US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.312% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.26% of cases. In the 80.5% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio

Over the last 30 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 10.07% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.68%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.586%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 Nov 1994
 31 Oct 2024 7.566 8.586 10.07
[ 7.36 ] 		-46.68
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		1.318
Jun 1902 		2.155
Jun 1902 		2.981
Sep 1929 		3.146
Sep 1929 		3.312
Sep 1929
95%
 3.213
 3.509
 3.804
 4.120
 4.408
90%
 3.500
 3.791
 4.066
 4.347
 4.659
80%
 4.016
 4.334
 4.629
 4.920
 5.176
50%
Median WR 		6.091
 6.318
 6.594
 6.895
 7.225
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		15.051
Jul 1932 		15.248
Jul 1932 		15.444
Jul 1932 		15.641
Jul 1932 		15.838
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		2.649
Sep 1929 		2.815
Sep 1929 		2.981
Sep 1929 		3.146
Sep 1929 		3.312
Sep 1929
95%
 3.400
 3.607
 3.843
 4.052
 4.285
90%
 3.680
 3.906
 4.129
 4.373
 4.595
80%
 4.267
 4.537
 4.767
 5.021
 5.269
50%
Median WR 		6.780
 7.032
 7.269
 7.494
 7.732
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		15.051
Jul 1932 		15.248
Jul 1932 		15.444
Jul 1932 		15.641
Jul 1932 		15.838
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		5.806
Sep 1987 		6.077
Sep 1987 		6.348
Sep 1987 		6.619
Sep 1987 		6.890
Sep 1987
95%
 6.386
 6.624
 6.840
 7.052
 7.273
90%
 6.572
 6.839
 7.079
 7.327
 7.570
80%
 6.926
 7.206
 7.480
 7.727
 7.973
50%
Median WR 		7.549
 7.806
 8.079
 8.331
 8.600
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		11.522
Aug 1982 		11.837
Aug 1982 		12.152
Aug 1982 		12.467
Aug 1982 		12.782
Aug 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.80
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.87
99.60
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.312% 		0.00
100.00
99.87
99.53
97.71
3.50 %
99.87
0.13
99.80
99.46
95.16
90.05
4.00 %
99.26
95% Succ.
4.408% 		0.74
96.70
91.06
86.75
80.50
4.50 %
93.61
90% Succ.
4.659% 		6.39
87.49
82.58
76.87
70.88
5.00 %
83.25
80% Succ.
5.176% 		16.75
78.61
74.45
67.85
61.40
5.50 %
75.86
24.14
71.55
65.77
58.24
54.61
6.00 %
68.73
31.27
63.62
56.83
53.19
50.64
6.50 %
61.67
38.33
55.28
51.24
48.42
44.79
7.00 %
53.33
50% Succ.
7.225% 		46.67
48.62
45.66
42.23
37.12
7.50 %
46.00
54.00
42.70
37.73
33.56
28.72
8.00 %
38.94
61.06
34.50
30.46
25.42
20.51
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.312% 		0.00
100.00
99.88
99.76
99.64
3.50 %
99.76
0.24
99.64
99.52
97.50
92.63
4.00 %
98.69
95% Succ.
4.285% 		1.31
95.96
92.03
88.94
84.42
4.50 %
91.80
90% Succ.
4.595% 		8.20
88.11
83.83
80.26
76.46
5.00 %
83.95
80% Succ.
5.269% 		16.05
80.14
77.05
73.48
70.15
5.50 %
77.41
22.59
73.96
70.75
67.30
65.40
6.00 %
71.11
28.89
68.85
65.99
63.14
60.29
6.50 %
66.59
33.41
63.61
60.40
57.55
53.63
7.00 %
60.64
39.36
56.60
53.75
50.65
44.71
7.50 %
53.39
50% Succ.
7.732% 		46.61
49.82
44.47
39.60
32.94
8.00 %
45.18
54.82
40.07
35.32
28.18
22.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.17
6.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
6.890% 		0.00
100.00
99.59
97.51
91.29
7.00 %
99.59
95% Succ.
7.273% 		0.41
96.27
91.70
86.72
76.76
7.50 %
90.87
90% Succ.
7.570% 		9.13
86.72
76.76
65.15
51.87
8.00 %
78.42
21.58
65.56
54.36
39.83
29.46
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com