Last Update: 28 February 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 3.74% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.14%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.331%.
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Mar 2003 |
28 Feb 2023 | 1.363 | 6.331 |
3.74 [ 1.22 ] |
-16.14 Sep 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jul 1897 |
0.000 Jun 1900 |
1.689 Jul 1900 |
3.002 Aug 1939 |
4.145 Jan 1941 |
4.689 95% Succ. |
4.817 90% Succ. |
5.060 80% Succ. |
6.327 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.486 |
3.333 |
4.241 |
5.258 |
6.327 | |||||
Average |
2.831 |
3.744 |
4.714 |
5.685 |
6.656 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.819 Oct 1981 |
9.476 Oct 1981 |
10.134 Oct 1981 |
10.792 Oct 1981 |
11.450 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.017 |
0.546 |
2.486 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.835 |
1.272 |
1.669 |
3.333 |
|
50% |
1.689 |
2.180 |
2.503 |
2.829 |
4.241 |
|
25% |
3.002 |
3.537 |
3.681 |
3.980 |
5.258 |
|
0% |
4.145 |
4.689 |
4.817 |
5.060 |
6.327 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1933 |
0.315 Oct 1961 |
1.768 Aug 1939 |
3.002 Aug 1939 |
4.145 Jan 1941 |
4.503 95% Succ. |
4.735 90% Succ. |
4.985 80% Succ. |
6.105 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.219 |
3.019 |
4.031 |
5.056 |
6.105 | |||||
Average |
2.497 |
3.455 |
4.459 |
5.462 |
6.466 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.819 Oct 1981 |
9.476 Oct 1981 |
10.134 Oct 1981 |
10.792 Oct 1981 |
11.450 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.460 |
2.219 |
75% |
0.315 |
0.862 |
1.192 |
1.565 |
3.019 |
|
50% |
1.768 |
2.160 |
2.412 |
2.672 |
4.031 |
|
25% |
3.002 |
3.426 |
3.644 |
3.878 |
5.056 |
|
0% |
4.145 |
4.503 |
4.735 |
4.985 |
6.105 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.327 Nov 2002 |
2.575 Jan 2003 |
3.811 Jan 2003 |
4.691 Mar 1973 |
5.355 Mar 1973 |
6.264 95% Succ. |
6.384 90% Succ. |
6.500 80% Succ. |
7.449 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.159 |
4.986 |
5.838 |
6.649 |
7.449 | |||||
Average |
4.392 |
5.202 |
6.011 |
6.821 |
7.631 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.819 Oct 1981 |
9.476 Oct 1981 |
10.134 Oct 1981 |
10.792 Oct 1981 |
11.450 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.327 |
2.412 |
2.699 |
3.072 |
4.159 |
75% |
2.575 |
3.394 |
3.624 |
3.931 |
4.986 |
|
50% |
3.811 |
4.279 |
4.489 |
4.840 |
5.838 |
|
25% |
4.691 |
5.176 |
5.430 |
5.692 |
6.649 |
|
0% |
5.355 |
6.264 |
6.384 |
6.500 |
7.449 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.10
|
74.48
|
56.21
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.04
|
65.03
|
49.84
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
77.32
|
55.07
|
40.77
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.65
|
65.09
|
48.27
|
35.92
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.145% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
79.02
|
53.37
|
41.84
|
30.12
|
4.50 % |
96.85
|
95% Succ. 4.689% |
3.15 |
96.85
|
63.01
|
47.57
|
33.77
|
24.57
|
5.00 % |
81.47
|
80% Succ. 5.060% |
18.53 |
81.47
|
53.56
|
41.27
|
28.42
|
17.58
|
5.50 % |
65.78
|
34.22 |
65.78
|
48.02
|
32.26
|
22.31
|
13.11
|
|
6.00 % |
53.88
|
50% Succ. 6.327% |
46.12 |
53.88
|
39.38
|
26.21
|
15.37
|
11.22
|
6.50 % |
46.19
|
53.81 |
46.19
|
32.14
|
19.91
|
11.78
|
8.95
|
|
7.00 % |
39.51
|
60.49 |
39.51
|
24.89
|
13.80
|
9.64
|
6.05
|
|
7.50 % |
30.75
|
69.25 |
30.75
|
17.64
|
10.59
|
7.12
|
4.22
|
|
8.00 % |
23.50
|
76.50 |
23.50
|
12.22
|
8.07
|
4.79
|
2.58
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.88
|
70.03
|
51.09
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.14
|
61.39
|
45.68
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
75.44
|
51.09
|
36.73
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.76
|
61.81
|
44.64
|
33.19
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.145% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
77.00
|
51.40
|
38.19
|
25.70
|
4.50 % |
95.01
|
95% Succ. 4.503% |
4.99 |
95.01
|
63.27
|
43.70
|
30.39
|
18.52
|
5.00 % |
79.50
|
20.50 |
79.50
|
52.13
|
37.67
|
23.62
|
11.76
|
|
5.50 % |
67.01
|
32.99 |
67.01
|
44.54
|
27.99
|
16.02
|
7.70
|
|
6.00 % |
52.76
|
50% Succ. 6.105% |
47.24 |
52.76
|
34.86
|
21.12
|
9.47
|
6.97
|
6.50 % |
41.83
|
58.17 |
41.83
|
28.82
|
14.05
|
6.97
|
4.68
|
|
7.00 % |
34.86
|
65.14 |
34.86
|
19.88
|
8.22
|
5.52
|
2.91
|
|
7.50 % |
27.68
|
72.32 |
27.68
|
12.28
|
6.66
|
3.54
|
1.87
|
|
8.00 % |
18.63
|
81.37 |
18.63
|
6.87
|
4.16
|
2.19
|
0.83
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.95
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.18
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.95
|
81.44
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.52
|
73.41
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
78.39
|
55.68
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.75
|
65.37
|
37.95
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.355% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.06
|
75.62
|
49.58
|
24.93
|
5.50 % |
98.89
|
1.11 |
98.89
|
88.64
|
58.17
|
31.30
|
20.50
|
|
6.00 % |
96.40
|
95% Succ. 6.264% |
3.60 |
96.40
|
66.76
|
42.66
|
21.88
|
18.56
|
6.50 % |
80.06
|
80% Succ. 6.500% |
19.94 |
80.06
|
53.19
|
26.04
|
18.56
|
12.47
|
7.00 % |
64.54
|
50% Succ. 7.449% |
35.46 |
64.54
|
38.23
|
20.22
|
14.68
|
7.76
|
7.50 % |
48.75
|
51.25 |
48.75
|
21.33
|
17.73
|
9.42
|
4.99
|
|
8.00 % |
30.47
|
69.53 |
30.47
|
18.01
|
11.08
|
5.82
|
2.22
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 10/90 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com