78.13
|
54.19
|
42.16
|
26.65
|
16.76
|
|
4.00 % |
61.37
|
38.63 |
61.37
|
48.08
|
32.51
|
20.23
|
14.68
|
|
4.50 % |
55.83
|
50% Succ. 4.938% |
44.17 |
55.83
|
40.52
|
24.64
|
16.01
|
13.42
|
5.00 % |
48.58
|
51.42 |
48.58
|
32.14
|
21.36
|
14.05
|
10.71
|
|
5.50 % |
38.94
|
61.06 |
38.94
|
24.95
|
14.87
|
11.22
|
8.00
|
|
6.00 % |
32.64
|
67.36 |
32.64
|
20.10
|
11.91
|
8.44
|
7.18
|
|
6.50 % |
26.02
|
73.98 |
26.02
|
16.45
|
9.58
|
7.56
|
6.30
|
|
7.00 % |
19.79
|
80.21 |
19.79
|
10.65
|
8.25
|
6.93
|
5.10
|
|
7.50 % |
16.19
|
83.81 |
16.19
|
9.01
|
7.25
|
5.80
|
3.84
|
|
8.00 % |
12.10
|
87.90 |
12.10
|
8.25
|
6.36
|
4.54
|
3.09
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
99.06
|
0.94 |
99.06
|
74.71
|
60.15
|
54.42
|
49.12
|
|
2.50 % |
98.02
|
95% Succ. 2.924% |
1.98 |
98.02
|
65.76
|
57.86
|
51.51
|
40.79
|
3.00 % |
94.28
|
90% Succ. 3.247% |
5.72 |
94.28
|
61.71
|
55.46
|
45.79
|
31.53
|
3.50 % |
79.71
|
20.29 |
79.71
|
58.17
|
50.68
|
38.40
|
25.60
|
|
4.00 % |
63.27
|
36.73 |
63.27
|
54.63
|
41.21
|
30.39
|
23.10
|
|
4.50 % |
57.54
|
42.46 |
57.54
|
46.31
|
35.90
|
24.77
|
21.96
|
|
5.00 % |
50.47
|
50% Succ. 5.014% |
49.53 |
50.47
|
39.96
|
32.78
|
22.48
|
17.69
|
5.50 % |
43.18
|
56.82 |
43.18
|
36.11
|
23.41
|
18.52
|
13.22
|
|
6.00 % |
39.13
|
60.87 |
39.13
|
31.53
|
19.46
|
13.94
|
11.86
|
|
6.50 % |
36.32
|
63.68 |
36.32
|
26.33
|
15.82
|
12.49
|
10.41
|
|
7.00 % |
31.43
|
68.57 |
31.43
|
17.59
|
13.63
|
11.45
|
8.43
|
|
7.50 % |
26.53
|
73.47 |
26.53
|
14.88
|
11.97
|
9.57
|
6.35
|
|
8.00 % |
19.98
|
80.02 |
19.98
|
13.63
|
10.51
|
7.49
|
5.10
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
97.51
|
95% Succ. 2.472% |
2.49 |
97.51
|
80.61
|
58.45
|
48.75
|
41.83
|
2.50 % |
94.74
|
90% Succ. 2.835% |
5.26 |
94.74
|
71.47
|
54.57
|
44.04
|
33.52
|
3.00 % |
84.76
|
80% Succ. 3.218% |
15.24 |
84.76
|
62.60
|
49.31
|
37.12
|
25.21
|
3.50 % |
75.90
|
24.10 |
75.90
|
55.40
|
44.32
|
26.59
|
20.78
|
|
4.00 % |
63.71
|
36.29 |
63.71
|
49.03
|
29.64
|
21.05
|
18.56
|
|
4.50 % |
56.79
|
50% Succ. 4.916% |
43.21 |
56.79
|
38.50
|
21.61
|
19.11
|
17.73
|
5.00 % |
47.65
|
52.35 |
47.65
|
27.42
|
19.94
|
18.01
|
15.79
|
|
5.50 % |
34.35
|
65.65 |
34.35
|
23.55
|
18.28
|
17.17
|
14.13
|
|
6.00 % |
30.75
|
69.25 |
30.75
|
20.22
|
17.73
|
14.40
|
12.19
|
|
6.50 % |
26.59
|
73.41 |
26.59
|
18.28
|
15.79
|
13.02
|
11.36
|
|
7.00 % |
21.88
|
78.12 |
21.88
|
17.17
|
14.13
|
11.91
|
10.25
|
|
7.50 % |
19.39
|
80.61 |
19.39
|
14.68
|
12.19
|
10.80
|
8.03
|
|
8.00 % |
16.62
|
83.38 |
16.62
|
13.30
|
11.08
|
9.14
|
6.37
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Gold Portfolio
For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com