Last Update: 28 February 2023
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 4.89% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.518%.
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 Mar 1993 |
28 Feb 2023 | 2.764 | 5.518 |
4.89 [ 2.34 ] |
-16.14 Sep 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1940 |
0.620 May 1940 |
1.413 May 1940 |
2.190 Nov 1940 |
2.929 Jan 1941 |
3.304 95% Succ. |
3.450 90% Succ. |
3.754 80% Succ. |
4.262 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.279 |
2.751 |
3.217 |
3.799 |
4.262 | |||||
Average |
2.662 |
3.237 |
3.812 |
4.388 |
4.964 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
7.782 Apr 1873 |
8.194 Apr 1873 |
8.618 Mar 1873 |
9.044 Mar 1873 |
9.475 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.284 |
0.598 |
0.947 |
2.279 |
75% |
0.620 |
1.121 |
1.339 |
1.696 |
2.751 |
|
50% |
1.413 |
1.845 |
2.096 |
2.437 |
3.217 |
|
25% |
2.190 |
2.566 |
2.783 |
3.149 |
3.799 |
|
0% |
2.929 |
3.304 |
3.450 |
3.754 |
4.262 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1940 |
0.620 May 1940 |
1.413 May 1940 |
2.190 Nov 1940 |
2.929 Jan 1941 |
3.138 95% Succ. |
3.330 90% Succ. |
3.680 80% Succ. |
4.143 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.102 |
2.617 |
3.136 |
3.566 |
4.143 | |||||
Average |
2.418 |
2.999 |
3.580 |
4.162 |
4.744 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
7.664 Oct 1981 |
8.069 Oct 1981 |
8.474 Oct 1981 |
8.878 Oct 1981 |
9.283 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.128 |
0.360 |
0.702 |
2.102 |
75% |
0.620 |
0.912 |
1.160 |
1.408 |
2.617 |
|
50% |
1.413 |
1.648 |
1.897 |
2.193 |
3.136 |
|
25% |
2.190 |
2.393 |
2.606 |
2.975 |
3.566 |
|
0% |
2.929 |
3.138 |
3.330 |
3.680 |
4.143 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.30
|
73.48
|
62.24
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.929% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.18
|
78.66
|
61.76
|
43.56
|
3.00 % |
98.98
|
95% Succ. 3.304% |
1.02 |
98.98
|
85.34
|
60.46
|
44.99
|
36.13
|
3.50 % |
89.03
|
80% Succ. 3.754% |
10.97 |
89.03
|
59.99
|
44.85
|
36.74
|
28.77
|
4.00 % |
61.83
|
50% Succ. 4.262% |
38.17 |
61.83
|
44.10
|
36.67
|
30.20
|
22.02
|
4.50 % |
47.03
|
52.97 |
47.03
|
39.47
|
32.65
|
21.95
|
13.97
|
|
5.00 % |
41.58
|
58.42 |
41.58
|
32.65
|
22.77
|
14.72
|
11.04
|
|
5.50 % |
32.86
|
67.14 |
32.86
|
23.79
|
14.93
|
10.91
|
9.20
|
|
6.00 % |
25.49
|
74.51 |
25.49
|
15.00
|
10.97
|
8.73
|
6.20
|
|
6.50 % |
14.93
|
85.07 |
14.93
|
11.11
|
8.66
|
6.13
|
4.43
|
|
7.00 % |
11.38
|
88.62 |
11.38
|
8.38
|
5.86
|
4.02
|
2.52
|
|
7.50 % |
8.11
|
91.89 |
8.11
|
5.59
|
3.68
|
2.11
|
0.82
|
|
8.00 % |
5.32
|
94.68 |
5.32
|
3.34
|
1.91
|
0.48
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
86.56
|
66.94
|
54.46
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.929% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.34
|
71.46
|
53.98
|
41.62
|
3.00 % |
98.22
|
95% Succ. 3.138% |
1.78 |
98.22
|
79.79
|
53.27
|
43.88
|
34.36
|
3.50 % |
84.07
|
80% Succ. 3.680% |
15.93 |
84.07
|
52.44
|
43.88
|
34.84
|
25.68
|
4.00 % |
58.03
|
50% Succ. 4.143% |
41.97 |
58.03
|
42.09
|
34.13
|
27.11
|
19.50
|
4.50 % |
42.93
|
57.07 |
42.93
|
36.98
|
30.20
|
18.43
|
10.46
|
|
5.00 % |
37.57
|
62.43 |
37.57
|
29.85
|
18.43
|
10.46
|
8.44
|
|
5.50 % |
29.25
|
70.75 |
29.25
|
18.91
|
9.99
|
8.09
|
7.25
|
|
6.00 % |
20.45
|
79.55 |
20.45
|
9.75
|
7.97
|
6.42
|
3.80
|
|
6.50 % |
9.39
|
90.61 |
9.39
|
7.97
|
5.71
|
3.69
|
2.50
|
|
7.00 % |
7.97
|
92.03 |
7.97
|
5.23
|
3.33
|
2.14
|
0.83
|
|
7.50 % |
4.76
|
95.24 |
4.76
|
3.33
|
1.90
|
0.59
|
0.24
|
|
8.00 % |
2.85
|
97.15 |
2.85
|
1.78
|
0.59
|
0.24
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com