Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 80 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 80-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.593% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 80 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 80 years in the 45.27% of cases. In the 40.32% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 80 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Over the last 80 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 8.77% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.039%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 80 Years |
1 Dec 1944 |
30 Nov 2024 | 3.953 | 4.039 |
8.77 [ 4.92 ] |
-17.95 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 80-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.409 Jul 1901 |
2.455 Jul 1901 |
2.501 Jul 1901 |
2.547 Jul 1901 |
2.593 Jul 1901 |
|
|
95% |
2.657 |
2.696 |
2.732 |
2.762 |
2.806 |
||
|
90% |
2.802 |
2.843 |
2.888 |
2.928 |
2.967 |
||
|
80% |
2.961 |
2.998 |
3.030 |
3.073 |
3.115 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
3.705 |
3.737 |
3.780 |
3.804 |
3.828 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.116 Jun 1920 |
7.140 Jun 1920 |
7.165 Jun 1920 |
7.189 Jun 1920 |
7.213 Jun 1920 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.983 Feb 1937 |
3.005 Feb 1937 |
3.026 Feb 1937 |
3.048 Feb 1937 |
3.069 Feb 1937 |
|
|
95% |
3.222 |
3.243 |
3.265 |
3.286 |
3.308 |
||
|
90% |
3.445 |
3.467 |
3.489 |
3.511 |
3.533 |
||
|
80% |
3.610 |
3.633 |
3.655 |
3.678 |
3.700 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.070 |
4.094 |
4.117 |
4.135 |
4.155 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.875 Jul 1932 |
6.897 Jul 1932 |
6.919 Jul 1932 |
6.941 Jul 1932 |
6.962 Jul 1932 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 80 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 80-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 80 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.593% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.77
|
99.55
|
| 3.00 % |
88.06
|
80% Succ. 3.115% |
11.94 |
85.81
|
83.00
|
79.73
|
77.36
|
| 3.50 % |
60.02
|
50% Succ. 3.828% |
39.98 |
58.90
|
57.66
|
55.97
|
55.18
|
| 4.00 % |
45.27
|
54.73 |
44.82
|
43.36
|
41.89
|
40.32
|
|
| 4.50 % |
30.29
|
69.71 |
29.39
|
28.49
|
28.15
|
27.82
|
|
| 5.00 % |
22.97
|
77.03 |
22.64
|
22.41
|
22.18
|
21.51
|
|
| 5.50 % |
14.75
|
85.25 |
13.51
|
12.73
|
11.94
|
11.15
|
|
| 6.00 % |
4.84
|
95.16 |
4.28
|
3.94
|
3.49
|
3.15
|
|
| 6.50 % |
2.25
|
97.75 |
2.14
|
2.14
|
1.80
|
1.69
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.34
|
99.66 |
0.34
|
0.34
|
0.34
|
0.34
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 80 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.069% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.17
|
| 3.50 % |
90.46
|
90% Succ. 3.533% |
9.54 |
90.04
|
89.21
|
87.14
|
87.14
|
| 4.00 % |
61.41
|
50% Succ. 4.155% |
38.59 |
60.17
|
57.68
|
54.36
|
53.11
|
| 4.50 % |
34.44
|
65.56 |
33.61
|
32.78
|
31.95
|
31.12
|
|
| 5.00 % |
17.84
|
82.16 |
17.84
|
17.84
|
17.43
|
17.01
|
|
| 5.50 % |
4.56
|
95.44 |
4.56
|
4.15
|
3.73
|
3.73
|
|
| 6.00 % |
1.24
|
98.76 |
1.24
|
1.24
|
1.24
|
1.24
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.83
|
99.17 |
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio
For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
