US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.87% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 61.96% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.06% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -19.62%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 12.211%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Nov 2014
 31 Oct 2024 4.002 12.211 7.06
[ 4.05 ] 		-19.62
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
May 1908 		0.000
Mar 1910 		1.966
Jul 1911 		5.097
Jul 1911 		7.870
Dec 1915
95%
 0.000
 1.518
 4.183
 6.633
 8.923
90%
 0.150
 2.522
 4.896
 7.319
 9.848
80%
 2.064
 4.346
 6.472
 8.566
 10.699
50%
Median WR 		4.799
 6.761
 8.713
 10.656
 12.669
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		13.303
Jun 1920 		14.616
Jun 1920 		16.370
Jul 1932 		18.814
Jul 1932 		21.258
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Dec 1938 		0.202
Jul 1972 		2.921
Jul 1972 		5.606
Jun 1972 		7.968
Jan 1973
95%
 0.000
 1.651
 4.363
 6.992
 9.453
90%
 0.238
 2.720
 5.120
 7.576
 9.971
80%
 2.244
 4.408
 6.492
 8.575
 10.684
50%
Median WR 		4.719
 6.685
 8.635
 10.632
 12.624
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		12.294
Aug 1982 		13.925
Jul 1932 		16.370
Jul 1932 		18.814
Jul 1932 		21.258
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Feb 1999 		1.999
Mar 1999 		4.922
Mar 1999 		7.392
Sep 2000 		9.691
Sep 2000
95%
 1.411
 3.599
 5.960
 8.286
 10.594
90%
 2.853
 4.925
 7.058
 9.076
 10.901
80%
 3.965
 5.860
 7.715
 9.536
 11.353
50%
Median WR 		6.013
 7.860
 9.687
 11.485
 13.327
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		12.294
Aug 1982 		13.894
Aug 1982 		15.494
Aug 1982 		17.095
Aug 1982 		18.697
Jul 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.94
92.70
80.31
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.48
90.10
77.01
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.13
87.15
73.02
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.03
84.08
68.44
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.41
81.99
61.96
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.53
78.17
54.83
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
89.17
73.60
48.12
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.65
85.93
69.20
43.14
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.38
82.92
61.67
37.46
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
95.83
79.73
53.85
31.85
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
92.36
75.10
47.13
25.59
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.870% 		0.00
88.59
68.96
41.46
20.96
8.00 %
99.71
0.29
84.60
61.73
35.50
16.79
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.34
80.85
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
91.03
78.17
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.72
87.60
75.02
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.89
84.09
69.84
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.41
82.05
61.79
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.08
79.00
53.19
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.03
75.30
47.27
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
86.96
70.40
42.09
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.89
82.70
61.05
36.36
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.59
79.83
52.08
30.53
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
94.91
75.95
46.25
24.51
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.968% 		0.00
90.93
69.57
40.61
18.96
8.00 %
99.81
0.19
85.01
59.94
34.41
13.32
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.79
93.56
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.17
91.27
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
97.71
89.40
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
95.22
88.36
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
94.39
78.59
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
91.89
66.94
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.38
89.60
61.12
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.30
88.15
56.55
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.59
76.09
50.10
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.14
64.66
42.00
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.02
60.08
34.72
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.79
85.65
54.47
28.27
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
96.05
72.35
47.40
21.21
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com