Last Update: 31 August 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.823% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 47.79% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: August 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.31% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.12%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.981%.
Timeframes ending at Aug 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Sep 2004 |
31 Aug 2024 | 3.570 | 6.981 |
6.31 [ 3.65 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Aug 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jan 1899 |
0.644 Jul 1901 |
2.157 Jul 1901 |
3.670 Jul 1901 |
4.823 Jul 1911 |
|
95% |
1.064 |
2.143 |
3.244 |
4.274 |
5.178 |
||
90% |
1.480 |
2.565 |
3.551 |
4.512 |
5.384 |
||
80% |
2.395 |
3.262 |
4.059 |
4.887 |
5.744 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.847 |
4.725 |
5.625 |
6.460 |
7.285 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
10.054 Jul 1982 |
10.670 Jul 1982 |
11.286 Jul 1982 |
11.902 Jul 1982 |
12.518 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Oct 1961 |
1.441 Oct 1961 |
2.875 Apr 1962 |
4.026 May 1965 |
4.845 Sep 1968 |
|
95% |
1.316 |
2.395 |
3.416 |
4.328 |
5.162 |
||
90% |
1.965 |
2.807 |
3.686 |
4.594 |
5.462 |
||
80% |
2.480 |
3.370 |
4.182 |
5.082 |
5.882 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.738 |
4.538 |
5.400 |
6.279 |
7.162 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
10.054 Jul 1982 |
10.670 Jul 1982 |
11.286 Jul 1982 |
11.902 Jul 1982 |
12.518 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.736 Apr 2000 |
3.569 Apr 2000 |
4.402 Apr 2000 |
5.234 Apr 2000 |
6.067 Apr 2000 |
|
95% |
3.198 |
3.990 |
4.760 |
5.553 |
6.313 |
||
90% |
3.330 |
4.137 |
5.023 |
5.850 |
6.578 |
||
80% |
3.745 |
4.553 |
5.377 |
6.212 |
7.060 |
||
50% Median WR |
5.326 |
6.078 |
6.867 |
7.618 |
8.319 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
10.054 Jul 1982 |
10.670 Jul 1982 |
11.286 Jul 1982 |
11.902 Jul 1982 |
12.518 Jul 1982 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.20
|
85.92
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.50
|
90.97
|
78.32
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.94
|
84.05
|
68.66
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.78
|
75.14
|
57.01
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.56
|
81.31
|
63.43
|
47.79
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.823% |
0.00 |
90.34
|
70.59
|
53.21
|
41.74
|
5.00 % |
98.01
|
95% Succ. 5.178% |
1.99 |
77.45
|
60.75
|
45.67
|
33.96
|
5.50 % |
86.67
|
80% Succ. 5.744% |
13.33 |
67.73
|
51.34
|
38.69
|
26.23
|
6.00 % |
75.08
|
24.92 |
57.69
|
43.55
|
31.15
|
20.37
|
|
6.50 % |
67.23
|
32.77 |
49.41
|
35.33
|
22.37
|
16.20
|
|
7.00 % |
56.07
|
50% Succ. 7.285% |
43.93 |
40.93
|
27.17
|
17.76
|
12.52
|
7.50 % |
46.23
|
53.77 |
31.71
|
19.63
|
13.46
|
9.60
|
|
8.00 % |
38.26
|
61.74 |
22.99
|
15.58
|
10.34
|
6.60
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.92
|
89.49
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.86
|
79.40
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.27
|
86.99
|
67.85
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.65
|
76.69
|
55.98
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
84.81
|
63.68
|
45.37
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.845% |
0.00 |
91.78
|
73.88
|
51.30
|
39.96
|
5.00 % |
97.81
|
95% Succ. 5.162% |
2.19 |
81.48
|
60.67
|
43.60
|
29.76
|
5.50 % |
89.28
|
80% Succ. 5.882% |
10.72 |
70.45
|
48.91
|
36.42
|
20.19
|
6.00 % |
78.15
|
21.85 |
56.40
|
41.83
|
26.01
|
14.15
|
|
6.50 % |
68.68
|
31.32 |
46.72
|
32.26
|
16.13
|
10.93
|
|
7.00 % |
54.63
|
50% Succ. 7.162% |
45.37 |
38.61
|
21.85
|
12.28
|
7.91
|
7.50 % |
43.91
|
56.09 |
28.10
|
13.63
|
8.32
|
5.93
|
|
8.00 % |
36.42
|
63.58 |
17.27
|
10.30
|
6.45
|
3.54
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.17
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
86.70
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.46
|
76.45
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.72
|
81.99
|
73.68
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.30
|
75.62
|
62.33
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.84
|
78.39
|
67.87
|
43.49
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.067% |
0.00 |
85.87
|
73.13
|
53.74
|
30.47
|
6.50 % |
92.24
|
90% Succ. 6.578% |
7.76 |
76.45
|
60.66
|
34.63
|
24.10
|
7.00 % |
81.44
|
80% Succ. 7.060% |
18.56 |
65.37
|
45.15
|
25.76
|
21.05
|
7.50 % |
69.53
|
30.47 |
54.02
|
28.81
|
21.05
|
15.79
|
|
8.00 % |
60.11
|
39.89 |
35.73
|
22.16
|
17.17
|
9.42
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com