Golden Butterfly Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.543% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 60.3% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.81% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.239%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 5.884 9.239 7.81
[ 5.19 ] 		-17.95
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Sep 1898 		0.192
Jul 1901 		1.780
Jul 1901 		3.369
Jul 1901 		4.543
Jun 1911 		5.089
95% Succ. 		5.383
90% Succ. 		6.400
80% Succ. 		7.681
50% Succ.
Median 4.565
 5.332
 6.101
 6.880
 7.681
Average 4.489
 5.262
 6.053
 6.844
 7.635
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		9.188
Jul 1920 		9.815
Jul 1920 		10.442
Jul 1920 		11.224
Jul 1932 		12.178
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.764
 1.987
 2.940
 4.565
75% 0.192
 1.893
 2.779
 3.773
 5.332
50% 1.780
 2.997
 3.606
 4.594
 6.101
25% 3.369
 4.129
 4.502
 5.484
 6.880
0% 4.543
 5.089
 5.383
 6.400
 7.681
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.758
Mar 1937 		2.625
Mar 1937 		3.492
Mar 1937 		4.359
Mar 1937 		5.216
Feb 1937 		6.018
95% Succ. 		6.478
90% Succ. 		6.855
80% Succ. 		7.876
50% Succ.
Median 4.939
 5.641
 6.373
 7.110
 7.876
Average 4.884
 5.629
 6.374
 7.119
 7.864
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		9.051
Jul 1982 		9.731
Jul 1982 		10.410
Jul 1982 		11.224
Jul 1932 		12.178
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.758
 2.752
 3.122
 3.673
 4.939
75% 2.625
 3.567
 4.013
 4.468
 5.641
50% 3.492
 4.419
 4.844
 5.263
 6.373
25% 4.359
 5.219
 5.751
 6.069
 7.110
0% 5.216
 6.018
 6.478
 6.855
 7.876
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		4.552
May 1998 		5.254
May 1998 		5.957
May 1998 		6.660
May 1998 		7.320
Mar 1973 		7.547
95% Succ. 		7.732
90% Succ. 		7.994
80% Succ. 		8.551
50% Succ.
Median 5.877
 6.536
 7.226
 7.897
 8.551
Average 5.977
 6.639
 7.301
 7.963
 8.625
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		9.051
Jul 1982 		9.731
Jul 1982 		10.410
Jul 1982 		11.089
Jul 1982 		11.768
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 4.552
 4.903
 5.029
 5.216
 5.877
75% 5.254
 5.585
 5.720
 5.903
 6.536
50% 5.957
 6.219
 6.407
 6.603
 7.226
25% 6.660
 6.896
 7.064
 7.298
 7.897
0% 7.320
 7.547
 7.732
 7.994
 8.551
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.87
94.20
89.86
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.80
91.18
86.14
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
94.96
88.28
79.02
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.87
91.24
84.18
71.58
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.47
86.77
76.56
60.30
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.543% 		0.00
100.00
90.04
81.35
67.67
50.98
5.00 %
96.03
95% Succ.
5.089% 		3.97
96.03
83.99
75.05
55.89
43.54
5.50 %
88.59
11.41
88.59
79.84
63.39
47.76
31.38
6.00 %
84.06
80% Succ.
6.400% 		15.94
84.06
71.46
51.92
36.23
22.75
6.50 %
78.39
21.61
78.39
58.16
41.97
26.09
16.07
7.00 %
66.67
33.33
66.67
47.07
29.80
17.90
8.57
7.50 %
54.69
50% Succ.
7.681% 		45.31
54.69
34.59
20.54
10.65
4.73
8.00 %
40.89
59.11
40.89
24.26
13.17
5.80
2.02
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.38
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.71
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.17
92.20
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.90
96.15
83.87
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.54
90.01
70.24
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.38
93.96
78.88
58.48
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.216% 		0.00
100.00
96.98
88.35
64.31
48.07
5.50 %
99.06
0.94
99.06
92.09
73.36
54.01
32.99
6.00 %
95.42
95% Succ.
6.018% 		4.58
95.42
82.62
59.63
39.33
22.48
6.50 %
89.70
80% Succ.
6.855% 		10.30
89.70
66.39
46.20
26.43
14.05
7.00 %
75.13
24.87
75.13
53.28
30.39
16.23
4.58
7.50 %
61.50
50% Succ.
7.876% 		38.50
61.50
35.69
19.15
7.39
1.46
8.00 %
44.64
55.36
44.64
23.93
10.61
2.19
1.04
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
90.86
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.40
64.82
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
74.52
44.32
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
85.60
52.35
26.87
7.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.320% 		0.00
100.00
92.52
59.28
29.92
10.80
7.50 %
96.40
95% Succ.
7.547% 		3.60
96.40
67.04
34.90
14.40
3.32
8.00 %
79.50
20.50
79.50
44.60
19.67
4.99
2.22
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio

For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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