Golden Butterfly Portfolio: 40-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 40-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.153% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 40 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 40 years in the 77.84% of cases. In the 53.37% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 40 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.31% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.503%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
40 Years 1 May 1983
 30 Apr 2023 5.682 6.503 8.31
[ 5.31 ] 		-17.95
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.848
Jun 1892 		2.321
Jun 1892 		2.662
Jul 1901 		2.908
Jul 1901 		3.153
Jul 1901 		3.505
95% Succ. 		3.656
90% Succ. 		3.909
80% Succ. 		5.177
50% Succ.
Median 4.270
 4.494
 4.724
 4.955
 5.177
Average 4.262
 4.505
 4.749
 4.992
 5.236
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		8.129
Jul 1982 		8.327
Jul 1982 		8.525
Jul 1982 		8.723
Jul 1982 		8.921
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.848
 2.482
 2.614
 2.892
 4.270
75% 2.321
 2.734
 2.874
 3.156
 4.494
50% 2.662
 2.994
 3.138
 3.415
 4.724
25% 2.908
 3.266
 3.396
 3.662
 4.955
0% 3.153
 3.505
 3.656
 3.909
 5.177
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		2.458
Feb 1937 		2.734
Feb 1937 		3.009
Feb 1937 		3.285
Feb 1937 		3.560
Feb 1937 		4.077
95% Succ. 		4.326
90% Succ. 		4.826
80% Succ. 		5.356
50% Succ.
Median 4.646
 4.825
 5.007
 5.180
 5.356
Average 4.761
 4.960
 5.159
 5.358
 5.557
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		8.129
Jul 1982 		8.327
Jul 1982 		8.525
Jul 1982 		8.723
Jul 1982 		8.921
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.458
 3.086
 3.338
 3.854
 4.646
75% 2.734
 3.315
 3.584
 4.076
 4.825
50% 3.009
 3.572
 3.828
 4.339
 5.007
25% 3.285
 3.832
 4.081
 4.573
 5.180
0% 3.560
 4.077
 4.326
 4.826
 5.356
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
40 Years
% Fail
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.85
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.56
94.44
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.153% 		0.00
100.00
99.78
94.89
86.66
75.09
3.50 %
95.03
95% Succ.
3.505% 		4.97
95.03
87.10
77.46
68.64
61.45
4.00 %
77.84
22.16
77.84
70.50
64.42
58.49
53.37
4.50 %
66.27
33.73
66.27
61.23
55.82
49.89
43.07
5.00 %
56.93
50% Succ.
5.177% 		43.07
56.93
47.66
38.47
33.14
29.13
5.50 %
37.58
62.42
37.58
30.54
27.28
24.83
21.13
6.00 %
25.87
74.13
25.87
24.02
20.16
17.05
13.71
6.50 %
19.13
80.87
19.13
16.53
13.27
10.01
7.19
7.00 %
11.86
88.14
11.86
8.67
5.04
3.11
1.93
7.50 %
4.37
95.63
4.37
2.74
1.63
0.89
0.67
8.00 %
1.33
98.67
1.33
0.74
0.37
0.30
0.07
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
40 Years
% Fail
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.45
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.92
96.12
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.560% 		0.00
100.00
98.75
96.12
91.54
85.99
4.00 %
96.12
95% Succ.
4.077% 		3.88
96.12
91.26
86.41
81.41
77.12
4.50 %
87.10
80% Succ.
4.826% 		12.90
87.10
81.14
76.98
71.01
59.50
5.00 %
73.51
50% Succ.
5.356% 		26.49
73.51
62.27
50.21
41.47
34.95
5.50 %
43.83
56.17
43.83
36.48
30.93
27.18
23.16
6.00 %
28.29
71.71
28.29
25.38
21.22
18.03
14.56
6.50 %
19.28
80.72
19.28
16.64
12.48
9.57
6.93
7.00 %
10.12
89.88
10.12
6.66
3.33
2.50
2.50
7.50 %
2.50
97.50
2.50
2.36
1.94
1.25
0.97
8.00 %
1.39
98.61
1.39
0.97
0.69
0.55
0.14
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio

For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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