Gold Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Gold Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.59% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 22.99% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the Gold Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 8.45% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -18.08%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 11.316%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Nov 2014
31 Oct 2024 4.638 11.316 8.45
[ 5.42 ]
-18.08
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gold Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gold Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Jan 1879
0.000
Jun 1896
0.000
Jun 1910
1.266
Jul 1980
4.590
Feb 1980
95%
0.000
0.000
0.651
3.808
6.906
90%
0.000
0.000
1.079
4.458
7.484
80%
0.000
0.000
2.282
5.171
8.103
50%
Median WR
0.000
1.661
4.262
6.891
9.412
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
20.482
Jan 1971
21.297
Jan 1971
22.567
Sep 1971
23.998
Jan 1972
25.602
Jan 1972
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Feb 1933
0.000
Nov 1936
0.000
Jan 1980
1.266
Jul 1980
4.590
Feb 1980
95%
0.000
0.000
0.615
4.087
7.240
90%
0.000
0.000
1.557
4.640
7.550
80%
0.000
0.000
2.227
5.149
8.000
50%
Median WR
0.000
1.354
4.014
6.673
9.357
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
20.482
Jan 1971
21.297
Jan 1971
22.567
Sep 1971
23.998
Jan 1972
25.602
Jan 1972
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Nov 1974
0.000
Aug 1979
0.000
Jan 1980
1.266
Jul 1980
4.590
Feb 1980
95%
0.000
0.000
0.000
3.244
6.635
90%
0.000
0.000
0.526
4.009
7.189
80%
0.000
0.000
1.450
4.598
7.528
50%
Median WR
0.005
2.350
4.656
6.984
9.621
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
14.481
Dec 2001
15.430
Dec 2001
16.411
Feb 2002
18.005
Jun 2005
20.417
Sep 2005
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gold Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.54
82.92
48.41
31.96
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.42
77.13
45.74
26.93
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.96
71.16
43.49
24.84
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.68
61.55
41.11
23.80
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
93.23
52.00
36.02
22.99
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.590%
0.00
89.52
48.64
29.01
22.18
5.00 %
99.54
0.46
83.21
45.28
25.65
21.19
5.50 %
99.48
0.52
73.60
42.79
23.97
19.63
6.00 %
99.31
0.69
68.21
38.33
23.34
18.01
6.50 %
97.92
95% Succ.
6.906%
2.08
55.82
32.31
22.24
15.98
7.00 %
94.50
90% Succ.
7.484%
5.50
48.41
27.16
20.73
13.67
7.50 %
89.92
10.08
44.88
24.84
19.11
10.94
8.00 %
82.17
17.83
41.69
22.87
16.39
9.44
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.26
82.98
47.27
39.50
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.07
74.84
44.77
37.37
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.33
69.10
43.94
35.99
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
96.95
60.04
42.18
35.34
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
95.65
50.23
40.61
34.51
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.590%
0.00
91.21
46.90
38.30
33.49
5.00 %
99.26
0.74
83.44
44.22
36.54
31.91
5.50 %
99.17
0.83
70.68
42.55
35.43
30.16
6.00 %
98.89
1.11
65.22
40.43
34.88
28.58
6.50 %
98.15
1.85
55.41
38.67
33.77
25.53
7.00 %
96.67
95% Succ.
7.240%
3.33
45.98
37.19
32.28
21.83
7.50 %
91.21
90% Succ.
7.550%
8.79
43.29
36.08
30.53
17.48
8.00 %
79.93
20.07
41.17
34.51
26.18
15.08
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.34
76.51
52.18
38.88
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.92
73.18
49.06
35.55
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
96.26
66.94
47.61
33.06
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
93.14
59.25
44.28
31.60
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
90.23
54.05
41.58
30.35
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.590%
0.00
81.08
51.56
37.84
29.11
5.00 %
98.34
1.66
74.84
48.02
34.10
27.65
5.50 %
98.13
1.87
64.66
44.70
32.02
25.16
6.00 %
97.51
2.49
60.08
42.20
31.60
22.66
6.50 %
95.84
95% Succ.
6.635%
4.16
54.47
38.67
29.94
20.17
7.00 %
92.52
90% Succ.
7.189%
7.48
49.90
36.17
28.27
18.30
7.50 %
81.29
80% Succ.
7.528%
18.71
46.36
34.72
26.20
17.05
8.00 %
65.70
34.30
43.45
32.22
22.87
16.22
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gold Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Gold Portfolio

For the Gold Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com