Last Update: 30 April 2025
Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.667% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 63.19% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 10 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Over the last 10 years (last update: April 2025), the portfolio has returned 6.42% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 11.859%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2025 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 May 2015 |
30 Apr 2025 | 3.258 | 11.859 |
6.42 [ 3.26 ] |
-17.95 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2025)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jan 1908 |
0.000 Feb 1909 |
1.676 Jul 1911 |
4.831 Jul 1911 |
7.667 Dec 1915 |
|
|
95% |
0.233 |
2.207 |
4.253 |
6.708 |
9.252 |
||
|
90% |
1.321 |
3.613 |
5.891 |
8.118 |
10.327 |
||
|
80% |
2.448 |
4.624 |
6.777 |
9.032 |
11.248 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.860 |
6.773 |
8.685 |
10.603 |
12.543 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.633 Jul 1932 |
14.103 Jul 1932 |
16.572 Jul 1932 |
19.041 Jul 1932 |
21.511 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.233 Dec 1938 |
2.602 Dec 1936 |
4.920 Dec 1936 |
6.927 Feb 1946 |
8.754 Feb 1946 |
|
|
95% |
1.799 |
3.952 |
6.100 |
8.225 |
10.365 |
||
|
90% |
2.303 |
4.482 |
6.641 |
8.792 |
10.963 |
||
|
80% |
3.066 |
5.269 |
7.440 |
9.530 |
11.620 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
5.065 |
6.947 |
8.824 |
10.726 |
12.628 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.633 Jul 1932 |
14.103 Jul 1932 |
16.572 Jul 1932 |
19.041 Jul 1932 |
21.511 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.208 Nov 2013 |
4.684 Nov 2013 |
7.159 Nov 2013 |
9.366 Feb 2015 |
11.465 Feb 2015 |
|
|
95% |
3.258 |
5.494 |
7.684 |
9.858 |
11.963 |
||
|
90% |
4.218 |
6.149 |
8.099 |
10.121 |
12.167 |
||
|
80% |
4.873 |
6.773 |
8.671 |
10.518 |
12.430 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
5.786 |
7.616 |
9.451 |
11.255 |
13.066 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
10.668 Jul 1982 |
12.507 Jul 1982 |
14.346 Jul 1982 |
16.185 Jul 1982 |
18.024 Jul 1982 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.54
|
95.56
|
85.23
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.19
|
94.40
|
79.34
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.67
|
93.13
|
74.26
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.92
|
90.94
|
69.42
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.79
|
87.42
|
63.19
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.58
|
81.94
|
56.66
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.83
|
93.77
|
76.05
|
48.24
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.31
|
92.38
|
70.63
|
38.89
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.63
|
89.21
|
63.70
|
28.39
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.67
|
84.25
|
55.45
|
21.47
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.23
|
78.53
|
46.34
|
17.37
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.667% |
0.00 |
93.13
|
72.71
|
35.26
|
13.04
|
| 8.00 % |
99.31
|
0.69 |
90.94
|
63.70
|
25.85
|
8.14
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.97
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
86.96
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.98
|
80.94
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.13
|
75.02
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.91
|
68.55
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.64
|
61.98
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.72
|
83.16
|
51.53
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.96
|
76.50
|
39.69
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.47
|
68.83
|
26.64
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.86
|
60.41
|
18.59
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.91
|
85.38
|
49.03
|
13.69
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.70
|
79.19
|
34.97
|
8.51
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.58
|
68.73
|
23.59
|
5.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.58
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.51
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.56
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.06
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
87.73
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.58
|
77.34
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.80
|
62.79
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.06
|
42.20
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
86.07
|
29.73
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
74.22
|
21.41
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.51
|
54.68
|
11.23
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.85
|
36.38
|
4.57
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio
For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
