Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.742% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 58.3% of cases. In the 50.8% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 60 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Over the last 60 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 9.27% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.834%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 60 Years |
1 Apr 1964 |
31 Mar 2024 | 4.595 | 4.834 |
9.27 [ 5.14 ] |
-17.95 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.340 Jul 1901 |
2.441 Jul 1901 |
2.541 Jul 1901 |
2.642 Jul 1901 |
2.742 Jul 1901 |
|
|
95% |
2.614 |
2.714 |
2.819 |
2.921 |
3.021 |
||
|
90% |
2.779 |
2.884 |
2.985 |
3.078 |
3.175 |
||
|
80% |
2.958 |
3.065 |
3.170 |
3.265 |
3.366 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.030 |
4.113 |
4.213 |
4.286 |
4.377 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.151 Jul 1920 |
7.234 Jun 1920 |
7.321 Jun 1920 |
7.409 Jun 1920 |
7.497 Jun 1920 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.908 Feb 1937 |
2.973 Feb 1937 |
3.038 Feb 1937 |
3.103 Feb 1937 |
3.168 Feb 1937 |
|
|
95% |
3.341 |
3.402 |
3.464 |
3.519 |
3.574 |
||
|
90% |
3.490 |
3.551 |
3.612 |
3.675 |
3.740 |
||
|
80% |
3.771 |
3.843 |
3.900 |
3.973 |
4.048 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.541 |
4.596 |
4.650 |
4.702 |
4.754 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.903 Jul 1932 |
6.979 Jul 1932 |
7.054 Jul 1932 |
7.130 Jul 1932 |
7.206 Jul 1932 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.742% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.82
|
98.66
|
| 3.00 % |
95.36
|
95% Succ. 3.021% |
4.64 |
93.04
|
89.11
|
83.30
|
78.30
|
| 3.50 % |
74.46
|
25.54 |
71.25
|
67.32
|
64.20
|
62.23
|
|
| 4.00 % |
58.30
|
50% Succ. 4.377% |
41.70 |
56.88
|
55.27
|
53.21
|
50.80
|
| 4.50 % |
46.96
|
53.04 |
43.84
|
41.79
|
39.73
|
37.68
|
|
| 5.00 % |
27.14
|
72.86 |
25.63
|
23.66
|
22.23
|
20.18
|
|
| 5.50 % |
16.96
|
83.04 |
14.82
|
12.77
|
10.89
|
9.29
|
|
| 6.00 % |
7.95
|
92.05 |
6.79
|
5.27
|
3.66
|
2.95
|
|
| 6.50 % |
2.59
|
97.41 |
2.23
|
1.79
|
1.70
|
1.16
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.98
|
99.02 |
0.89
|
0.63
|
0.27
|
0.27
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.168% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.38
|
98.75
|
| 3.50 % |
96.05
|
95% Succ. 3.574% |
3.95 |
95.01
|
93.56
|
91.68
|
89.81
|
| 4.00 % |
81.50
|
80% Succ. 4.048% |
18.50 |
78.79
|
76.09
|
73.18
|
71.52
|
| 4.50 % |
64.45
|
50% Succ. 4.754% |
35.55 |
60.29
|
59.04
|
56.55
|
53.85
|
| 5.00 % |
29.73
|
70.27 |
26.61
|
22.66
|
20.17
|
16.42
|
|
| 5.50 % |
9.77
|
90.23 |
6.65
|
4.78
|
3.74
|
2.29
|
|
| 6.00 % |
1.46
|
98.54 |
1.46
|
1.25
|
0.62
|
0.62
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.62
|
99.38 |
0.42
|
0.42
|
0.42
|
0.42
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.42
|
99.58 |
0.42
|
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio
For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
