Golden Butterfly Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 31 December 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.667% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 63.33% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: December 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.35% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 11.639%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Dec 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Jan 2015
31 Dec 2024 3.186 11.639 6.35
[ 3.25 ]
-17.95
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at December 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Dec 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Dec 2024
Period: Jan 1925 - Dec 2024
Period: Jan 1975 - Dec 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Jan 1908
0.000
Feb 1909
1.676
Jul 1911
4.831
Jul 1911
7.667
Dec 1915
95%
0.233
2.207
4.253
6.708
9.252
90%
1.311
3.612
5.879
8.108
10.321
80%
2.446
4.621
6.774
9.025
11.241
50%
Median WR
4.860
6.782
8.702
10.610
12.546
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
11.633
Jul 1932
14.103
Jul 1932
16.572
Jul 1932
19.041
Jul 1932
21.511
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.233
Dec 1938
2.602
Dec 1936
4.920
Dec 1936
6.927
Feb 1946
8.754
Feb 1946
95%
1.799
3.952
6.100
8.225
10.365
90%
2.303
4.482
6.641
8.792
10.963
80%
3.069
5.288
7.462
9.552
11.625
50%
Median WR
5.086
6.953
8.834
10.732
12.639
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
11.633
Jul 1932
14.103
Jul 1932
16.572
Jul 1932
19.041
Jul 1932
21.511
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
2.208
Nov 2013
4.684
Nov 2013
7.159
Nov 2013
9.526
Jan 2015
11.495
Aug 1987
95%
3.403
5.620
7.812
9.889
12.011
90%
4.380
6.293
8.155
10.162
12.185
80%
4.944
6.806
8.676
10.545
12.456
50%
Median WR
5.787
7.639
9.467
11.274
13.074
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
10.668
Jul 1982
12.507
Jul 1982
14.346
Jul 1982
16.185
Jul 1982
18.024
Jul 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at December 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Dec 2024
Period: Jan 1925 - Dec 2024
Period: Jan 1975 - Dec 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.54
95.55
85.19
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.19
94.39
79.29
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.67
93.12
74.20
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.92
90.92
69.58
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.78
87.39
63.33
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.56
81.90
56.80
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.83
93.75
76.00
48.35
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.31
92.37
70.79
38.98
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
97.63
89.18
63.85
28.46
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
95.66
84.21
55.58
21.52
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
94.22
78.48
46.44
17.41
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.667%
0.00
93.12
72.82
35.34
13.07
8.00 %
99.31
0.69
90.92
63.85
25.91
8.16
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
92.97
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
86.96
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.98
80.94
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
97.13
75.39
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
94.91
68.92
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
89.64
62.35
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.72
83.16
51.90
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.96
76.87
40.06
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.47
69.20
27.01
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.86
60.78
18.96
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.91
85.38
49.40
14.06
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
98.70
79.46
35.34
8.70
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
96.58
69.10
23.96
5.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.58
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.51
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
94.39
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
91.89
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
88.57
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.58
78.17
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
95.63
63.62
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
91.89
42.41
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
86.90
29.73
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
75.05
21.41
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.13
55.30
11.23
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.68
36.59
4.57
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at December 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio

For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com