Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.543% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 60.82% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.5% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.919%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Dec 2004 |
30 Nov 2024 | 4.840 | 7.919 |
7.50 [ 4.84 ] |
-17.95 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Golden Butterfly Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Sep 1898 |
0.192 Jul 1901 |
1.780 Jul 1901 |
3.369 Jul 1901 |
4.543 Jun 1911 |
|
95% |
0.772 |
1.896 |
3.011 |
4.132 |
5.095 |
||
90% |
1.997 |
2.795 |
3.612 |
4.522 |
5.398 |
||
80% |
2.959 |
3.790 |
4.656 |
5.517 |
6.417 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.656 |
5.389 |
6.129 |
6.898 |
7.711 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.188 Jul 1920 |
9.815 Jul 1920 |
10.442 Jul 1920 |
11.224 Jul 1932 |
12.178 Jul 1932 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.758 Mar 1937 |
2.625 Mar 1937 |
3.492 Mar 1937 |
4.359 Mar 1937 |
5.216 Feb 1937 |
|
95% |
2.752 |
3.567 |
4.419 |
5.219 |
6.018 |
||
90% |
3.122 |
4.013 |
4.844 |
5.751 |
6.478 |
||
80% |
3.673 |
4.468 |
5.263 |
6.069 |
6.855 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.910 |
5.623 |
6.366 |
7.110 |
7.876 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.051 Jul 1982 |
9.731 Jul 1982 |
10.410 Jul 1982 |
11.224 Jul 1932 |
12.178 Jul 1932 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
4.552 May 1998 |
5.254 May 1998 |
5.957 May 1998 |
6.660 May 1998 |
7.357 Aug 1987 |
|
95% |
4.840 |
5.555 |
6.257 |
6.949 |
7.658 |
||
90% |
4.966 |
5.699 |
6.432 |
7.146 |
7.839 |
||
80% |
5.173 |
5.899 |
6.607 |
7.330 |
8.021 |
||
50% Median WR |
5.845 |
6.528 |
7.211 |
7.873 |
8.554 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.051 Jul 1982 |
9.731 Jul 1982 |
10.410 Jul 1982 |
11.089 Jul 1982 |
11.768 Jul 1982 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.88
|
94.28
|
89.99
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.82
|
91.29
|
86.32
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.02
|
88.43
|
79.29
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.88
|
91.36
|
84.39
|
71.95
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.52
|
86.94
|
76.87
|
60.82
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.543% |
0.00 |
90.17
|
81.59
|
68.10
|
51.62
|
5.00 % |
96.08
|
95% Succ. 5.095% |
3.92 |
84.20
|
75.37
|
56.47
|
43.66
|
5.50 % |
88.74
|
11.26 |
80.10
|
63.87
|
48.38
|
31.09
|
|
6.00 % |
84.27
|
80% Succ. 6.417% |
15.73 |
71.83
|
52.55
|
36.13
|
22.51
|
6.50 % |
78.67
|
21.33 |
58.71
|
42.29
|
25.87
|
15.86
|
|
7.00 % |
67.10
|
32.90 |
47.76
|
29.60
|
17.66
|
8.46
|
|
7.50 % |
55.29
|
50% Succ. 7.711% |
44.71 |
34.83
|
20.34
|
10.51
|
4.66
|
8.00 % |
41.54
|
58.46 |
24.07
|
13.00
|
5.72
|
1.99
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.38
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.71
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.17
|
92.20
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.90
|
96.15
|
83.87
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.54
|
90.01
|
70.24
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.38
|
93.96
|
78.88
|
58.48
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.216% |
0.00 |
96.98
|
88.35
|
64.31
|
47.03
|
5.50 % |
99.06
|
0.94 |
92.09
|
73.36
|
53.90
|
31.01
|
|
6.00 % |
95.42
|
95% Succ. 6.018% |
4.58 |
82.62
|
59.63
|
37.77
|
20.40
|
6.50 % |
89.70
|
80% Succ. 6.855% |
10.30 |
66.39
|
45.47
|
24.45
|
12.38
|
7.00 % |
75.13
|
24.87 |
53.28
|
28.51
|
14.26
|
4.37
|
|
7.50 % |
61.50
|
50% Succ. 7.876% |
38.50 |
34.65
|
17.07
|
6.35
|
1.46
|
8.00 % |
44.43
|
55.57 |
21.96
|
8.95
|
2.19
|
1.04
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.64
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.12
|
62.88
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.72
|
73.13
|
43.21
|
|
6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
86.15
|
51.25
|
26.04
|
|
7.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.357% |
0.00 |
94.46
|
58.45
|
28.81
|
10.53
|
7.50 % |
97.51
|
95% Succ. 7.658% |
2.49 |
68.14
|
34.07
|
13.85
|
3.32
|
8.00 % |
82.55
|
17.45 |
43.77
|
19.11
|
4.71
|
2.22
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Golden Butterfly Portfolio
For the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com