Golden Butterfly Portfolio: 80-year retirement

Last Update: 31 March 2024

Do you have in mind a 80 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 80-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.593% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 80 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 80 years in the 44.77% of cases. In the 40.45% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 80 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Over the last 80 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 8.71% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.14%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Mar 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
80 Years 1 Apr 1944
 31 Mar 2024 4.047 4.140 8.71
[ 4.86 ] 		-17.95
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 80-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		2.409
Jul 1901 		2.455
Jul 1901 		2.501
Jul 1901 		2.547
Jul 1901 		2.593
Jul 1901
95%
 2.657
 2.696
 2.732
 2.762
 2.806
90%
 2.799
 2.842
 2.885
 2.927
 2.966
80%
 2.953
 2.992
 3.029
 3.072
 3.115
50%
Median WR 		3.684
 3.722
 3.743
 3.774
 3.792
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		7.116
Jun 1920 		7.140
Jun 1920 		7.165
Jun 1920 		7.189
Jun 1920 		7.213
Jun 1920
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		2.983
Feb 1937 		3.005
Feb 1937 		3.026
Feb 1937 		3.048
Feb 1937 		3.069
Feb 1937
95%
 3.222
 3.243
 3.265
 3.286
 3.308
90%
 3.445
 3.467
 3.489
 3.511
 3.533
80%
 3.610
 3.633
 3.655
 3.678
 3.700
50%
Median WR 		4.091
 4.115
 4.139
 4.162
 4.186
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		6.875
Jul 1932 		6.897
Jul 1932 		6.919
Jul 1932 		6.941
Jul 1932 		6.962
Jul 1932
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 80 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 80-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 80 Years
% Fail
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.593% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
99.77
99.55
3.00 %
87.95
80% Succ.
3.115% 		12.05
85.68
82.84
79.55
77.16
3.50 %
59.66
50% Succ.
3.792% 		40.34
58.52
57.27
55.57
54.77
4.00 %
44.77
55.23
44.32
43.41
42.05
40.45
4.50 %
30.57
69.43
29.66
28.75
28.41
28.07
5.00 %
23.18
76.82
22.84
22.61
22.39
21.70
5.50 %
14.89
85.11
13.64
12.84
12.05
11.25
6.00 %
4.89
95.11
4.32
3.98
3.52
3.18
6.50 %
2.27
97.73
2.16
2.16
1.82
1.70
7.00 %
0.34
99.66
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 80 Years
% Fail
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.069% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.17
3.50 %
90.46
90% Succ.
3.533% 		9.54
90.04
89.21
87.14
87.14
4.00 %
61.41
50% Succ.
4.186% 		38.59
60.17
59.75
56.85
55.60
4.50 %
37.76
62.24
36.93
36.10
35.27
34.44
5.00 %
21.16
78.84
21.16
21.16
20.75
20.33
5.50 %
7.88
92.12
7.47
6.64
5.81
5.39
6.00 %
1.24
98.76
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.24
6.50 %
0.83
99.17
0.83
0.83
0.83
0.83
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio

For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com