Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 40-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.834% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 40 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 40 years in the 29.9% of cases. In the 10.53% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 40 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio
Over the last 40 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.74% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.775%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 40 Years |
1 Dec 1984 |
30 Nov 2024 | 3.916 | 5.775 |
5.74 [ 2.87 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1938 |
0.157 Sep 1941 |
1.008 Aug 1941 |
1.834 Feb 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.233 |
0.875 |
1.490 |
2.068 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.462 |
1.045 |
1.609 |
2.248 |
||
|
80% |
1.010 |
1.482 |
1.971 |
2.410 |
2.784 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.786 |
2.193 |
2.576 |
2.905 |
3.271 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.738 Mar 1873 |
7.071 Mar 1873 |
7.403 Mar 1873 |
7.736 Mar 1873 |
8.070 Feb 1873 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1938 |
0.157 Sep 1941 |
1.008 Aug 1941 |
1.834 Feb 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.556 |
1.284 |
1.997 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.243 |
0.884 |
1.493 |
2.073 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.511 |
1.085 |
1.644 |
2.290 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.744 |
2.136 |
2.553 |
2.829 |
3.101 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.422 Sep 1981 |
6.748 Sep 1981 |
7.074 Sep 1981 |
7.400 Sep 1981 |
7.726 Sep 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
97.30
|
95% Succ. 2.068% |
2.70 |
87.21
|
78.95
|
60.96
|
39.62
|
| 2.50 % |
87.06
|
80% Succ. 2.784% |
12.94 |
75.22
|
55.12
|
32.68
|
24.34
|
| 3.00 % |
69.30
|
50% Succ. 3.271% |
30.70 |
46.35
|
32.31
|
22.30
|
17.32
|
| 3.50 % |
43.42
|
56.58 |
30.85
|
21.56
|
17.25
|
12.43
|
|
| 4.00 % |
29.90
|
70.10 |
22.22
|
14.99
|
11.92
|
10.53
|
|
| 4.50 % |
20.39
|
79.61 |
14.99
|
11.62
|
9.80
|
7.46
|
|
| 5.00 % |
15.06
|
84.94 |
11.33
|
9.36
|
7.16
|
5.92
|
|
| 5.50 % |
11.04
|
88.96 |
9.06
|
6.58
|
5.70
|
4.82
|
|
| 6.00 % |
8.26
|
91.74 |
6.14
|
5.19
|
3.51
|
2.34
|
|
| 6.50 % |
5.70
|
94.30 |
4.53
|
2.70
|
1.90
|
0.37
|
|
| 7.00 % |
3.51
|
96.49 |
2.12
|
1.17
|
0.22
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
1.68
|
98.32 |
0.37
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.22
|
99.78 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
94.87
|
90% Succ. 2.073% |
5.13 |
75.73
|
66.57
|
54.23
|
42.72
|
| 2.50 % |
75.45
|
24.55 |
64.91
|
52.98
|
29.26
|
26.49
|
|
| 3.00 % |
57.70
|
50% Succ. 3.101% |
42.30 |
39.81
|
27.46
|
21.50
|
18.03
|
| 3.50 % |
35.78
|
64.22 |
24.13
|
18.31
|
17.20
|
11.65
|
|
| 4.00 % |
21.78
|
78.22 |
17.48
|
12.21
|
10.82
|
9.43
|
|
| 4.50 % |
13.04
|
86.96 |
11.10
|
10.12
|
8.32
|
5.27
|
|
| 5.00 % |
10.40
|
89.60 |
9.43
|
8.04
|
4.99
|
3.74
|
|
| 5.50 % |
8.88
|
91.12 |
7.63
|
4.30
|
3.61
|
2.77
|
|
| 6.00 % |
6.52
|
93.48 |
3.88
|
3.33
|
1.53
|
0.42
|
|
| 6.50 % |
3.61
|
96.39 |
2.64
|
0.83
|
0.42
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
1.80
|
98.20 |
0.42
|
0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.28
|
99.72 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
