Last Update: 31 December 2024
Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.384% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 9.74% of cases. In the 5.58% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 60 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio
Over the last 60 years (last update: December 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.98% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.627%.
Timeframes ending at Dec 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
60 Years |
1 Jan 1965 |
31 Dec 2024 | 1.813 | 2.627 |
5.98 [ 1.97 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Dec 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.629 Oct 1915 |
0.844 Aug 1939 |
1.026 Aug 1939 |
1.207 Aug 1939 |
1.384 Feb 1941 |
|
95% |
0.713 |
0.935 |
1.135 |
1.337 |
1.536 |
||
90% |
0.761 |
1.008 |
1.234 |
1.424 |
1.617 |
||
80% |
0.951 |
1.198 |
1.476 |
1.782 |
2.085 |
||
50% Median WR |
1.403 |
1.703 |
1.986 |
2.248 |
2.457 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
5.749 Mar 1873 |
5.890 Mar 1873 |
6.032 Mar 1873 |
6.175 Feb 1873 |
6.321 Feb 1873 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.663 Aug 1939 |
0.844 Aug 1939 |
1.026 Aug 1939 |
1.207 Aug 1939 |
1.384 Feb 1941 |
|
95% |
0.703 |
0.902 |
1.079 |
1.251 |
1.434 |
||
90% |
0.722 |
0.929 |
1.130 |
1.330 |
1.524 |
||
80% |
0.796 |
0.992 |
1.192 |
1.393 |
1.591 |
||
50% Median WR |
1.461 |
1.703 |
1.910 |
2.081 |
2.263 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
2.291 Oct 1959 |
2.439 Oct 1959 |
2.586 Oct 1959 |
2.733 Oct 1959 |
2.881 Oct 1959 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
82.91
|
80% Succ. 2.085% |
17.09 |
62.62
|
49.25
|
36.40
|
24.00
|
2.50 % |
47.65
|
52.35 |
30.91
|
20.81
|
16.12
|
14.97
|
|
3.00 % |
22.05
|
77.95 |
16.92
|
15.06
|
13.02
|
11.69
|
|
3.50 % |
14.97
|
85.03 |
12.58
|
10.10
|
8.77
|
7.00
|
|
4.00 % |
9.74
|
90.26 |
7.00
|
6.55
|
6.02
|
5.58
|
|
4.50 % |
5.93
|
94.07 |
5.49
|
5.05
|
4.61
|
4.34
|
|
5.00 % |
4.61
|
95.39 |
4.25
|
3.81
|
3.10
|
2.75
|
|
5.50 % |
3.19
|
96.81 |
2.66
|
2.13
|
1.42
|
0.62
|
|
6.00 % |
1.24
|
98.76 |
0.44
|
0.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
61.54
|
50% Succ. 2.263% |
38.46 |
54.68
|
44.49
|
29.11
|
11.85
|
2.50 % |
35.34
|
64.66 |
7.48
|
1.66
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com