Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.19% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.827%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 2.346 | 2.827 |
6.19 [ 2.56 ] |
-16.14 Sep 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.026 May 1911 |
1.312 May 1911 |
1.462 Aug 1939 |
1.568 Aug 1939 |
1.674 Aug 1939 |
1.806 95% Succ. |
1.929 90% Succ. |
2.218 80% Succ. |
2.566 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.061 |
2.192 |
2.304 |
2.425 |
2.566 | |||||
Average |
2.293 |
2.444 |
2.596 |
2.748 |
2.899 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.948 Feb 1873 |
6.053 Feb 1873 |
6.158 Feb 1873 |
6.263 Feb 1873 |
6.368 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.026 |
1.322 |
1.415 |
1.503 |
2.061 |
75% |
1.312 |
1.455 |
1.568 |
1.677 |
2.192 |
|
50% |
1.462 |
1.587 |
1.706 |
1.823 |
2.304 |
|
25% |
1.568 |
1.696 |
1.826 |
2.021 |
2.425 |
|
0% |
1.674 |
1.806 |
1.929 |
2.218 |
2.566 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.250 Aug 1939 |
1.356 Aug 1939 |
1.462 Aug 1939 |
1.568 Aug 1939 |
1.674 Aug 1939 |
1.721 95% Succ. |
1.774 90% Succ. |
1.878 80% Succ. |
2.376 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.961 |
2.068 |
2.174 |
2.280 |
2.376 | |||||
Average |
1.928 |
2.037 |
2.145 |
2.254 |
2.362 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
2.909 Nov 1923 |
3.042 Nov 1923 |
3.175 Nov 1923 |
3.307 Nov 1923 |
3.440 Nov 1923 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.250 |
1.306 |
1.347 |
1.452 |
1.961 |
75% |
1.356 |
1.414 |
1.453 |
1.558 |
2.068 |
|
50% |
1.462 |
1.514 |
1.556 |
1.665 |
2.174 |
|
25% |
1.568 |
1.614 |
1.665 |
1.773 |
2.280 |
|
0% |
1.674 |
1.721 |
1.774 |
1.878 |
2.376 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
84.43
|
80% Succ. 2.218% |
15.57 |
84.43
|
80.59
|
64.21
|
54.70
|
51.47
|
2.50 % |
54.20
|
50% Succ. 2.566% |
45.80 |
54.20
|
47.02
|
42.97
|
33.77
|
28.51
|
3.00 % |
32.76
|
67.24 |
32.76
|
27.91
|
23.96
|
21.13
|
17.49
|
|
3.50 % |
20.32
|
79.68 |
20.32
|
17.69
|
14.56
|
12.84
|
10.21
|
|
4.00 % |
12.64
|
87.36 |
12.64
|
9.91
|
9.40
|
8.49
|
7.89
|
|
4.50 % |
8.19
|
91.81 |
8.19
|
7.38
|
6.77
|
6.27
|
5.76
|
|
5.00 % |
5.66
|
94.34 |
5.66
|
5.26
|
5.16
|
4.75
|
4.65
|
|
5.50 % |
3.94
|
96.06 |
3.94
|
3.64
|
3.34
|
3.03
|
2.43
|
|
6.00 % |
1.82
|
98.18 |
1.82
|
1.31
|
0.51
|
0.30
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
57.34
|
50% Succ. 2.376% |
42.66 |
57.34
|
54.85
|
53.19
|
52.08
|
47.92
|
2.50 % |
42.94
|
57.06 |
42.94
|
35.18
|
30.19
|
17.73
|
12.74
|
|
3.00 % |
12.74
|
87.26 |
12.74
|
10.53
|
3.60
|
1.39
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com