Last Update: 31 October 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.653% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 51.06% of cases. In the 44.02% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: October 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.85% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.429%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 70 Years |
1 Nov 1953 |
31 Oct 2023 | 5.265 | 5.429 |
8.85 [ 5.13 ] |
-17.95 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.357 Jul 1901 |
2.431 Jul 1901 |
2.505 Jul 1901 |
2.579 Jul 1901 |
2.653 Jul 1901 |
|
|
95% |
2.613 |
2.682 |
2.745 |
2.808 |
2.874 |
||
|
90% |
2.791 |
2.857 |
2.920 |
2.989 |
3.053 |
||
|
80% |
2.967 |
3.028 |
3.092 |
3.155 |
3.224 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
3.839 |
3.888 |
3.944 |
3.991 |
4.045 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.131 Jun 1920 |
7.175 Jun 1920 |
7.219 Jun 1920 |
7.264 Jun 1920 |
7.308 Jun 1920 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.963 Feb 1937 |
2.999 Feb 1937 |
3.034 Feb 1937 |
3.069 Feb 1937 |
3.105 Feb 1937 |
|
|
95% |
3.284 |
3.320 |
3.356 |
3.392 |
3.429 |
||
|
90% |
3.443 |
3.482 |
3.520 |
3.558 |
3.597 |
||
|
80% |
3.652 |
3.687 |
3.722 |
3.757 |
3.792 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.337 |
4.369 |
4.400 |
4.439 |
4.470 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.883 Jul 1932 |
6.925 Jul 1932 |
6.967 Jul 1932 |
7.009 Jul 1932 |
7.051 Jul 1932 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.653% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.80
|
98.99
|
| 3.00 % |
92.36
|
90% Succ. 3.053% |
7.64 |
89.05
|
85.33
|
81.91
|
78.39
|
| 3.50 % |
67.04
|
32.96 |
64.12
|
62.01
|
59.70
|
57.89
|
|
| 4.00 % |
51.06
|
50% Succ. 4.045% |
48.94 |
49.85
|
48.54
|
46.33
|
44.02
|
| 4.50 % |
36.28
|
63.72 |
34.87
|
33.87
|
32.76
|
32.26
|
|
| 5.00 % |
25.53
|
74.47 |
24.22
|
23.52
|
22.21
|
21.61
|
|
| 5.50 % |
15.38
|
84.62 |
14.27
|
13.27
|
11.46
|
10.45
|
|
| 6.00 % |
6.73
|
93.27 |
5.53
|
4.22
|
3.62
|
3.32
|
|
| 6.50 % |
2.01
|
97.99 |
2.01
|
2.01
|
1.81
|
1.51
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.70
|
99.30 |
0.50
|
0.30
|
0.30
|
0.30
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.105% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
99.17
|
| 3.50 % |
93.35
|
90% Succ. 3.597% |
6.65 |
91.69
|
90.86
|
89.20
|
87.53
|
| 4.00 % |
71.47
|
50% Succ. 4.470% |
28.53 |
69.53
|
67.59
|
64.54
|
62.88
|
| 4.50 % |
48.48
|
51.52 |
47.65
|
47.09
|
45.98
|
44.88
|
|
| 5.00 % |
27.98
|
72.02 |
25.48
|
24.10
|
21.61
|
19.94
|
|
| 5.50 % |
8.86
|
91.14 |
7.76
|
6.93
|
5.82
|
4.99
|
|
| 6.00 % |
2.22
|
97.78 |
1.94
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.55
|
99.45 |
0.55
|
0.55
|
0.55
|
0.55
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.55
|
99.45 |
0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio
For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com